Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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"Our research is intended for professionals and institutional investors and is focused on the analysis of companies on AIM."
"Newmark Security Plc
25 JAN 2024
Interims: Further progress against 2025 Growth Strategy"
https://www.allenbycapital.com/our-research/
Allenby Capital's Company Note on NWT includes an excellent section on Safetell's autodoors market opportunity:-
"In Entrance Control, management identified the servicing of automatic doors as a major growth opportunity, twice the size of Safetell’s traditional markets. It added automatic doors and entrance control (speed lanes, speed gates, security portals and automatic doors) to its product and services portfolio in FY22.
Organisations have invested heavily in automatic doors over the past few years driven by numerous factors (including security, accessibility and building efficiency) for multiple applications, including shops, airports, hospitals, restaurants, office and apartment buildings. The pandemic drove demand further as automatic doors offer hands-free access to public spaces and reduce the risk of viral transmission. But organisations need to ensure that the doors are well maintained, and any problems promptly resolved. There are also some regulatory drivers.
Building owners have been subject to increased regulations around the safety of automatic doors used by the public. For example, EN 16005, in place since 2013, states that power-operated doors must be installed with safety sensors and door operators and maintenance has to be carried out by approved technicians annually. Failure to do so leaves owners potentially liable should an incident occur because a faulty door. While EN 16005 was drawn up for the EU a number of other countries have adopted it in the Middle East and Asia and in the UK it is known as BS EN 16005.
The global automatic door market was worth an estimated $18.4bn in 2021 (Source: IMARC Group) and forecast to grow to $30.1bn in 2027, representing a CAGR of 8.3%. Meanwhile a separate report estimated that the European automatic door sensor market was worth $305m in 2019 and will grow to $428m in 2027 (Source: Research and Markets). ..."
https://wp-allenby-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2024/01/20240125-Newmark-Security-plc-NWT.L-Allenby-Capital-Interims.pdf?c4004=on
"How much does automatic door installation cost?
08 February, 2024
Call our team today if you want an automatic door installation cost quote, or service – we are the automatic door specialists!
If you’re looking to make your building more accessible, secure and energy efficient, then installing automatic doors can be a great choice. Whether looking to streamline access to your office or retail premises or ensure that your building has the highest levels of security, carefully designed and installed automatic doors can make all the difference.
When you’re budgeting for automatic doors the cost of installation is an important consideration alongside the cost of the doors themselves. Automatic door installation cost can vary considerably depending on several factors. What will influence the overall automatic door installation cost and what might you expect to pay?
What determines the cost of installing an automatic door?
Automatic door installation costs can vary significantly depending on a range of factors at your site. A full site survey will be conducted by an installer who will take these into account before providing you with a comprehensive estimate.
Some of the factors they will consider when putting together your estimate include:
• The Site ...
• Size of the Opening ...
• Type of Motor ...
• Door Materials ...
• Door Features ...
What are the costs for automatic door installation?
Automatic door installation costs can vary considerably, ranging from a few hundred pounds to several thousand. An experienced automatic door installer will be able to provide you with a comprehensive estimate for the complete installation, including the cost of doors and other components after completing a site visit.
Automatic door installation by Safetell
If you’re considering automatic door installation, then the team at Safetell can help. ...
With our trusted automatic door servicing, repairs and maintenance service, our customers can also ensure their new doors are working as efficiently as possible for longer.
Contact us to find out more about our competitive automatic door supply and installation service and to book a site visit."
https://www.safetell.co.uk/insights/how-much-does-automatic-door-installation-cost/
And Safetell's website has just put another two new articles on automatic doors at the top of its "Insights" section:-
"Insights
Keep up to date on our product news, business announcements and industry-related content on how to effectively and efficiently secure and maintain your organisation."
http://www.safetell.co.uk/insights/
"What are the different types of automatic doors?
08 February, 2024
What are the different types of automatic doors, what are their individual advantages and which automatic door might be right for your installation? At Safetell we are specialists in automatic door repairs, servicing, maintenance and installation.
If you’re considering installing automatic doors at your premises there are a number of factors you will need to consider. There are various types of automatic doors available, each of which may be more suitable for different settings and use cases. ...
• Automatic Swing Doors ...
• Automatic Sliding Doors ...
• Telescopic sliding doors ...
• Automatic Bi-fold Doors ...
• Automatic Revolving Doors ...
Which automatic door is right for me?
When considering the different types of automatic doors and what might be right for your premises there are several factors to consider.
Your location will be an important factor, with some automatic doors more appropriate for the space you have available. Cost is another key factor, with some automatic door systems being more cost-effective than others. The degree of accessibility required is also important to consider, along with the foot traffic that will be using the door.
