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https://twitter.com/MerchantBanke18/status/1366308032402104321/photo/1
Credit to MerchantBanker twitter.
So where did all the tests go ? mmm
What's the Profit per test of these antibody tests, i have £2.50 in my head but that's not confirmed, is it?
This is just one distributor so I wouldn’t get too far ahead of myself. Nevertheless is nice to see demand confirmed, though never expected anything else.
The Finncap note states £1.60 per test (it says sales price, but not sure if that's unit selling price or profit).
If the Sales price is £1.60 (c.80p profit per test) - 200,000 per week = £128k wk/£66.56m PA.
If the Sales price is £2.50 (£1.70 gross profit per test) - 200,000 per week = £340k wk/£17.7m PA.
The remaining 1.8m tests split antigen/antibody we think will be more like £5 per test and a £2.50 per test profit. This equates to £4.5m wk / £234m PA.
Food Doctor and Aids lines also contribute positive margins (??? £2m)
New testing facility is up and running at Ely which again should prove profitable (??? £2m)
£17.7m + £234m + £2m + £2m = £255m (1 x multiplier valuation puts us at £1.41)
Even if we half that profit number £255m/2 = £127.5m and put a sensible 5 x multiplier valuation (but could be as high as 14x)...
£637.5m MKT CAP POTENTIAL
181m shares in issue
£3.52.
So imo, we are looking at a potential share price of £3.52 - £7.04 based on the above commercials.
Please feel free to pick holes in any of my calcs...
Cheers
Good Morning Greg,
Thanks for taking the time to share your forecast.
I think line 2 should be £6.656 not £66.56?
Wish us all a good week
ATB
Red
Apologies for the typo...quite right £6.65m.
All that 'demand' but not a single order announcement from ODX, and ODX has said they will announce all significant orders.
Either ODX is lying (hint they aren't), or the demand is being made up by those that want to convince others (hint it is).
Don’t forget profile share between UK RTC members..
Profit*