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Raise at a premium and added in the TU to support decision.
Need to read it all again but on face looks a solid tuck away. May briefly dip below 40 with market malaise but imo this is pretty much as low as it will go obviously macro aside.
Usual caveats
Trek
totally agree amongst the wreckage of last 18 months and from the Biodesix ancnt the world is in a post covid catch up .
diagnostics should be worth a lot of money at some point . probably more than current market cap . so you get immunoinsights for nothing. this high margin high growth area with the worlds biggest Pharma cos is testamount to their tech , and the ex boss of Syneos healthcare has joined the board . this has huge upside
Certain directors intending to subscribe for £1.2mln- I am guessing a large proportion of that is from the new Chairman Alistair. I guessing the new appointed non-exe director John Goold who just started a new fund listed on LSE will also invest. This looks like insiders taking a position before the company reaches inflexion point next year with EarlyCDT Lung expected to grow significantly over the short-term as Biodesix their US distributor raises $90mil to fund expansion. I have high hopes for this one 12 months from now. GLA, DYOR, IMO.
Good question Gamblors, I did not find the royalty numbers. But it does say Biodesix will pay Oncimmune a total of $28 million over five years. I am guessing this is equivalent to the licensing rights for EarlyCDT excluding COGS and Royalty.
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/medtech/biodesix-acquires-oncimmune-s-u-s-lab-for-rule-lung-nodule-cancer-blood-test
Do you know what the onc agreement with biodesix provides, in terms of royalty / milestone payments? I had a track back through rns announcements on the arrangement + accounts but couldn't see this detail . It would be nice to know
Biodesix which is Oncimmune's USA distributor of EarlyCDT Lung raised $40m equity + $50m debt totalling $90m to drive commercial sales of their core lung-diagnostic business which mainly consists of Oncimmune's EarlyCDT Lung rights. This hopefully will drive sales and bring more royalty payments to Oncimmune.
I am hoping Adam Hill and his team can deliver some positive news to drive up the share price so we can raise some capital to further invest in the business. IMO , DYOR
It would be very meaningful if Chairman decides to have skin in the game. He's LOADED. At current market cap, he could probably afford to buy out the company by himself, not saying he would but just to mention his compensation at Syneos as CEO was around £6-8mil per year. A serious several £million investment in ONC would definitely align interests and bring excitement for all shareholders. I hope he is not passive in taking this company to the next growth stages. A small company like Oncimmune requires his help to wisdom, expertise and most importantly action.
I think there could be a wave of information and unmet need in this space….
US survey just out well covered in US press, example posted…
BUSINESSLong Covid may be ‘the next public health disaster’ — with a $3.7 trillion economic impact rivaling the Great Recession…
https://bigindynews.com/business/long-covid-may-be-the-next-public-health-disaster-with-a-3-7-trillion-economic-impact-rivaling-the-great-recession/
Remember this from ONC…
https://www.oncimmune.com/contract-signed-with-verily-life-sciences-an-alphabet-company-to-profile-autoantibodies-for-long-covid-19/
There was also a follow on contract in the sars-cov-2 profiling space.
I remember how testers moved during the pandemic. I see no reason why given ONC’s vast autoantibody database that there shouldn’t have been a pull in its immunoINSIGHTS technology.
The beauty of ONC is that they do the testing with their proprietary database that is probably the biggest globally for pharma and charge them per test. Like selling shovels during the gold rush!
I am hoping we have made good progress on long covid profiling. This is now being pretty much picked up in the private sector and as from the news article it’s impact is starting to be costed it will be interesting to hear of ONC have been able to commercialise any of the technology as it’s been quiet since the RNS’s.
Will be good if we get an update on this and much more in December.
Usual caveats
Trek
Averaging back in here over last few sessions, not as much as before though! I think the bottom is in. 2nd half numbers should be good and if calendar repeats we should get an update in December.
Also if they needed cash which I very much doubt they’d have raised by now. I think the revs are covering costs and the only way should be back up!
Usual caveats
Trek
Interesting to see Oncimmune's US distribution partner Biodesix raised $35 of equity last Friday. In addition, they secured $50m of debt from Perceptive Advisers, an asset management business with $9.5bn of assets under management. 90% of Biodesix's revenue comes from its lung offering, which is made up of Oncimmune's Early CDT product and 4 other Medicare approved lung product. Biodesix stated this raise was to "reduce near term cash use and enable the continued growth trajectory of the core lung diagnostic business". The go to say, “This financing provides Biodesix with significant flexibility and strengthens our balance sheet thereby positioning us to continue building on the growth momentum we have seen the past few quarters."
