Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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"Security trends to watch in 2024
... UK physical security budgets to rise
A recent World Security Report from G4S found violent criminals pose more threat to UK company security than any other European nation. In a survey of more than 1,700 Chief Security Officers, 42% reported potential violent threat, above the global and European figures of 33% and 30% respectively.
It means that 87% of UK CSOs expect the number of physical threats to increase in 2024. In response, 40% said security budgets will increase significantly over the next 12 months, with half saying that increasing physical security measures is their top priority for the year.
Physical security automation
Physical security automation is a trend that should not be overlooked in the pursuit of heightened efficiency and real-time response. Embracing automation streamlines routine security tasks, allowing organisations to focus on strategic threat management. From automated surveillance to responsive access control, these solutions are a key element of future security systems.
Automation in physical security means routine and repetitive tasks can be completed without human intervention. Security cameras equipped with intelligent algorithms can identify and track intruders, triggering automated responses such as alerting security personnel or even autonomously controlling access points. This not only improves response times but also reduces the risk of mistakes. ..."
https://newmarksecurity.com/insights/security-trends-to-watch-in-2024/
New on NWT's website, a very interesting and useful article outlining key physical security and access control trends in 2024.
An article which certainly helps to highlight NWT's cutting edge expertise in these areas, and the pressing demand for its products and services in them.
"Security trends to watch in 2024"
https://newmarksecurity.com/insights/
"Insights
Security trends to watch in 2024
In an era where security threats are becoming more sophisticated, the need for advanced and integrated security solutions has never been more critical. As we enter 2024, several key trends will shape the landscape of physical security and access control. This article explores these trends, and their potential impact.
Physical security
System integrations
In 2024, one of the standout security trends will be integrating security systems with broader business and site management solutions. Traditionally, security systems have operated in silos, posing challenges in real-time threat detection and response. Integrated security platforms offer a joined-up alternative, allowing businesses to efficiently unify security and business operations. Integration enables a more holistic and proactive approach to security, improving the speed and efficiency of threat detection and response.
For example, if a surveillance camera detects suspicious activity, the access control system can automatically restrict entry to that specific area. This level of coordination enhances the overall effectiveness of security measures, creating a unified response system, and is increasingly how organisations want to approach physical security.
Increased retail security
Figures from the British Retail Consortium show that violence and abuse aimed towards retail workers almost doubled in the 2021-22 financial year compared with before the pandemic. And over the last 12 months, shoplifting from UK stores has made headlines on numerous occasions, with worries that theft is going largely unpunished.
In the face of a significant surge in violence, abuse, and theft within the retail sector, the imperative to fortify against physical threats has never been more apparent. Physical security products emerge as the paramount line of defense, standing as formidable barriers to protect both individuals and valuable assets. Manual attack-resistant barriers, ballistic and blast-resistant security screens, doors, walling, and glazing play a pivotal role in creating a robust security infrastructure. ..."
https://newmarksecurity.com/insights/security-trends-to-watch-in-2024/
As regards how good some maintenance businesses can be as investments, Mears Group (MER) is a stellar example: a former fifty-bagger, low to high.
And MER in late 1999 was as low as 10p/share, before it c. 10-bagged, to c. 100p, in about a year and a half.
That relatively rapidly c. ten-bagging was a classic re-rating upwards situation, of the type that now looks to be underway at NWT.
And it shows how investor perception of a stock can change, as a company's business changes.
MER had been a lowly-rated cleaning stock, but a move into maintenance transformed it.
With the combination of soaring profits and a soaring rating turbo-charging its share price.
As with MER, increasing profits and an increased rating for the transformed NWT should go hand in hand, complementing and enhancing each other's impact to create a double positive whammy.
For example:-
• Doubling earnings & a doubled rating = a quadrupled s.p.
• Trebling earnings & a trebled rating = a 9-fold rise in s.p. (i.e. 1,000%).
• Quadrupling earnings & a quadrupled rating = a 16-fold rise in s.p.
NWT's shareholders base - most of which is long term - seems pretty sticky, so should require some quite aggressive bidding from buyers to wrestle away significant amounts of shares from them.
This should be an ongoing process over quite some time, underpinned by ongoing growth from the company.
NWT's annual revenue split last year (year ending 30th. April 2023), Grosvenor Technology (people & data management) / Safetell (physical security), was £15.574M. GT / £4.74M. Safetell: i.e. 23.33% Safetell.
And within Safetell's revenues, automatic doors represented a minority of its revenue.
So it's actually a relatively small part of NWT's group revenues, at the moment.
But just this one, minority area of business, for just one of NWT's subsidiaries (its smallest subsidiary), has multi-million pound profit potential.
26th Sep 2023 7:00 am RNS Final Results
" ... In the last year, we added a further 200 doors and now provide call-out support across over 2,000 doors, representing a substantial national footprint.
This market continues to be a strategic priority for Safetell, with autodoor servicing in the UK estimated at twice the size of Safetell's traditional markets. ..."