A professional automatic door installation company will be able to advise you about what might be appropriate in your particular setting and how to get the most out of your budget.
Automatic door installation, service and maintenance by Safetell
As a leading UK supplier of bespoke security solutions for a wide range of organisations, Safetell provides a comprehensive design and installation service, that guarantees high-quality, efficient results in any situation.
Our comprehensive project management service can handle the entire process. With particular expertise in challenging site conditions and high-risk locations, we can ensure a safe and efficient installation that exceeds your expectations.
With our trusted automatic door servicing, repairs and maintenance service, our customers can avoid costly and inconvenient breakdowns.
We maintain a “repair not replace” policy, only replacing parts as a last resort when fixing them is no longer an option, saving you money. We’re system agnostic and provide advice on equipment regardless of the make or model.
You can be confident that your doors will be well-maintained and safe, and should a breakdown occur, we’ll be on hand to get them operating again in no time at all. ..."
https://www.safetell.co.uk/insights/what-are-the-different-types-of-automatic-doors/
"Paycor HCM (PYCR) Q2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
By Motley Fool Transcribing – Feb 7, 2024 at 8:30PM
... Adam Ante -- Chief Financial Officer
... As we look ahead, demand continues to be healthy for modern HCM solutions. ...
There's plenty of runway for sustainable growth as the vast majority of U.S. employees are still being paid by legacy systems. It's an essential capability for any business, and we're delivering compelling ROI for clients to switch. Adding to our opportunity is the continual expansion of our HCM suite, which has increased over 75% since fiscal 2019.
We are demonstrating margin expansion as we scale the business and believe there is significant opportunity to drive further leverage. We believe we are well-positioned to deliver strong revenue growth and improve profitability over the long term. ..."
https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2024/02/07/paycor-hcm-pycr-q2-2024-earnings-call-transcript/
It's exciting to think that GT is part of this HCM 'new Royal Family, & wild nobility':-
Adam & The Ants - "Kings of the Wild Frontier"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hEn_rEDzp0
And that NWT's stated mission is "to protect human capital": i.e. human beings:-
Adam & The Ants - "The Human Beings"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JipPo-tb5wg
So Paycor has just reported Q2 revenues of US$159.5 million, which equates to an annualised level of US$638M.
And it has a current market cap. of US$3.771 billion, at US$20.67/share: i.e. an annualised sales multiple valuation of c. 5.9, despite making significant losses.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PYCR?p=PYCR&.tsrc=fin-srch
In comparison, Grosvenor Technology has just reported first half revenue of £7.629 million, which equates to an annualised level of £15.258M.
Applying an annualised sales multiple valuation of c. 5.9 to this revenue, would give a GT valuation of c. £90 million.
This gives some indication of the hefty valuation that a Grosvenor Technology spin-out from NWT could potentially command in a US float.
And if GT delivers upon its growth prospects, then that could rise to hundreds of millions during this decade.
Note that NWT has previously spun-out one of its subsidiaries, in a double global first involving foreign markets.
So a Grosvenor Technology spin-out from NWT, in a US floatation, not only makes perfect sense, but would follow an established NWT modus operandi.
And a GT spin-out in America would likely be a key to an immediate and immense unlocking of its value.
GT has both the size and growth prospects to command a quite generous tech-style rating, in America, which tends to be far more generous in its ratings than UK standards.
It was indicated from NWT's first AGM of last year, in February, that this GT idea might be progressed n in 2023.
And Marie-Claire's recent NWT presentation to US investors, in New York in December, could well be an indicator that this idea is being seriously sounded out.
Paycor HCM (NASDAQ: PYCR) and Grosvenor Technology: two HCM leaders, combining together in a leading HCM partnership:-
"Paycor & Grosvenor Technology: A Powerful Pair
... “ ... The Grosvenor Technology team is an amazing partner. The collaboration and communication as we worked on the development of our software was great. ...” ..."
http://www.grosvenortechnology.com/insights/paycor-grosvenor-technology-a-powerful-pair/
For GT to be praised as an "amazing partner", by a multi billion pound cap. company like Paycor (PYCR), is a terrific testament to its quality, and bodes very well for its growth prospects.
GT's already sterling reputation is growing, as it becomes a 'go-to' provider for partners seeking the finest products, services, and security.
Equally, the strong performance and healthy demand being reported by PYCR clearly bode well for GT's ongoing expansion in the North American market, where GT earns the majority of its revenues.
With Paycor's sales growing like gangbusters, its important hardware partner GT should see its own sales continuing to arise in tandem.