The last set of figures from Oncimmune stated that Q1 and Q2 this year will produce nearly £5m of revenue from both the diagnostics and services businesses. This compared to less than £4m in the whole of the previous year. The business is clearly at an inflection point and there is a total disconnect between the progress in the business and the share price. Biodesix shares went up 40% on the back of the refinancing. Oncimmune's cost base currently stands at c£6m per year, so if they can do £5m of revenue in H1, there is every chance this business will swing to profit in H2. Let's not forget this is an 80% margin business, so any incremental revenue over breakeven, effectively is all profit.
For Biodesix to raise $85m of capital to turbo charge their lung offering is clearly excellent news for Oncimmune. The Medicare approval for the Diagnostic test in the US was clearly a game changer, both in terms of the value they can sell it for (+10x) and for the long-term value of the business IP. Exciting times ahead.
An interesting company BUT the prior results tell the story reflected in the share price. Not much cash in the bank and a lot of debt. IMO, if don't get a fund raise soon, they are heading to big trouble. Not easy to raise capital in these economic environments. Hope they are able to raise without a significant discount. IMO, DYOR.
-Revenue £3.86M
-Loss £9.90M
-Share-based payments £1.80M
-Cash £2.53M
-net debt £8.16M
That was a throw away comment. I think that there is a majority Corporate shareholding in ONC. Central Banks still raising interest rates at dramatic pace. Markets and what the near future holds in store is quite fuzzy at the moment. Could mean that Biotech funding is staying dry for longer....I think that some moneys are being re-allocated to investments that actually have better chances of returns. ONc will be slow burner for a while longer. They need to prove in the next earnings report that they are converting deals and generating material revenues. The last earnings hurt.....the Company has to demonstrate that they are worth a PE of 10x in these tough market conditions. Market cap at around 35mio.....onc has to deliver higher revenue, demonstrate rich pipeline with solid growth forecast and importantly reduce spending and operating costs....
It'll realistically be this time next year when we are back at 2gbp.imho
Time to triple down
saaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaad
All, in case not seen there is an interview on V O X under the Video section done by Paul Hill with Adam and Alistair. Worth a watch for any investors left here!
Interestingly Paul kept saying ‘we’ like he was invested here but he has not declared that previously.
I think if we are patient things can turn around.
@itsyou - best of luck to you on your journey. I am yet to wait on the lifechanging money moment. Currently paying the bills working for the big man and trying my luck in markets, but right now trying to avoid Savings Leakage through gaping holes like Open Orphan, Destiny Pharma or Oncimmune. Not long and i will call the roof over my head y own....one day.
@grumpyfarmer - couldn't agree more with you. I am not worried about ONC as I always looked at this as long term, and given the market potential and ONC market leading tech/offerings (+profit margin associated with ImmunoINsights) this is one i just need to wait on a little. I am 100% aligned to your earlier post.
@Trek - I always enjoyed reading your posts here because they provided in depth information that I felt was tricky to source for a layman like myself. I purchased my original big batches just when ONC were conducting the ECLS studies hoping for a big boost once the results were published. The publishing didn't do anything as it was overshadowed by 8mio debt they took on to realise a 3 year structural growth plan. I think we saw the fruits of this effort when the SP hit its peak. I really think that Alistair and the executives (primarily in US) are yet to show their potential because to be honest it has only been 9months since they onboarded the wider team. If they are closing deals and signing MSAs with the top pharma's then at least some of the hardest part to realise revenue is done (for those target accounts). ON are building on this momentum. The increased debt we are seeing now is different to back then and is almost certainly linked to the increased spending to lay foundations which should support their international growth goals. I agree though that thisdebt needs to come down and i want to see and understand what the plan is to do so. Especially when you miss your guidance by some 25%.
Admittedly your posts did always shine an optimistic light on the technology and the companies strategy and execution (up until 2022) which may have helped me in my decision to continuously buy back in....but I dont regret buying more ONC and i did everything on my own accord.
Good luck on your journey too. you will be missed on the board here but if you decide to buy back in 2023 when the SP is 1.5GBP I will warmly welcome you back.
@KD37 - putting my mouth piece in and taking the gloves off now....
Trek
I did follow you here; wish I'd picked another you posted on ;-) I didn't understand the sector at all, although had some small scars from Alizyme many moons ago and swore never to re-invest. But I liked the fact that I might be doing some good by investing in a cancer diagnostic, that could actually save lives. I also don't want to be the richest guy in the graveyard!