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/NWT/final-results-s32ymd0rnewx4w0.html
So the UK autodoor servicing market is estimated at twice the size of Safetell's traditional markets; and can also provide higher margins and more recurring revenues.
What could this translate into?
Well, Safetell reported over £15M. of turnover in its year ending 30.4.15; a year in which NWT made pre-tax profit of £2.252M. on turnover of £22.85M.
So pro rata, this could potentially translate into annual autodoors revenue to Safetell of £10s of millions, potentially yielding annual autodoors profit of a few £M.
Safetell's size, and the fact that it is 'system agnostic', should mean that it is far better equipped to handle national servicing contracts than the smaller players in this fragmented industry.
And with other providers having a poor reputation, Safetell could well be meeting a compelling gap in the market.
Indeed there's no reason why it can't become a 'go-to' provider for such national servicing contracts, if indeed it isn't already.
Automatic doors are also an intrinsically more sustainable option, for several reasons:-
"WHY AUTOMATIC SLIDING DOORS ARE GOOD FOR COMMERCIAL PROPERTIES?
One of the means through which us at Safetell help businesses achieve greater better on-site security and accessibility is through the installation of automatic sliding doors. ...
In this guide we’ll explore what automatic sliding doors are, and the benefits they can deliver for commercial properties. ...
A sustainable solution
Another key benefit of automatic sliding doors for commercial premises is their sustainability. Not only do automatic sliding doors open smoothly, but they also close automatically when they’re not required. Frequently, manual doors at commercial premises are left open by staff and visitors, allowing heat to escape the building. In the colder months this can result in a considerable heat loss from the premises.
Automatic sliding doors provide efficient insulation, remaining shut unless they are required. This should be reflected in lower building running costs. If your building has air conditioning installed it can also prevent fluctuations in the building temperature during the summer months.
Glazing options
Automatic sliding doors can be fitted with a range of glazes that deliver a variety of different benefits. Glazes can be installed that can reduce the impact of condensation, as well as frost on the glass. Other glazes are able to almost eliminate the effect of ultraviolet rays. Something as simple as the glazing you choose for your automatic sliding door can make a real difference to the comfort of your commercial premises as well as its running costs.
Open up your space
Sliding doors have the flexibility to create more of a flow between the space inside and outside your building. In the summer months, you may choose to fix your doors open, giving you easier access to any available outside space.
Enhance natural light
The large glass panes that are usually fitted in automatic sliding doors help to maximise the natural light that enters your premises. As well as making your premises more inviting, it can reduce the need for artificial lighting.
Compact operation
Automatic sliding doors don’t require space to swing into when they are opening. This means that overall they take up less space, making them suitable anywhere that space is limited.
If your commercial premises opens out onto a busy street, then sliding door designs are essential. If space is limited in your premises, the compact operation of automatic sliding doors makes them an ideal choice. ... This again enhances the overall attractiveness of your space ...
... We can also offer our automatic door servicing contracts where we implement our 'repair not replace' strategies, in order to save you money! ..."
https://insights.safetell.co.uk/why-automatic-sliding-doors-are-good-for-commercial-properties
NWT seems to be an absolute exemplar in its commitment to green best practice, and a top choice for investors seeking great investment returns while supporting net zero objectives.
Another example is NWT's 'repair-not-replace' ethos for autodoor servicing, which looks like a winning approach, for both customers and investors.
26th Sep 2023 7:00 am RNS Final Results
" ... Our record in repairing and upgrading customer doors rather than replacing them has continued to be an advantage. All of our service engineers have been security cleared to BS7858, the UK standard for vetting of people employed in the security sector, and this coupled with our 'Repair-not-replace' mentality, continues to strike a positive chord with our customers, particularly those with larger national estates. In the last year, we added a further 200 doors and now provide call-out support across over 2,000 doors, representing a substantial national footprint.
This market continues to be a strategic priority for Safetell, with autodoor servicing in the UK estimated at twice the size of Safetell's traditional markets. Our challenge in FY24 will be to gain a critical mass of contract volumes to support a more efficient scaling and deployment of our service team at competitive margins. ..."
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/NWT/final-results-s32ymd0rnewx4w0.html
And from the spring of 2023:-
"Insights
Safetell Commits to Carbon Reduction with Achilles Certification
Newmark Security is taking a leading role in reducing its carbon footprint, with its subsidiary business Safetell committing to the Achilles Carbon Certification Programme.
As the world becomes more interconnected, businesses are increasingly evaluated on their sustainability approach and Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR). Once something of a fringe consideration, they have become a primary focus for companies to remain competitive, attract and retain talent, drive innovation, and build brand loyalty.
Newmark Security knows how important it is to implement and maintain high standards of CSR and always looks at how we can be in constant improvement mode regarding sustainability. That runs throughout the whole business, right from the leadership of Newmark to our subsidiary businesses, Safetell and Grosvenor Technology. ...
Customer relationships
One of the primary benefits of carbon reduction for businesses is improved customer relationships. Customers are more aware than ever of the environmental impact of businesses, and want to work with companies taking steps to reduce their carbon footprint. By reducing carbon emissions, we are signposting our commitment to a cleaner environment and our status as a responsible partner and supplier.