And the overall strength and growth prospects of the HCM market in North America point to continuing GT success with its other current partners too, as well as new partners.
Note also NWT's growing 'go-to' status for BOTH its subsidiaries, i.e. both GT and Safetell:-
23rd Jan 2023 7:00 am RNS Final Results
" ... In an increasingly risk-aware enterprise environment, we have been working hard to broaden our reach and reputation as a trusted security partner, becoming a go-to brand for customers who are seeking this control to simplify the growing complexity of security and compliance requirements in the intersection between physical and digital worlds. ..."
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/NWT/final-results-fjybevmguogyzsg.html
Defense World has today again featured NWT, highlighting the stock's recent passing above its 200-day moving average:-
"Newmark Security (LON:NWT) Stock Passes Above Two Hundred Day Moving Average of $59.73
Posted by Defense World Staff on Feb 8th, 2024
Newmark Security logoNewmark Security plc (LON:NWT – Get Free Report) crossed above its 200-day moving average during trading on Wednesday . The stock has a 200-day moving average of GBX 59.73 ($0.75) and traded as high as GBX 77 ($0.97). Newmark Security shares last traded at GBX 74.50 ($0.93), with a volume of 130 shares traded ..."
https://www.defenseworld.net/2024/02/08/newmark-security-lonnwt-stock-passes-above-two-hundred-day-moving-average-of-59-73.html
Though as on 7th. January they've got some of the info. wrong, e.g. reporting the m.a. as $59.73 rather than 59.73 pence.
But it does draw attention to NWT's quite striking s.p. breakout, and how this is attracting increased attention to the stock.
"What Is the 200-Day Simple Moving Average and How to Find It
By J.B. MAVERICK Updated October 01, 2023
Reviewed by SAMANTHA SILBERSTEIN
Fact checked by KATRINA MUNICHIELLO
The 200-day simple moving average (SMA) is considered a key indicator by traders and market analysts for determining overall long-term market trends. It is calculated by plotting the average price over the past 200 days, along with the daily price chart and other moving averages. ..."
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/013015/why-200-simple-moving-average-sma-so-common-traders-and-analysts.asp
Sorry about the non-appearance of some of the PYCR presentation extracts I tried to post.
The 'less than' character seems to be the cause, so I won't try to copy it in again: but the line concerned is saying that PYCR has a market share of under 2%.
Some other extracts from Paycor's new investor presentation, for its just-reported Q2 2024:-
"Modern HCM platforms comprise a small portion of the market"
"Our Disruptive SaaS Platform is Differentiated"
"Massive, growing & still underserved market"
https://investors.paycor.com/static-files/0645214e-a8a5-4932-ae6a-a5689344f7d8
https://investors.paycor.com/news-and-events/events-and-presentations
Some extracts from Paycor's new investor presentation, for its just-reported Q2 2024:-
"$38B underserved market with strong growth potential"
"Subscription-based business model with 94% FY’23 recurring revenue"
"
"Paycor HCM (PYCR) Q2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
... Adam Ante -- Chief Financial Officer
... We ended the quarter with $62 million of cash and no debt.
As we look ahead, demand continues to be healthy for modern HCM solutions. ...
There's plenty of runway for sustainable growth as the vast majority of U.S. employees are still being paid by legacy systems. It's an essential capability for any business, and we're delivering compelling ROI for clients to switch. Adding to our opportunity is the continual expansion of our HCM suite, which has increased over 75% since fiscal 2019.
We are demonstrating margin expansion as we scale the business and believe there is significant opportunity to drive further leverage. We believe we are well-positioned to deliver strong revenue growth and improve profitability over the long term. ..."
https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2024/02/07/paycor-hcm-pycr-q2-2024-earnings-call-transcript/
From Paycor's earnings call yesterday.
Its market is still in its early stages of growth, its offering is compelling, and its margins are expanding: all of which support a strongly confident outlook, especially when combined with the company's high level of recurring revenue:-
"Paycor HCM (PYCR) Q2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
By Motley Fool Transcribing – Feb 7, 2024 at 8:30PM
Rachel White -- Vice President, Investor Relations
Good afternoon, and welcome to Paycor's earnings call for the second quarter of fiscal year 2024, which ended on December 31. On the call with me today are Raul Villar, Jr., Paycor's chief executive officer; and Adam Ante, Paycor's chief financial officer. ... With that, I'll turn the call over to Raul.
Raul Villar -- Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Rachel, and thank you all for joining us to discuss Paycor's fiscal second-quarter results. We had another strong quarter with revenue growth of 20% year over year. Margins expanded 130 basis points over the prior year, while we continue to invest in sales expansion and in our innovative HTM suite. HCM demand is healthy.
