RE: Siggins / Copilot17 Apr 2026 13:44
I asked chatGPT last night about where the SP could go. I included detail of the macro environment, credentials of Michael, Max, Erich & David (providing their background), Alaska LNG project and recent Alaskan lease sale. It said there are 3 main things to watch for when the RNS drops about the farm-in:
1. Operator - mid-tier like Conocophillips/Hilcorp would be the best. Highly unlikely a supermajor would be involved. Anything less will not be as effective.
2. Capex carry - full funding to first development the best scenario but likely it could be the majority of development costs. To see them take a majority stake and full operatorship is really bullish
3. the $ barrel valuation given to the asset. 4-6$ ideal but 7-8$ the highest that could be expected.
ChatGPT gave me a CONVICTION target of 70p (based on 400mn BBLS recoverable). It expected a mid-tier to be involved, negotiations optimised because of Michael and the outfit more approachable and credible due to the previous experience in BP, Hilcorp & Microsoft. But of course, none of this can alter the geology if this is the stumbling block.
It also anticipated these negotiations will take 3-9 months. Anything like an MOU or an understanding will not have the required effect.