In addition to improving customer relationships, reducing a business’s carbon footprint can also help to attract new businesses. Companies wanting to partner with new vendors often look for those who share their commitment to sustainability. By reducing their carbon footprint, we are not only demonstrating their commitment to the environment, but also our commitment to responsible decisions.
We’re also seeing a commitment to carbon reduction becoming a vital part of the tendering process. Private and public businesses understand how important reducing carbon footprints is, so we increasingly have to demonstrate our commitment to carbon reduction when bidding on new projects.
Saving money and energy
Carbon reduction is an important method for businesses to reduce their energy use and save money ..."
https://newmarksecurity.com/insights/safetell-commits-to-carbon-reduction-with-achilles-certification/
Sorry, my last post had the wrong hyperlink: here is the correct one:-
"What’s Next for Renewable Energy? Trend Predictions for 2024"
https://be-cis.com/renewable-energy-trend-predictions/
NWT has a very long-standing and strong commitment to sustainability:-
"How we are challenging ourselves to be even more sustainable…
Marie-Claire Dwek
CEO for Newmark Security
20 February 2020 1 min read
Thought leadership
Sustainability has been front of mind at GT Clocks for decades. We build products that last and platforms that can reduce a building’s energy consumption. But clearly, we are not doing enough. Although the effects of human-made climate change have been felt throughout the world for many years, the horrifying devastation seen in Australia seems to have made the world sit up and take stock.
Davos 2020 has already been and gone this year. Listening to the various speakers, while there are many advocates for change, progress needs to be faster. As we await sweeping reform from our governments we, as both business leaders and citizens, must look internally and improve where we can. We are responsible for our behavior and what we represent as organizations.
This is what GT Clocks have been doing:
For all products we carefully consider how power consumption can be minimized during the design, influencing the choice of components and architecture. Fundamental to the system architecture design of any product is the ability to monitor, diagnose and remedy issues remotely. This reduces and offer negates the need for unnecessary engineer site attendance and related carbon emissions. At GT Clocks we have a strong track record of maintaining compatibility with our legacy products so as software moves on there is no necessity to replace existing hardware.
With both staff and customers throughout the world, travel is an inevitable part of doing business. As well as choosing rail travel where possible, we have recently invested in improved online business communication tools further reducing fossil fuel consumption.
This is what GT Clocks are doing next:
We have recently launched an internal project to investigate energy efficiency at every level within our business. We are reviewing all vendors and analyzing the footprint of our entire supply chain. Finally, for now, we are researching an offsetting program connected to our industry and would welcome engagement from local organizations looking for support in this endeavor."
https://gtclocks.com/insights/thought-leadership/how-we-are-challenging-ourselves-to-be-even-more-sustainable/
Growing investor and consumer demand for environmentally beneficial products-services, like NWT's, have been highlighted as two renewable energy trends for 2024:-
"What’s Next for Renewable Energy? Trend Predictions for 2024
As we head into 2024, the renewable energy sector is positioned at a critical and exciting juncture ...
Renewable Energy Investment Trends
... 2. Expansion of Green Bonds and ESG Investments
The market for green bonds and Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) investments is anticipated to experience significant growth in 2024. This trend is indicative of a broader shift in the investment community towards sustainability and social responsibility. Investors are increasingly seeking opportunities that not only provide financial returns but also contribute positively to environmental and societal goals. This growing interest is likely to lead to more innovative financial products in the green bond and ESG sectors, offering diverse opportunities for investors to engage with and support sustainable initiatives worldwide. ...
Consumer Trends and Awareness
1. Growing Consumer Demand
In 2024, the rise in consumer awareness and demand for renewable energy will likely be more pronounced. Driven by heightened awareness of climate change impacts and a surge in sustainable living practices. This shift is leading to more informed purchasing decisions, where eco-friendly and renewable energy options are preferred. Social media and influencer campaigns are further amplifying this trend, spreading awareness and encouraging sustainable lifestyle choices. Consequently, consumer preferences will increasingly influence market dynamics, prompting companies to adopt greener practices and technologies, and urging governments to implement more supportive policies for renewable energy. ...
Conclusion
As we approach 2024, a landmark year for the renewable energy sector, we are witnessing emerging trends in the energy sector that are pivotal in shaping a more sustainable, energy-efficient, and environmentally conscious future. ... a crucial shift towards embracing renewable energy as a core component of global energy strategies. It reflects a collective realization of the urgent need to address climate change and resource sustainability, encouraging innovative solutions and fostering a deeper commitment to preserving our planet for future generations.