Our deal pipeline is up significantly year over year, and our win rates remain strong. We continue to excel upmarket, especially among the higher end of SMB and enterprise customers with thousands of employees who tend to purchase a more holistic solution and are driving higher attach rates and higher average deal sizes. Our results demonstrate our consistent execution against our two primary growth drivers: increasing the number of employees on our platform and expanding the amount we charge per employee per month or PEPM. ...
We remain on track to grow our direct sales force approximately 20% this fiscal year to strategically increase our sales coverage in the largest U.S. metropolitan areas. As we expand our sales coverage, we are also increasing our broker coverage. We increased the number of active referring brokers by over 25% from the prior year, and 50% of our field bookings in the quarter were broker-influenced.
... This month, we introduced two powerful data-driven analytical tools that empower frontline leaders to unlock the potential of their people and business performance. ...
... Paycor recently received five branded hall technology awards which on our HR technology trailblazers. While we were acknowledged across our HCM suite, the core leadership framework that we launched a year ago won gold for the best advance in online coaching tools. ...
... We continue to strategically incorporate AI to add value to customers within our HCM suite, elevate our customer experience, and improve our efficiency and our customer experience organization. ..."
https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2024/02/07/paycor-hcm-pycr-q2-2024-earnings-call-transcript/
Paycor's excellent Q2 results surpassed estimates by quite some margin, which is great news for NWT:-
"Paycor HCM, Inc. (PYCR) Q2 Earnings and Revenues Surpass Estimates
Zacks Equity Research
Wed, February 7, 2024 at 10:45 PM GMT
Paycor HCM, Inc. (PYCR) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.11 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.09 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.08 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.
This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 22.22%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this company would post earnings of $0.04 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.07, delivering a surprise of 75%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times.
Paycor HCM, Inc. , which belongs to the Zacks Internet - Software industry, posted revenues of $159.54 million for the quarter ended December 2023, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.61%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $132.86 million. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates four times over the last four quarters.
The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.
Paycor HCM, Inc. Shares have lost about 7.4% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 3.9%.
What's Next for Paycor HCM, Inc.
While Paycor HCM, Inc. Has underperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?
There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.
Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions. ..."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/paycor-hcm-inc-pycr-q2-224507743.html
"Paycor Announces Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2024 Financial Results
... Second Quarter and Recent Business Highlights
• Introduced Pay Benchmarking, providing market salary insights to enable competitive compensation strategies. More real-time data gives leaders greater confidence employees are paid fairly to drive retention and offers are extended at competitive rates.
• Launched Labor Forecasting, empowering leaders to right-size their labor costs to their operations by leveraging historical data and demand data forecasts, such as revenue, sales volume or customer foot traffic, to maximize ROI and service quality.
• Gained momentum with our Embedded HCM Solution, demonstrated by robust sales among existing partners and a growing pipeline of interested partners.
Business Outlook
Based on information as of today, February 7, 2024, Paycor is issuing the following financial guidance:
Third Quarter Ending March 31, 2024:
• Total revenues in the range of $185 - $187 million.
• Adjusted operating income* in the range of $45 - $46 million.
Fiscal Year Ending June 30, 2024:
• Total revenues in the range of $650 - $656 million.
• Adjusted operating income* in the range of $104 - $108 million.
*We are unable to reconcile forward-looking adjusted operating income to forward-looking loss from operations, the most closely comparable GAAP financial measure, because the information needed to provide a complete reconciliation is unavailable at this time without unreasonable effort.
Conference Call Information
Paycor will host a conference call today, February 7, 2024, at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time to discuss its financial results and guidance. To access this call, dial 1-877-407-4018 (domestic) or 1-201-689-8471 (international). The access code is 13741610. A live webcast and replay of the event will be available on the Paycor Investor Relations website at investors.paycor.com.
About Paycor
Paycor’s human capital management (HCM) platform modernizes every aspect of people management, from recruiting, onboarding, and payroll to career development and retention, but what really sets us apart is our focus on leaders. For more than 30 years, we’ve been listening to and partnering with leaders, so we know what they need: a unified HR platform, easy integration with third party apps, powerful analytics, talent development tools, and configurable technology that supports specific industry needs. That’s why more than 30,000 customers trust Paycor to help them solve problems and achieve their goals. ..."
https://investors.paycor.com/news-releases/news-release-details/paycor-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2024-financial
Paycor HCM (NASDAQ: PYCR), a major North American partner of Grosvenor Technology, has just announced its second quarter results today, after close of the US markets.
