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Furthermore, if the takeover or US listing ever happens, the Ocado retail will be very profitable as the cost of investment on robotic arm is mitigated and/or capitalised into balance sheet resulting in less overheads on the retail side of business. This will definitely increase market share as goods become cheaper as we have already seen in the last two quarters. Other supermarkets may struggle to compete with Ocado as they continue to absorb higher costs of labour.
For the last 2-3 years grocers have had bumper profits from being able to use general inflation as cover for increasing prices.
So less need to address their operations to reduce costs. But these profits will need to be sustained as inflation comes down so I believe the CFC slowdown is likely to reverse in the next couple of years.
Sometimes circumstances mean a good solution is overlooked for a period of time. It doesn't mean the solution is not good. It could be that all the recent investment bears fruit over the next few years.
Absolutely! The tech is there and is proven to cut costs and increase efficiency. The effectiveness lies in scaling which can be done if the likes of Amazon or Kroger can acquire the AI robotic arm of Ocado or in full. We are not far I believe.
Lol, I can't see into the future yet. I'm not Mystic Meg but I have carried out extensive research on Ocado over a 10+ year period. Over the last 2 years major flaws within Ocado have grown. I positioned myself to profit from my research.
As always DYOR. That way everyone becomes more enlightened and less swayed by others.
Best to all.
Interesting piece on how ocado is using AI. Only a matter of time before it is snapped up by the likes of Amazon https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/business-68639533.amp
Sangi, no-one can see into the future. Anyone posting confidently that they can, is someone to be very wary of. Either they're in a certain place on the confidence scale that makes them 'alha' and there fore try to force others to their will, or it's plain manipulation. Ignore it, you cannot engage it more than you've tried.
For the moment, according to the chart, the downside prevails, but we're in an area of SP action where a switch might occur. The best we can do is watch, and try to make money.
You have outlined your position on Kroger. Elements of your thesis have been meant with an antithesis based on research but rather than engage with and counter the points made you prefer to shut down the conversation.
You keep saying Kroger are going to switch to Instacart and away from Ocado without explaining how Instacart are going to manage the large orders.
Instacart's own marketing is full of photos of a delivery driver handing over one bag of shopping as it is only used for small orders picked in store the same day.
Ive posted on this issue countless times before Sangijuelas1. No point rehashing everything again.
Best of luck. All will become clear in time.
It's not true that shorts only close at the end of the day.
Autostore news was released during the day and they were piling out then. There was also a spike of about 10p the very moment Ocado tweeted about opening the Auchan Poland operation, which suggests to me an automated spike on the news that was then overridden by a human as the news was not significant.
So what exactly does your research consist of other than a feeling or belief you have?
All there is to go on is a statement from Kroger saying they were pausing to improve efficiency and a further statement that closing the spokes would have no impact on the rest of the CFC and spoke network.
350 or below is now inevitable, bearing in mind we're ad 350.5. The question for me now is whether the bulls can take the reigns. I'll be watching as closely as I can. I'd say a close below 338 or 335 (even stronger signal) would suggest more downside is likely. Obviously I'm pleased to have closed all out. But personally, I think the analysts and the market are missing a trick. However, having said that, that is a big short position and the short view is held by a good number of institutions. It's probably best not ignored.
350p or lower, gap must closed but downtrend still intact. Suspect will test 335p and go lower.
Dark is a company that continue to sign contracts. Ocdo new contracts has subsided and debts £1.4 bln looming. No body will put any bid on this stock. Get out of this spike to £4. Last chance before shorters takes this to penny stocks. Just look at ASOS and Capita.
Shorters closes position on negotiated SP recorded only after hours. So prices is keep down for profit. This SP is getting cheaper since this company badly run.
That's your research. My research points to bearish signs re the Kroger relationship
Best of luck. We disagree, that's fine, it's a discussion board. Meanwhile in other news shorts profits increase as Ocado shares slip further.
Would be interested in any thoughts on GROW charts. That regularly seems saws up and down. Can be a traders dream.
Up over 5% today to 250 for no apparent reason. Was at 218 last week again for no apparent reason.
It looks like a US listing is very possible later this year. Could easily see this at around 475/500 by the end of the summer.
The AGM news will just be outrage at Steiner's bonus package if it gets voted through.
It looks like BlackRock were long here a couple of years back as they were complaining to them about the lack of diversity on the Ocado board.
They may be shorting them for insufficient wokeness
Have decided to top up again at 351p level for now...perhaps we could see a late afternoon rise in expectation of Monday's AGM. Possibly some positive news coming out of the AGM meeting and/or speculation about US listing or takeover. GLA
This has been explained to you several times. I have seen from multiple sources from the likes of Britain Ladd to workers at the actual sites getting closed down on Reddit and others.
Kroger thought they could enter sites like Miami where they have no store presence and take market share from the likes of Public without making any attempts to market the service properly.
The Reddit workers from other spokes compared performance at their sites with the others and order volumes were 3-4 times higher.
So most evidence seems to point to Kroger acting on unrealistic beliefs.
It looks like Ocado are actually putting someone in place with Kroger to work at using big data analysis to better retain and acquire customers. As per current Ocado job advert.
Kroger are locked in to Ocado's sticky solution. They can't use the likes of Instacart for much more than a packet of crisps and a bottle of pop.
Omnichannel service involves in store, small order delivery and then weekly shops through Ocado, although Ocado also provide them with in store fulfilment.
A key part of what Ocado are doing with Kroger is using the OSP to optimise delivery routes. As there is a lot more mileage involved due to suburban sprawl.
The CFCs will come. May just have to wait until the Kroger merger which will create an entity on a similar scale to Walmart.
Ocado could easily list on NYSE in the not too distant future. That would really increase the value considering the explosion of ai stocks.
That's the possible bull case re that scenario. Personally I believe a bearish case is more plausible. Elements of the below..
Kroger reassessing their tech plans re Ocado in the light of the failed spokes. That Kroger now plan on building out a smaller Ocado network. Planning to build out their contracted CFCs but little more. Kroger looking at utilising their other online delivery partners more.
Were the losses high because of capacity issues at Ocado Retail or because they threw further large amounts at R&D investment?
You didn't comment on my post yesterday about Kroger potentially pausing CFCs because of competition concerns about creating a grocery automation powerhouse once combined with Albertsons
Shorts are massing for obvious reasons. Lack of significant new contracts. 2 main CFC contracts pausing ordering new CFCs for the foreseeable. Meanwhile losses still high. Overcapacity at Ocado retail crimping profit etc.
As ever though DYOR...
Marshall Wace are hoping Mr Marshall can get his hands on the Telegraph.
That whole thing with Farage and Coutts was them using their GB News channel to short NatWest.
As for BlackRock they seemed to be short on Prism particularly before the private equity bid came in for them.
You have to wonder if shorts are sometimes working with buyers. Or it could just be that they are long Autostore and short here?
Meant to read 'just bets' as are ours.