BECIS is a sustainable energy solutions provider, partnering with experienced providers of Energy as a Service (EaaS) solutions. We offer a range of services, including solar energy, bioenergy, cooling, waste heat recovery, and energy analytics. Our tailored solutions help companies achieve their renewable energy goals, contributing to a cleaner and resilient energy system. Contact us today to learn more about our services."
https://insights.safetell.co.uk/why-automatic-sliding-doors-are-good-for-commercial-properties
And Safetell's website has just put another four new articles on automatic doors at the top of its "Insights" section:-
"Insights
Keep up to date on our product news, business announcements and industry-related content on how to effectively and efficiently secure and maintain your organisation."
http://www.safetell.co.uk/insights/
"Automatic Door Not Opening
11 January, 2024
An automatic door not opening can be a particular headache limiting access to your building. Wear and tear, accidents, weather and the passage of time can all take their toll on your automatic doors. They may develop problems that interfere with their operation. ..."
http://www.safetell.co.uk/insights/automatic-door-not-opening/
"Commercial Door Repair Service
11 January, 2024
... Some of the operational issues to look out for include:
• Slow or inconsistent operation ...
• Noisy operation ...
• Safety Sensor Failures
• Worn or Damaged Component
• Control Panel Malfunction
• Faulty Wiring
• Physical Damage ..."
http://www.safetell.co.uk/insights/commercial-door-repair-service/
"What is BS EN 16005?
12 January, 2024
BS EN 16005 is a set of guidelines that have been developed to ensure the safe installation and operation of powered pedestrian and commercial doors. ...
Regular automatic door maintenance should be carried out to ensure that they operate safely and efficiently. BS EN 16005 must be complied with in full to ensure legal obligations are met and the safety of users is assured. ..."
http://www.safetell.co.uk/insights/what-is-bs-en-16005/
"Automatic Door Installation
12 January, 2024
Do you need an automatic door installation service? Call Safetell now to see how we can offer packages of exceptional value for money – something that gives us an edge over our competitors. ..."
http://www.safetell.co.uk/insights/automatic-door-installation/
Two of the three HCM stocks tipped in today's ADVFN article have been featured on this board previously:-
1. Paycor HCM (NASDAQ:PYCR) is a major North American partner of Grosvenor Technology:-
"Paycor & Grosvenor Technology: A Powerful Pair
... “ ... The Grosvenor Technology team is an amazing partner. The collaboration and communication as we worked on the development of our software was great. ...” ..."
https://www.grosvenortechnology.com/insights/paycor-grosvenor-technology-a-powerful-pair/
2. Paychex (NASDAQ:PAYX) speaks with Grosvenor Technology on a regular basis:-
From NWT's latest Investor Meet Company presentation video, 26th. September 2023, Questions & Answers segment:-
Q5: "Do you expect to add new HCM software partners in the US as customers in FY 2024? Is Paychex already a customer?"
A5 (NWT CEO Marie-Claire Dwek): "We're continuing to onboard customers. We've onboarded a couple of new customers this year, and that's part of our growth project. And we're speaking with Paychex on a regular basis."
https://www.investormeetcompany.com/
"Why It’s Great To Invest In Human Capital Management Solutions
... Lastly, the HCM solution industry does not face overcapacity, unlike many other industries. The number of providers is still limited, so demand elasticity is low. There are few substitutes, and competitors maintain product differentiation. Publicly traded companies enjoy much higher demand, propelled by their popularity and huge market presence.
All these three factors contribute to the sustained growth and expansion of HCM solution companies. As inflation decelerates, you can expect higher revenues with manageable costs and expenses. ...
Pecking Orders
As for pecking orders, these are our top stock picks in the HCM industry. ...
Concerning fundamentals, Paychex (PAYX) appears to be the optimal choice. It has a decent revenue growth of 5.9%. ...
Its operating leverage decreased from 50% to 48%, showing better management of variable costs. Indeed, the company keeps efficient asset management to cope with cost pressures.
Automatic Data Processing, or ADP, ranks second. This firm is one of the largest publicly traded HCM solutions companies.
Growth appears relatively limited lately, but it capitalizes on business expansion, matched with efficiency to generate more sales ...
Paycom (PAYC) is our third pick. It is the smallest company among the three, but its expansion in recent years helped it go head-to-head with much larger firms.
Its operating revenue is still quite lower than the other two, but the 27% YoY growth is remarkable. ...
As for sustainability, all three companies show very high liquidity levels. The low and negative Net Debt/EBITDA Ratio indicates adequate cash reserves and impeccable core earnings. These are enough to cover all its borrowings. These companies can cover all borrowings in less than a year.
Concerning their valuation, all stocks appear to be much cheaper than their five-year average. PAYC had the most notable decrease in PE Ratio for five years. However, PAYX remains the most affordable among the three. Its difference from ADP is still very low, though.
Lastly, if we analyze the stock price movements over the past decade, all three stocks had double-digit annual returns. They even exceeded the S&P (SPX) average, which their lower sensitivity to macroeconomic shocks can drive. ...
Bottomline
Human capital management, or HCM solutions, are becoming more popular today as the digital revolution peaks. Companies capitalize on them to enhance efficiency, reduce employee turnover, and generate more earnings.