And they should further buoy the confidence of NWT shareholders:-
"Paycor Announces Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2024 Financial Results
February 07, 2024 16:15 ET
• Q2 Total revenues of $159.5 million, an increase of 20% year-over-year, while expanding margins
• Q2 Recurring revenue of $147.2 million, an increase of 18% year-over-year
• Raised FY’24 revenue guidance to $650 - $656 million, an increase of 19% year-over-year at the top end of the range
CINCINNATI, Feb. 07, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Paycor HCM, Inc. (Nasdaq: PYCR) (“Paycor”), a leading provider of human capital management (“HCM”) software, today announced financial results for the second quarter fiscal year 2024, which ended December 31, 2023.
“Paycor’s strong 20% year-over-year revenue growth is the latest demonstration of our success expanding employees and PEPM on our platform,” said Raul Villar, Jr., Chief Executive Officer of Paycor. “Quarterly recurring revenue growth accelerated 2% sequentially driven by continued success up-market and strong year-end form filings while our Embedded HCM Solution gained momentum.”
“We are proud of the operational performance across the business, which delivered margin improvement of 130 basis points year-over-year while we continued to invest in powerful analytics that empower frontline leaders. We remain optimistic about the HCM demand environment and opportunity to deliver strong revenue growth and improved profitability over the longer-term.”
Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2024 Financial Highlights
• Total revenues were $159.5 million, compared to $132.9 million for the second quarter of fiscal year 2023.
• Operating loss was $26.2 million, compared to $31.6 million for the second quarter of fiscal year 2023.
• Adjusted operating income* was $23.3 million, compared to $17.6 million for the second quarter of fiscal year 2023.
• Net loss was $26.2 million, compared to $27.5 million for the second quarter of fiscal year 2023.
• Adjusted net income* was $18.7 million, compared to $13.6 million for the second quarter of fiscal year 2023.
*Adjusted operating income and adjusted net income are non-GAAP financial measures. Please see the discussion below under the heading "Non-GAAP Financial Measures" and the reconciliations at the end of this press release for information concerning these and other non-GAAP financial measures. ..."
https://investors.paycor.com/news-releases/news-release-details/paycor-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2024-financial
"Retail Crime in the UK – and How To Address It
01 February, 2024
Shop theft has reached record highs in the retail sector, with nearly half of retailers claiming that theft has increased dramatically in the past year. According to reports, organised crime syndicates target retailers, shoplifting or stealing high-value goods to resell elsewhere. This harrowing trend puts staff and customers at risk.
In 2023, Tesco announced that they would roll out hundreds of safety screens in Express stores and petrol station kiosks across the UK as a response to increasing incidents of crime against retailers, particularly a concerning increase in assaults against staff. These screens enclose the side of the till where staff are most vulnerable and stand above head height, protecting staff against assault. Designed to prevent the theft of high-value items, such as alcohol, beauty products, cigarettes, and other items often kept behind counters, it’s become a valuable deterrent against crime. ...
Cost-effective solutions like Safetell’s SafeShield UL Security Glazing safeguard staff and counter areas against physical attacks and attempts to vault over the counterwork to snatch high-value items kept behind the counter. This solution is specifically tailored for operations involving the secure transaction of goods or objects, like express retail environments or petrol forecourts. ..."
https://www.safetell.co.uk/insights/retail-crime-in-the-uk-and-how-to-address-it/
"Combatting Criminal Activity in Petrol Stations
01 February, 2024
There is an alarming increase in theft and crime in the retail sector. According to the ACS Voice of Local Shops survey, nearly two-thirds of retailers have experienced theft in their stores. More than a third say theft has increased. While all retailers are at risk, petrol forecourts are especially vulnerable.
Operating at late hours, often handling large amounts of cash, and a lack of staffing and security means that these retailers are prime targets for both opportunistic and organised criminals. ...
The best defence against these crimes is to install safety screens. Tesco and other stores have already committed to the installation of safety screens in more than 250 Express locations and petrol forecourts in a bid to improve the safety and well-being of their employees. ...
Safetell facilitates seamless operations without compromising safety with products that include the CashFast and Night Pay Hatch Drawers. ...
Safetell is Safety Pass Alliance (SPA) accredited, which means they are accredited to install products in forecourts across the UK. ..."
https://www.safetell.co.uk/insights/combating-criminal-activity-in-petrol-stations/
"Insights
Keep up to date on our product news, business announcements and industry-related content on how to effectively and efficiently secure and maintain your organisation."
https://www.safetell.co.uk/insights/
A final point about the debt I would make is that some debt can actually be a GOOD thing.