Like yourself, I've had one real shocker, which wiped a lot of my savings. I didn't start properly investing in the stock market until I'd paid my mortgage off early, although did all the privatizations. Saving and borrowing at the same time never made any sense, unless you were the Bank. Did it before aged 30 and man it felt good, so KD37 you're doing the best thing as you own that roof over your head now! Nothing like having the Deeds delivered to your address. The losses educated me and ONC will now be added to the other one that is visible to me daily, so that I never forget what made me press the buy button each time, as after all it was my choice each time and each time probably had different reasons.
I've made life changing money in the markets on various stocks(was a lot easier in the long running Bull market), so my loss here is just giving a little back to the guy that may have been on the other side of my trades before. Only own stakes(non notifiable) in 2 companies now(one used to own the other), but majority is sitting in the bank earning a bit of interest at last, but is more than enough to last me out even with inflation.
Truly wish everyone the best of luck; won't post here again.
I’m not employed by the company, but am a reasonable shareholder. I rarely look at bulletin boards, but very occasionally, feel the need to post something. I do have relatively regular updates with the company and understand that small businesses always have an unpredictable path to profitability, with unforeseen bumps in the road.
The market at the moment is unforgiving and for some, this clearly will be too risky, however Alastair is only in his early 50’s, so it’s not a retirement Chairman’s role he has taken, he wants to build a business and unquestionably has the contacts to make a significant difference. Good businesses are almost always run by good people. He is proven and is a deal doer and has created huge value for his shareholders at Syneos over the 20 years he has been involved with that and related businesses. Syneos is big enough to be a FTSE 100 constituent, so the significance of his arrival at Oncimmune really cannot be down played.
The other part of the business I didn’t mention earlier, is the diagnostics business, which has also recently received a huge boost by receiving Medicare cover in the US. This means they are now able to sell the EarlyCDT, (or NodifyCDT as Biodesix their US distributor brands it) at 10x the previous price. Again, this is new news, but will make selling this product easier and more financially attractive for their US partners.
I do share many of your frustrations, especially with regards to the CFO and the poor communication to the market, but I still believe their tech and the market opportunity will make this a business worth hundreds of millions, if not a billion in the years to come!
Hi grumpyfarmer,
I guess you are employed by the company in some capacity based on your only two posts. The first being here on 5th Nov 2021, the sp was 174p and you then articulated your rationale for why ‘we would be a £1bn company’.
Look I don’t try to deramp or ramp. I may have my moments but I do call it as I see it. Around that time I also had an investment in ERGO a similar model and I flipped adding to my ONC based on my agreements with your and my prognosis.
Not sure about the 1bn but the guidance was awesome esp the immunoINSIGHTS margins at 80%!!
Anyways I, we were wrong.
This really needs the balance sheet sorting out!
Prove that the high growth ops/admin can be financed from revs without extending the extortionate leverage!
Let me see the contracts land in cash terms with some meaningful shareholder disclosure.
Look I do agree you guys have done a fantastic job but the admission of needing an Alister is overdue and your CFO has lost market credibility!
The guys you are posting to are part of that market. This is not a BB with hundreds of bla bla posts. It tends to be reasonably balanced investors and we feel let down according to your own guidance and missives!
Was it ‘haystacks’ the other infrequent ‘company’ poster here that was a scientist?
Anyways whatever,
Good luck with your investments
Usual caveats
Trek
Glad your out clearly bottled it. Don’t need flakey investors
Alistair ain’t put his name to this without dd
Move on pls to the next pump that you will bail at the low
Interesting reading the posts over the past few days and sorry to all those with I have sold at big losses, these really are very tough times. And in the face of a rapidly declining share price, it is extremely difficult to hold one’s nerve.
We all have to continually challenge ourselves why we are holding particular company shares and take action or not, accordingly. I have, however, decided to hold my ONC position despite the poor revenue number in the recent results for a number of reasons.
The primary reason for holding now is the recent arrival of Alastair Macdonald as Chairman. Having grown a pharma services business to $7bn in the US, he has decided to lead the Board of Oncimmune. A leader of this quality is not going to put his name to any old pharma business and so having decided to join ONC is a huge validation of their technology IMHO. The doors that Alastair will open in the coming months and years will undoubtedly propel ONC’s offering into it’s global pharma client base.
The second reason for holding is that the number of Master Service Agreement’s (MSA’s) signed in the previous 12 months has grown significantly. Whilst this hasn’t lead to much revenue in the period just reported, it bodes very well for the future. Global pharma don’t hand these things out if they are looking to do only one deal, this is a precursor to a long relationship with the expectation of many contract’s signed over a prolonged period, which will generate a huge amount of value for ONC over time.