So, it’s no wonder the HCM industry is expanding with sustained revenue growth ..."
https://uk.advfn.com/newspaper/advfnnews/72904/why-it-s-great-to-invest-in-human-capital-management-solutions
"Why It’s Great To Invest In Human Capital Management Solutions
By ADVFN NEWS
PUBLISHED: 15 Jan 2024 @ 09:43
The severity of the COVID-19 pandemic was unexpected, prompting government leaders to impose hard lockdowns globally. It limited business transactions and capacity, which led to massive losses and sudden shutdowns. It took quite some time for businesses to recover as restrictions eased.
Even so, it has regained its footing as many companies reopened and rehired employees.
On a lighter note, these unprecedented events opened many surprising business opportunities regardless of size. Many business owners realized their company could survive even if employees worked at home. This discovery led to the rise of remote work flexibility. And even if many businesses have already implemented return-to-office policies, hybrid work setup is now a popular trend.
Amid all these, human capital management (HCM) solutions have become a staple for most companies. Entrepreneurs heavily rely on HCM’s functionalities to enhance efficiency and precision.
Unsurprisingly, many SMEs, startups, and large corporations are investing in HCMs, and many investors are drawn to HCM stocks. As such, this article will explain why it’s cool to invest in HCM stocks and list down the best companies for dividends and value. ...
Why HCM Solutions Are Business Staples
The pandemic prompted many businesses to operate at a limited capacity. But it was also a pleasant surprise for many employees as it allowed them to work from home. However, it did come with particular challenges.
For instance, business owners had to ensure employee productivity despite lower monitoring capacity. And even employee monitoring software could not do everything at times. Payroll management and workflow optimization have also become challenges they had to address.
Even so, the gradual economic recovery and government support allowed the business sector to rebound. And even if restrictions have already eased, employers and employees still favor hybrid work. ...
Why Investors Must Consider HCM Solution Stocks
HCM solution stocks are attractive today, given the high preference for hybrid and remote work setups. HCM solution companies enjoy high demand as the digital revolution continues to peak.
These solutions are transforming the labor market. They are crucial for boosting employee retention and ensuring efficient payroll and workflow management in the era of hybrid work.
In addition, remote work is deeply tied to high travel demand. The pent-up demand in the industry remains high and is poised to fully recover in 2024. Winter and spring travel expectations are still rosy, even if the autumn hype has already ebbed. ..."
https://uk.advfn.com/newspaper/advfnnews/72904/why-it-s-great-to-invest-in-human-capital-management-solutions
Love it. £2m would be fantastic but I am less optimistic. Given the 2H 23 loss, and UKG, I am expecting a small profit for 1H24 but no more than £250k-£400k, I am expecting £800k to £1.2m in the 2H. I'd love to be proven wrong on the upside, more than £500k for 1H and we'll be on track for £2m. 1H revenue YoY will be cloudy because of UKG but that won't matter if the profit number comes in.
In 2 weeks we'll know for sure.
I believe that NWT pre-tax profit of up to c. £2M. for its current year could-should be possible, weighted more to H2.
Here are some useful indicators:-
From NWT's latest Investor Meet Company presentation video, 26th. September 2023, Questions & Answers segment:-
Q1: Can we expect the growth in ARR in HCM to continue to grow as a % of sales
A1: "Yes, definitely, that's the key part of our strategy is to get a higher proportion. Obviously we want to grow hardware revenues, but also those service revenues that have higher margins, and that's our key strategy. And as Marie Claire has said before, we're now selling those high margin services to most of our customers. So that IS driving growth."
Q4: When do you expect Safetell to break even?
A4: "We don't have forecasts out there, but anticipation in this year."
Q5: Do you expect to add new HCM software partners in the US as customers in FY 2024? Is Paychex already a customer?
A5: "We're continuing to onboard customers. We've onboarded a couple of new customers this year, and that's part of our growth project. And we're speaking with Paychex on a regular basis."
Q6: You are now nearly 5 months into FY24. How is the company doing compared to H1 FY23 especially wrt to UKG replacement ?
A6: "We've had a strong first five months of the year, and to the targets we've set - we're overachieving those, and we're very excited about this. And we're looking to replace the UKG contract. We're working with a number of software partners at the moment; and also not just with hardware sales, with our service sales as well, which has a greater margin. So we're in line to do that."
https://www.investormeetcompany.com/
From NWT's first 31.10.23 RNS:-
31st Oct 2023 7:00 am RNS AGM Statement
" ... "Last year was a period of significant progress across both businesses, culminating in the Group returning to full-year profitability. As we close the first half of the current financial year, I'm pleased to report that the momentum has continued. New clients and contracts have been won across both businesses ...
... Grosvenor has seen an excellent performance across its Human Capital Management business lines. This has included the onboarding of new clients and displacing its competition, growing its subscription numbers by c.13% ...
"The Board notes that due to the timing of new contracts and orders, it expects revenue for the current financial year to be predominantly weighted to the second half. Importantly, we have adequate financial resources in place to deliver on our plans. ..." ..."
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/NWT/agm-statement-hupzhufl06ll125.html
And some take-outs from myself:-
• If Safetell breaks even + in its current year, as indicated, this improvement should contribute a £685K.+ improvement to NWT's current year pre-tax profit.