From Hargreaves Lansdown "Investment Times", Issue 150 - autumn 2021, page 28, re debt:-
"There's a school of thought that says debt is always bad for a company's balance sheet. I disagree. Debt in moderation has the potential to boost results and fund expansion that would otherwise require the issue of new shares.... the important thing is that companies invest in projects with a higher rate of return than the interest rate. ...Of course debt needs to be kept within sensible limits. Unfortunately, there's no iron rule for what classes as sensible - it depends on the exact details of the particular business ..."
Net cash stagnating on a company's balance sheet can be a sign of a 'go nowhere' company with its best days behind it, & no good business use for the cash.
And it can be similar with dividends: Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway vehicle (a 10,000-bagger) has NEVER paid a dividend.
Indeed of the more than 700 companies listed on AIM, only c. 200 are dividend-paying.
So I would prefer a company with very exciting growth opportunities, like NWT, which of course need money to exploit them.
How much do you think it costs to 'conquer America', with exciting technology, like NWT have done?: it's not cheap, but now it's payback time.
Dab808 Posts: 219 Price: 72.00 Strong Buy
Thoughts "we remain a strong buy!" (of course I would say that) 30 Jan 2024 11:36
" ... So to summarise, I believe there will be a profit between £0.7m and £1.5m for FY 2024! And for FY 2025 based on similar a similar approach a minimum of £1.5m to £3m. ..."
Dab,
Two particular points to note re this:-
1. NWT would have no tax to pay on this profit, because of prior tax losses (NWT should have c. £6M. in tax credits).
2. Pre-tax profit is stated AFTER debt repayments (capital & interest).
So by the end of its year ending 30.4.25, based on Dab's forecasts, NWT's net debt could potentially be history.
And that's even without any reduction in inventory, which has been held at heightened levels because of global supply chain challenges.
And once the debt is paid off, that alone should give an immediate further boost to profitability.
Note that NWT already has net assets greater than its market capitalisation, despite writing off £ millions of R&D investment to the profit-&-loss account as it occurs - rather than capitalising it like some less prudent technology companies.
And if you were to net off NWT's inventory against net debt, that could potentially neutralise the net debt by the end of NWT's current year ending 30.4.24.
The debt payments and interest are also very well covered, with plenty of leeway.
And the only debt with any covenant requirement is a Coronavirus Business Interruption Loan Scheme ("CBILS") loan, which are treated comparatively benignly.
The rest of the debt is invoice discounting, which is far less expensive than invoice factoring.
In invoice factoring, the customer pays the factor company directly. Whereas in invoice discounting, the customer doesn't pay the discounter company, but pays the same company as normal (i.e. NWT in this case).
Invoice discounting is typically used by larger companies than with invoice factoring, and with more creditworthy customers.
Also remember that NWT's last new placing of new shares was nearly 20 years ago - and even this was to help fund an acquisition.
Since then NWT has successfully navigated the credit crunch a decade and a half ago, and the COVID-19 global pandemic earlier in this decade, all without any real dilution.
So well done to them for that, and I think they have earnt a lot of investor respect and trust for this.
I caught up with Marie-Claire this evening on my email sent yesterday.
As always she needed to be cognisant of disclosures. We chatted through the interim results and performance over 1H 23 and 1H 24. Based on our discussions I see no reason to doubt the forecasts I have calculated although MC couldn't obviously comment. Interestingly she was keen to point out the higher margins on the new business verses UKG, which was one of the first deals they did on HCM. I took away from that discussion that there is more margin and profits to come through from a similar revenue position.
We discussed forecasts and how we position our growth. Again MC confirmed that profit forecasts are still something she is keen to avoid in the near term but with reoccurring revenues growing quickly there are areas where forecasts could potentially be made. She would consider what and when although didn't see this happening in the near term.
I explained my dividend comment and asked her to consider what we can say around when we might see the return of a dividend. I flagged that any comments in terms of the reinstatement of a dividend would be seen as positive as it would be stressing to the market that profits are growing. Again she was keen to stress we were profitable in Q2 and the momentum is strong as disclosed more profit in Q3 and Q4. I stressed the trading update to be issued in May/Jun should ram home this point. To state we are 'ahead' or 'significantly ahead' in profit terms for FY24 over 23 would be hugely positive. She took this onboard.
We discussed the announcements of dates. A FY results date is already pencilled in for September. This will be announced around a month in advance of the publication of the results.
I advised that I had continued to increase my stake. MC reminded me that she and other family members cannot buy more shares due to the limits in place as she is part of "Dwek Concert Party" (see RNS 01062020. I took this as she'd like to buy more shares but cannot. I had forgotten about this and thought WOW, none of our biggest shareholders can actually buy more without a takeover. No They are not sellers but cannot buy more, this is a potential reason we are undervalued. I flagged that it would be great to see Paul as CFO buying some as again this would flag positive vibes. Again she got the point I made.
