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Jasper
Don't you think that OEX should be taking the reigns regarding promoting the company rather than using tweets from one if its shareholders.
Just a question?
The thing is Aiming, that I rarely post 'negative' comments. Refusing to get carried away and wanting to see hard evidence before cracking open the champagne has meant that I retired at 43. Granted I predicted a fall to .15 last evening but I was brassed off at yet another delay. Those who hype the share seem to take offence that others point out to them when they have got it wrong. Much easier to hold up your hands and move on.
I’ll take that as a positive :-)
Just retweeted PJasper1968 tweet stressing GCPB approval is imminent ...
Spot on Toptuf. I would have been delighted if it had rerated but just couldn't see any reason why it would. The rns was nothing but a delayed timetable for what we already knew. It had been obvious for weeks that the refrac wouldn't happen this quarter. It hopefully will rerate at some point. When that will be? No idea, and neither does anyone else. Gla.
Agree toptuf. If you say anything negative you get lambasted for it. Happened to me when I bailed at .258 and told them all I’d be back in at 0.19 / 0.2. They told me I’d missed the boat and to leave the chat lmao
Having read, re-read and re-read multiple times the RNS it gives us a lot of detail.
The positives:
* Legal GSPC completion - end March, confirms 100% outright ownership. No ambiguity.
* GPCB approval imminent. That could literally be anytime now.
* Production restart immediately. No grey area.
* Refrac prep continues. Behind the scenes planning continues.
* Tenders in for refrac equipment.
* New contracts for gas/condensate sales. This is huge news based upon where commodity prices are at.
* New wells refrac - suggesting 4-5mmscfd - robust economics.
* India huge demand for their own gas.
The negatives :
* Equipment shortage - out of company's control.
* Refrac delayed to July 22, not ideal but may come sooner if equipment is sourced earlier.
* Refrac time for results 30-60 days - longer than what has been suggested but explained why because well bore needs cleaning up.
* Initial refrac flow rates - lower than anticipated but still targeting 2mmscfd which is better than previous flow rates.
* New wells end of year/Qtr 1 23.
The uncertainties :
* Funding for future working capital - mitigated to a degree by cashflow from production.
* Funding for new wells - most likely to be via a JV
Now there appears to me to be more +ve than -ve in there, but what has been confirmed is more definitive time lines. Thats a further positive and again removes the ambiguity.
The market, whilst currently showing a marginal reduction in SP of 7%, does not know what to really make of this. And thats because the company have confirmed there is further positive news due imminently. Thats right those are the words they have used.
The company can only announce what they know and have covered off everything they needed to that is deemed price sensitive. I genuinely believe the next RNS will see SP appreciation and that we won't be stuck around these levels. The company is going through a transformational period, not without its frustrations and delays, but I for one believe they have made significant progress against a back drop of difficult policies and protocols in a country that doesn't move with speed and has its own internal affair problems.
Early this morning Gordon was being castigated for not being happy with the sp re-rating. I said to wait until day's end before getting carried away. Neither Gordon nor I will receive any sort of apology should we still be down at CoP because it never happens. Those who said this week was the week simply move on to saying that next week is the week without a hint of embarrassment.
You know I sold, pure nonsense.
Oilman
People on here making disparaging comments about the stock isn't thr reason why its down 7% today, its because the company failed(again) to follow through on its words as per its recent RNS. And yet again the RNS was poor and such as the stock has fallen just as it did last time, except today they won't be scrambling to put another one together for the last 30 minutes of business as they probably feel like they have done enough to get paid this month.
Farce
Doest say a lot does it hence zero impact on the SP. To many unknowns I’m afraid.
Being manipulated by those who know what's coming. News will drop in ~2 weeks time and if it meets the expectations of the man at the top, then the SP should rerate. MM's playing it tight for now, letting the appetite build, wait for the right signals and then it'll be a crush, Easy pay day for the players.
What is now needed is some PR work by Roland and team by way of an example look how long it is since there was an a article in energy voice one of the main trade papers to which all the funds specializing in oil and gas subscribe . With an extension to July for the frac there is now time for Roland to do some serious promotion work to the benefit of the shareholders and share price. I think the .28 share options now have a good chance of been triggered on the way to frac but the .476 options with a final date of 30th June 2022 may be difficult wonder what others think.
They to think its a stinker of an RNS.
Agree investor not long to wait but these days a week is deemed too long :)
investor110....great to see some more in-depth analysis. You may need to factor in that there are another 7 shut in wells that were previously drilled by OEX. Now not all of these may come back into production but if the refrac is successful I am sure they may focus on some of these as well. I think you figure of 2023 revenue c$20-28m is more than achievable.
Thanks Jasper13 for that analysis. Taking it a bit further and a bit more conservatively re revenues in 2022 and 2023
. say new flow rates, ex fracking, are a little less than you project so revenue pa of $5-7m. So for balance of year rev of $3.5-5m
. say refrac allows 3x flow rates so rev pa of $15-21m or $4-5m rev in 2022 once refrac is operational in Q4
. total rev in 2022 $7.5m-10m
. rev in 2023 from initial two wells $15-21m plus two new frac wells from Q2 - potentially with JV, say 50% share of revenue, or c.$5m-7m extra. Total revenue for 2023 c.$20-28m.
. rev in 2024, ex any further expansion, $22-31mm
. re further expansion of basin using fracking - this will surely happen as revenues flow.
So a few weeks to initial revenue then ever escalating revenue flows thereafter in a reasonable timeframe. IMO SP will rerate strongly from April onwards as revenues come in.
Think we’re going to see flow rates before July
When the taps get turned on
Gusher
lol
Choooo choooo warrenbe lol
Ha ha ha, total dog poo this stock, utter dog.
looking at the buy volumes the trains about to leave, mm's will bump the price up
10% profit sellers out of the way
I’m surprised this dropped like a lead balloon this morning.
nice late reported buys bodes well