• HCM ARR of up to c. £3M. in April 2024 seems achievable, at a very high margin.
I think we need a little news/update to push higher from here. So bring on the 25th Jan.
It has been a lovely run into the new year and there is a great deal of comfort to be gained due to the lack of selling through the 60's and 70's. Clearly the majority of investors believe that there is significant upside from here to hold onto what they have - me included (in fact I might have added a little more :))
It should be remembered that the 1H 23/24 results reflect a period including UKG, but also a period where price rises were pushed through to other customers. And the likely bottom of the Safetell business before the rebound in revenue.
Whatever 1H 23/24 shows, we also know that this will be the bottom, with the 2H already positioned by the management as the stronger period. We also know that with our contracts and reoccurring revenue, in markets set to grow significantly, that 1H 24/25 will be stronger again (YoY and HoH) so there is literally only good news to come. Revenues, profits should all climb, debts repaid, forward invoicing costs reduced, so regardless of any short term volatility, buyers will come in and the floor price will continue to rise.
My end of year range prediction whilst wide is somewhere between 150p -250p by December. We achieved share price growth of 150% last year against what on the surface wasn't specular top level numbers (although if you know the background with UKG you know the underlying performance was strong).
So good luck all in 2024 with your investments. This one we know should be fun!
NWT's striking rise is attracting new attention to the stock, including from this American defence-aerospace news portal:-
"Newmark Security (LON:NWT) Reaches New 1-Year High at $82.00
Posted by Defense World Staff on Jan 7th, 2024
Newmark Security plc (LON:NWT – Get Free Report) shares reached a new 52-week high on Friday . The company traded as high as GBX 82 ($1.04) and last traded at GBX 80 ($1.02), with a volume of 7795 shares trading hands. The stock had previously closed at GBX 74.50 ($0.95). ..."
https://www.defenseworld.net/2024/01/07/newmark-security-lonnwt-reaches-new-1-year-high-at-82-00.html
Though they've got some of the info. wrong, e.g. reporting the s.p. as $82 rather than 82 pence. (Though perhaps one day ...!)
But is does draw attention to the fact that in dollar term, the NWT s.p. has now passed the one dollar level: at the current US$-£ exchange rate of US$1.27 to £1, 82p equates to US$1.04.
A sign that the new, transformed NWT is now starting to 'come of age' as a stock:-
"Typically, however, the term penny stocks refers to stocks that trade for less than $1 per share ..."
https://money.usnews.com/investing/term/penny-stocks
And I would expect a lot more press coverage of NWT this year, as well as some long overdue press tips of the stock.
Happy Twelfth Night to one & all, and enjoy both this, and the feast of Epiphany tomorrow - the Feast of The Wise Men.
And in fine keeping with this culmination of the Christmas festivities, the NWT s.p. has today made an almost Falstaffian leap into the 80s!
Closing for the weekend up a rather tasty 7.5p (10.1%), to 82p (79p - 85p).
Which is a new seven year closing high, surpassing the 80p (consolidation-adjusted) reached in February 2020, and is NWT's highest closing s.p. since September 2016.
Good Cheer!
D
23 December, 2023
"The valuation of this business has doubled on the back of a new strategy, but this is only a market cap rise from $4m to $8m. Yet revenues are at $25m and growing alongside profits that are set to escalate. The high margins on the US business started 5 years ago have seen revenues grow from $1m to $13m with profits around $3m. It is only the Safetell UK business being in decline throughout this period that has masked this fanastic growth opportunity. The UK business is growing again, this alongside the US business will deliver huge value in 24/25 and they are now roling out the US model worldwide. This small UK AIM listed business has a 10x bagging opportunity and this will become much clearer for wider investors in the next 18 months. You heard it here...."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/newmark-security-plcs-lon-nwt-054612507.html?guccounter=1
NWT's US business model has proven to be hugely effective and efficient, and is now being rolled out worldwide:-
From NWT's Investor Meet Company presentation video, 8th. February 2023:-
21:00: " ... our growing base of software vendors. This is the focus of our planned growth activity. By leveraging many clients through each partnership, this avoids the need to mobilise a large direct sales force, and this is how we intend to grow the business. ... By focussing on HCM, particularly in the US where almost all of top twenty largest software houses are based, we are creating an exciting roadmap for accelerated growth. ... we are strengthening and expanding our existing partnerships with software vendors. ..."
https://www.investormeetcompany.com/
dab808 Posts: 204 Price: 48.50 Strong Buy
AGM (part 1) 31 Oct 2023 15:09
" ... We discussed the US business in more detail than ever before. We have 9 FTE based in the US. They are doing an amazing job and across HCM we are now working with 40 software vendors. These US staff is supported from the UK, this provides a very cost efficient way of working. As reported in the RNS today subscriptions are up significantly. As the software vendors are doing much of the business development, and we support from the UK in the background, we do not need to add significantly to the head count as we grow. We have a very scalable and low overhead operating model with reoccurring revenues. Not only is this growing rapidly in the US but we now have the rest of the world (reported as up 35% from a low base to scale on) again without adding much overhead. Given our growing presence in the US, Marie-Claire is out in the US in a few weeks time and will present to some US investors our business and model - exciting stuff. ..."
https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.html?ShareTicker=NWT&share=Newmark-Security&page=4
dab808 Posts: 204 Price: 72.00 Strong Buy
RE: Real growth drivers 21 Dec 2023 12:11
" ... Will one of the biggest near term growth driver will come from the rollout of Primark stores in the US? 8 new stores this year and 60 by 2026, GT clocks etc should be added at each of these shops. There are 1,309 TJ Maxx stores in the United States as of December 05, 2023 ...