Overall whilst MC could give me no new news this was a highly informative and useful call to share what as a shareholder I'd like to see the company doing better and for MC to remind me that what they have put into the market is very much in line with what we should expect.
I see no reason to doubt that we will make profits in Q2, Q3 and Q4 and that 2025 will be much better again. BUY BUY BUY.......
martyn's law generated business will be the *****essential non-discretionary business: legally required, and also of massive importance.
the risks to life and property being combated are just vast, especially with increased global conflict at the moment, now including new uk involvement - in helping to protect red sea shipping.
and the potential economic hit from a major terror attack scaring people away from public places could be many billions.
nwt clearly has very valuable products, services, and expertise to help combat these threats, with demand likely to outstrip supply.
and as the investment community wakes up to this new law and its implications (which includes increased costs for many businesses) i would expect to see nwt highlighted as a/the pre-eminent listed share beneficiary.
this is clearly a major business and investment opportunity, and i'm not aware of a better play on it than nwt.
"Martyn’s Law: Safeguarding public spaces with comprehensive security
... Access Control in focus
As an industry innovator, Grosvenor Technology welcomes Martyn’s Law as a progressive step to enhance security in public spaces. The legislation highlights the importance of access control in mitigating the impact of terrorist attacks. Grosvenor highlights two critical focus areas for building security systems: maintaining premium quality security and providing comprehensive access management.
Grosvenor’s product range significantly emphasises uncompromised security, empowering building managers to address potential vulnerabilities proactively. Issues like card cloning are highlighted as potential risks, prompting a call to consider upgrading legacy systems with robust encryption-driven hardware and software.
Comprehensive access control emerges as an essential element, encompassing features such as lockdown functionality, anti-passback systems, personnel tracking, safe corridors, secure access for emergency services, and seamless integration with other security systems.
The JanusC4 system aligns with Martyn’s Law requirements, providing a robust solution for evolving security needs. Ongoing development focuses on refining and improving products, ensuring the company stays ahead in meeting the demands of a changing security landscape.
Supporting the introduction of Martyn’s Law
Martyn’s Law is about more than just products; it’s about protecting people, developing comprehensive security plans, robust processes, and thorough staff training. The company pledges dedicated support to its customers, recognising the importance of collaborative efforts to implement the law successfully.
After the Manchester Arena tragedy, Martyn’s Law emerges as a crucial initiative to fortify public spaces against potential threats. Through its subsidiaries, Safetell and Grosvenor Technology, Newmark Security stands ready to help organisations upgrade their security."
https://newmarksecurity.com/insights/martyns-law-safeguarding-public-spaces-with-comprehensive-security/
"Martyn’s Law: Safeguarding public spaces with comprehensive security
... Enhancing physical security
Safetell recognises the profound impact Martyn’s Law could have on over 650,000 UK businesses. As detailed, the bill suggests varying levels of responsibility based on venue capacity, potentially requiring mandatory physical updates. To navigate these changes effectively, companies should review existing plans, promote awareness, and keep informed about when the legislation will be formally passed into law.
Entrance Control is a central component of Safetell’s approach, encompassing security portals, speed gates, full-height turnstiles, tripod turnstiles, swing gates, rotating doors, and security pass doors. These products address the specific requirements outlined in Martyn’s Law, offering a range of security resistance levels and customisation options to cater to diverse business needs.
Safetell encourages businesses to conduct thorough security assessments, aligning them with Martyn’s Law requirements. Assessments should focus on potential risks and vulnerabilities and implement preventive measures. Companies can proactively address security gaps and create robust action plans by completing a comprehensive evaluation.
Proactive risk mitigation
Martyn’s Law, in its current draft, emphasises the importance of risk assessments for different tiers of businesses. Safetell advises organisations to adopt proactive risk mitigation strategies, such as installing mandatory physical updates like bollards, intruder detection technology, tactical CCTV, and secure entrances. These measures enhance security and align with potential future legal requirements.
Martyn’s Law also underscores the significance of collaborating with local authorities and law enforcement to ensure a cohesive and coordinated approach to security. Sharing insights, conducting joint drills, and staying abreast of evolving threats can enhance preparedness and response capabilities. ..."
https://newmarksecurity.com/insights/martyns-law-safeguarding-public-spaces-with-comprehensive-security/
New on NWT's website: a new article on Martyn's Law (Protect Duty legislation); which is the first one on this topic on NWT's own website, following on from previous ones on Safetell's & GT's websites last year:-
"Martyn’s Law: Safeguarding public spaces with comprehensive security"
https://newmarksecurity.com/insights/
"Insights
Martyn’s Law: Safeguarding public spaces with comprehensive security
Almost seven years after the event, the impact of the 2017 Manchester Arena bombing still weighs heavily. The event has prompted the UK to undergo significant legislative changes to enhance national security, improve intelligence-sharing mechanisms, and bolster counter-terrorism measures. The most recent development is Martyn’s Law, which was confirmed as coming into law in the King’s Speech in November 2023.