Finally, (for this post at least) we need to remember the period just reported has been one of ramp up, both in terms of personnel and kit primarily in the ImmunoInsights business. Costs have therefore been higher than can normally be expected and any revenue higher than £6m should see this company approach cash flow break even (they stated Diagnostics biz will be EBITDA +ve this year given the recent restructuring). The operating margin for this business is over 80% meaning anything above £6m revenue drops straight to the bottom line. This in turn means that whilst the net debt number (that’s been restructured to extend the period for repaying capital) looks high, ONC very quickly become extremely profitable and the debt very manageable.
This is clearly not without risk, and the ramp up has taken longer than expected, but the tone of the statement, the confidence on the visibility of the revenue generation and the hiring of world class executives mean that at these levels, the shares look like they remain an exciting prospect for the brave!
KD,
I really don’t know what to say. I just hope that those numbers are relative as I appreciate everyone’s circumstances are different.
When I first started trading on smallcaps I put a sht load, for me, into a North Sea oil explorer called Xcite Enegy. XEL.
I fortunately had money to pay off my mortgage and invested our endowment (was a load of crp!) and savings. Having had a good run on another North Sea company that was taken over and whose name eludes me now plus the falklands buzz with RKH and DES and then BPC and RRL I made a decent return in my early trading days. I was invincible!
Well you can guess. Having followed the XEL story so closely from I think 80p to about 400p I started catching a falling knife. I absolutely trusted the BoD. I remember seeing Rupert Cole the CEO pouring out a glass of heavy oil to show how the Bentley oil field flowed….
Well to cut a long story short it nearly wiped me out! I mean I was fortunate enough to like you be able to pay off the mortgage but bar a back stop I didn’t have that much left. Over the next few of years I came into £30k and had another go.
This time I approached things so much more methodically. For sure I had losses but I backed winners and I did manage to to get a couple of multi baggers. Anyways I managed to turn what was a modest pot into many multiples over the following years. Amongst that I still get losses like ONC where even my poor trading skills were defeated!
But the point is when I sold XEL I grabbed hold of the sense of perspective. How lucky we are when half the world don’t know where their next meal is coming from to be able to dabble in shares. It sounds corny but it’s real and it stays with me to this day!
We are so fortunate! And having now had a run of luck following a lot of battle scars I never loose sight of that perspective and have been able to do many other good things that I thought were impossible when I sat in my kitchen watching the XEL sp collapse and not even being able to sell as NT!
I don’t intend to preach, nor do I mean to say have another go. I am sure I don’t need to tell you about perspective.
But I will say to you, rooster, and itsyou I sincerely hope that in no way have I coerced anyone into investing those sums or any sum here. I am just a blogger like the rest and really like to think my posts have been as a whole balanced including saying if I sold or traded.
It still doesn’t change what is a sht storm!
Even though I reservations were emerging I believed the guidance as well!
Another lesson learnt!
Good luck guys!
Usual caveats
Trek
End of an era really sold 151,000 shares this afternoon and will pay my mortgage off. Lost £600k in a year and half on these AIMS and I’m completely done. Can’t live like this any longer and been great listening to your thoughts the past few years trek and I’m relieved to be out and can re start my life again without watching these.
R00st 3R - good luck
Well for transparency I am out now as well.
Like itsyou I am pretty psd that they were nowhere near guidance. There was only one hint in the last TU about slowing down which I did post at the time but I didn’t expect it to be this short.
I have been fortunate as I took some off on the last run but am now down overall having reinvested.
I still rate the prospects here and the technology. It’s an amazing achievement what this little biotech has done. All the contracts it has landed, the databank and the lung trials. There are not many even +100m biotechs with such achievements that are actually on market.
All said at the end of the day the small cap space is brutal and many stocks are down 50-70% from recent highs and that’s not just biotechs! It’s often about buyers and sellers and not necessarily anything to do with value. But anyone in this space knows that.
Next year could indeed be transformational but imo they gotta have a plan to make these debt payments. They are growing fast and will need cash to bridge the ops costs until the revs picks up.
I remember asking the BoD about such and was told that ops would be covered from revenues. Now they have drawn down more debt and yet we were told they had cash for acquisitions! I mean they could do with sorting out the CFO imo.
I do still think it’s a takeover target for all these reasons and it’s a distressed asset. I may buy in again depending on how this and other plays go but I want to see an improved balance sheet here first. If a bid comes in in the meantime then so be it but I just can’t sit and watch it likely drip further in hope of a ‘white knight’.
For those locked in I think it will go back over 100p but not for a while yet.
Such a shame but hey ho. On to the next one!
Good luck with your investments
Usual caveats
Trek