Just like when you explained the US model at the AGM -where we are super scalable and efficient. If the above is correct, it would be great if you could provide case studies (Primark or equivalent) at future investor updates. This will help that improve the understanding and make real for investors the opportunities, companies we support and how we will achieve the growth story. ..."
https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.html?ShareTicker=NWT&share=Newmark-Security&view=message
"The Year Ahead: Human Capital Management Industry’s Projected Outlook Remains Bright
... In partnership with companies like H&R Block (NYSE: HRB), Intuit (NASDAQ: INTU), Amazon’s (NASDAQ: AMZN) AWS, ZayZoon, Harbor Compliance, Lendio, and more, Asure has worked to deliver its SMB clients with a wide range of services across payroll & compliance, employee taxation, employee benefits & 401k, remote worker compliance & services, on-demand earned wage access, treasury compliance services, access to funding service providers and more.
During Asure’s recently-announced third-quarter financial results, the HCM provider reported a 34% y/y boost in revenues to $29.4 million. The company also beat its bottom-line estimates with an adjusted EBITDA of $6.2 million, which represented an improvement of $4.4 million in the third quarter of 2022. ..."
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/stocks/AMZN-Q/pressreleases/22999650/22999650/
The outlook for the HCM (human capital management) sector in America this year looks very bullish, and America is also the place to be for the best AI business growth.
So this 'Double-A' combination - America & AI - is a clearly very attractive one: and one to which NWT provides strong, profitable, and undervalued exposure.
Indeed Asure Software (NASDAQ: ASUR), which is singled out in the above article, is one of Grosvenor Technology's impressive range of software partners.
From NWT's Investor Meet Company presentation slides, 8th. February 2023:-
Slide 14:-
"Our customers are blue-chip organisations from across industry providing a solid UK base, with a growing presence through US software vendors.
... SOFTWARE VENDORS
protime
workforce software
Insperity HR that Makes a DifferenceTM
attendance ON DEMAND
MHR
ASSURE
UKG
access"
https://www.investormeetcompany.com/
"The Year Ahead: Human Capital Management Industry’s Projected Outlook Remains Bright
Spotlight Growth - Thu Dec 28, 2023
As 2023 winds down, many set aside time to reflect on the year that was, as well as the year ahead. The human capital management (HCM) industry continued to see elevated interest and importance from global businesses, as the labor and human resources (HR) landscape continued to trudge into a “new normal” in the post-pandemic climate. Whether ensuring proper payroll compliance for remote workers across various regions to attracting and retaining top-tier labor talent, HR teams have been juggling several issues throughout the year.
According to market research firms, those trends are likely to continue in 2024 and beyond. This bodes well for HCM service providers, who are projected to see their strong steady growth continue through the end of the decade. Let’s take a deeper dive into the HCM industry projections and one such company that stands to benefit from the continued demand for human capital solutions:
Research Firms: HCM Industry CAGR Estimated Between 7%-9% Starting In 2024
Several market research firms have already issued their HCM industry estimates for 2024 and beyond. While the specific estimates vary, the consensus continues to favor North America as the leading market for the HCM industry. However, the Asia Pacific market is expected to see high growth for HCM, as the region begins to adopt new technologies and policies. ...
Chief Human Resource Officers (CHROs) are stating their plans for 2024 to include continued development of employee experience, as well as investment in AI ...
Lastly, the survey points to an increased priority to utilize technologies, such as AI, to help automate more HR processes and functions. 61% of CHROs surveyed said they are investing in AI to streamline HR.
Taking a step back, the survey with CHROs across the United States appears to validate the growth estimate theses of the market research firms. Technological advancement for the goal of improving efficiencies and HR functions, combined with key employee retention are important factors for businesses heading into 2024.
Asure Software Stands To Benefit From These CHRO Priorities
Asure Software (NASDAQ: ASUR) is one such cloud-based human capital management service provider that stands to see continued benefits from overall growth in the industry. Throughout 2023, Asure has launched several new products and services specifically aimed at helping small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) cut costs by streamlining operations, as well as improving employee retention and recruitment. ..."
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/stocks/AMZN-Q/pressreleases/22999650/22999650/
"Stock Market Forecast 2024: A Soft Landing May Not Bring The Gains You Expect
SCOTT LEHTONEN 06:15 PM ET 12/29/2023
The stock market climbed the wall of worry to impressive gains in 2023. After that big run, the stock market forecast for 2024 hinges on a key question: Will the Federal Reserve achieve a soft landing for the U.S. economy? And in a related question, can stocks extend gains?
Wall Street is mostly convinced that the Fed will reach its goal of a soft landing for the U.S. economy. That means there will be slower economic growth, but no recession, leading to interest rate cuts in 2024.
In that environment, most analysts predict improved corporate earnings growth for S&P 500 companies. As for how the stocks will perform in the coming election year, 2024 forecasts for the S&P 500 vary widely, but the consensus seems to fall in the range of 8%-9% gains, a little under the index's historical average of about 10%. Among other trends, artificial intelligence is widely considered to remain a key investing theme in 2024. ...
Stock Market Forecast 2024: AI Stocks
... "We believe a theme in 2024 will be less about AI's 'creators' and more about AI's 'adopters' — across the spectrum of industries and sectors — as companies increasingly focus their capital spending on productivity-enhancing investments," Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist, and Kevin Gordon, senior investment strategist, wrote in Charles Schwab's 2024 outlook. ..."
HTTP://www.investors.com/news/stock-market-forecast-2024-a-soft-landing-may-not-bring-the-gains-you-expect/
So 2024 should also be more about AI 'adopters' rather than 'creators'; with NWT operating at the nexus between these two, and poised to profit handsomely from this in the months and years ahead:-
"The power of AI in workforce management: unlocking productivity and efficiency
... Grosvenor partners with a range of leading software channel partners who integrate their software – and all of the AI you’ll need – onto our devices. ..."
https://newmarksecurity.com/insights/the-power-of-ai-in-workforce-management-unlocking-productivity-and-efficiency/
https://www.grosvenortechnology.com/insights/the-power-of-ai-in-workforce-management-unlocking-productivity-and-efficiency/
"How Some Experts See The Future Of AI In 2024
Jennifer Kite-Powell Senior Contributor
I'm a senior tech contributor who writes about science and technology
Dec 29, 2023,06:45pm EST
... Sustainability
Kaitlyn Albertoli, CEO and co-founder of Buzz Solutions cites sustainability as a market for impact. ...
“There is a fundamental research challenge around energy use in the face of an energy crisis and climate change; it is estimated that 21% of the world’s overall energy usage by 2030 will be computing power alone, yet technologies in AI, cloud, and quantum are inherently power-hungry,” said John. ...
Security
Joseph Thacker, principal AI engineer and security researcher at AppOmni says AI security will be increasingly focused in 2024. ...
"There will be numerous startups, potentially hundreds, focused on AI security, and every major application will incorporate AI features, a shift that will inevitably introduce new vulnerabilities." ...
Commerce
Chris Anley, chief scientist at NCC Group, takes a different view and says commerce will be the most important AI trend for 2024. ...
"Organizations have struggled to keep up with the tricky balance of enabling staff to use these systems while keeping their sensitive information secure," said Anley. ...
"Businesses are seeing that there are real financial benefits to be gained – perhaps not the science fiction style capabilities predicted by some, but certainly practical, measurable improvements in productivity," said Anley. "Now that these benefits are becoming clearer - in financial terms - investment by companies in these systems will increase." ...
Enterprise
Varun Badhwar, CEO and co-founder of application security startup Endor Labs, predicts where AI will go from here. ...
Badhwar says businesses must prioritize the development of robust governance frameworks and visibility tools. "The focus should extend beyond the mere integration of AI solutions and encompass a holistic approach that addresses security, compliance, and ethical considerations," he said. ...
"In an era where data is a prized asset, and AI is a powerful catalyst for business growth, the responsibility lies with industry leaders, policymakers, and technology providers to collaboratively build a foundation for responsible AI adoption," adds Badhwar. ..."
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jenniferkitepowell/2023/12/29/how-some-experts-see-the-future-of-ai-in-2024/?sh=6309998e2534
So sustainability, security, commerce, and data protection should be key AI (artificial intelligence) drivers in 2024: all areas in which NWT is very strong.
Which further helps to help highlight what an excellent and overlooked AI play NWT is.
THAL holdings in Newmark SecurityToday 14:09
Will THAL's holding in NWT be a catalyst to drive the price higher in 2024?
I've just taken my stake in NWT to over 3%. The rally towards the end of the year and an overall return on NWT of nearly 150% in the year makes THAL potentially another stock to watch in 2024. The 10% holding in NWT reflects nearly 40% of THALs market cap. At the start of the year it represented just 20%. So not all the value of this rise has come through into THALs share price or other assets have performed less well.
I'm with the recent finals commentary in the NWT could well become an acquisition target in the next couple of years. I'd expect a sale price in the region of £40m as being realistic and this is 5/6x the current price. I am certainly of the belief that we're only just at the beginning of a strong rise in NWT as the US continues to out perform, that Safetell in now growing again and the rest of the world strategy accelerates. Another doubling/ trebling of the NWT share price is on the cards in 2024 and this should reflect well on THAL.
By 2025 we'll be in the offer territory for a take out at £40m or so.
I shall potentially be buying here in the new year once I have done some further research on the other investments.