Martyn’s Law, also referred to as The Terrorism (Protection of Premises) Bill, is a response to the tragic events of the Manchester Arena bombing, and represents a crucial step forward in ensuring the safety and security of publicly accessible locations. Advocated by Figen Murray, the mother of Martyn Hett, who tragically lost his life in the bombing, this legislation aims to strengthen security measures in public spaces across the UK.
The introduction of Martyn’s Law is a commitment to preventing similar incidents in the future and underscores the need for businesses and venues to implement robust security protocols. Once passed into law, it will compel businesses to develop action plans and assess potential terror attack risks.
Currently, the government is seeking public views via a consultation to ensure the bill strikes the right balance between public protection and avoiding undue burdens on smaller premises. As it stands, businesses with a capacity of more than 100 people (standard tier) will be required to implement measures such as training and evaluation.
Venues with a capacity of more than 800, or those with over 250 employees, will have increased responsibility, including risk assessments and more detailed security plans. The draft bill also proposes a strict inspection and enforcement regime, including sanctions for breaches.
In response to the confirmation of Martyn’s Law, Newmark Security, with its subsidiaries Safetell and Grosvenor Technology, is taking a proactive stance to improve public safety and protection against terrorism. Our commitment extends beyond mere compliance, emphasising a dedication to fortifying security measures and contributing to the overall preparedness of public spaces. ..."
http://newmarksecurity.com/insights/martyns-law-safeguarding-public-spaces-with-comprehensive-security/
You’ll also note the power of the market expecting the results. Previously RNS’s would be a surprise, the fact that we are now organised, with dates in the diary leads to speculation and potential buying. Please continue to ensure these dates are published.
So what for 2H, full year 24 and 2025? I have to say there is some clamour from investors to get some forecasts into the market. The Allenby Capital note was good but needed forecasts. I know you have previous stressed that these have been difficult for the company to provide but with re-occurring revenues and increasing certainty around contracts I personally think we are missing a trick. The 3 contract wins for example, simple statements of belief that these might add £3m+ to revenues adds significant weight to the message. I have done my own forecasts (below) that provide significant room for manoeuvrer around trading that will help guide investors on the trend and provide more confidence in the strategy. Again a simple message that we see 2024 FY ahead of 2023 would have gone down really well.
I know we need to tread a fine line in over promising but I genuinely believe we can publish a minimum or a range, or opt for simple statements like ahead. Views like these would have led to the price perhaps stabilising higher than where we are or even accelerating further. In the interests of all shareholders I think you need to be reconsidering the position on forecasts even if it is within ranges that you feel comfortable. That said, by my forecast we remain in bargain territory so I have upped my stake to 3.4% and I will continue to support the price on any further dips. We have an exciting 18 months ahead that will hopefully stretch into years and I am very much enjoying the ride.
Dear Marie-Claire,
I hope you and Paul are keeping well.
Thanks, and despite the small loss, congratulations on the most recent interim update! There were no real surprises for me other than perhaps the cash position, where I expected with inventories to fall over the period (which they did) creating a more neutral position in 1H 24 over 2H 23. This has also led to the debt position growing again which I’d like to see stabilise/reverse although this might need to be balanced with the payment of a small dividend at some point in the next 18 months. The company has generated £125m of revenues since 2016/17 (last dividend in 2015/16) of which shareholders have received nothing.
I thought you delivered an excellent update via the Proactive interview, you were very confident, both in the way you presented and the overall results and future outlook. The detail in both the interim release and Allenby Capital note has really helped in terms of understanding the impact of UKG and allowed some forecasting on where we might end FY 24 and 2025.
You’ll be aware that I and others had reached out via social media and through investment boards to broaden our message. This led to some excitement into these results and the share price accelerating to 90p the night before results. The pullback to 70p should not be seen as a negative, the results themselves suggest we were a little ahead of ourselves but the fact we moved from 30p in Q1 23, to 55p by Q3 23 and 70p into Q4 23 is a significant improvement in confidence in the strategy!
Indeed fft100. There are a number of ways we could have put it better, another way (if we were making £150k profit per month out of UKG) would be to have a view that with UKG we'd have expected a a profit in the region of £800k for 1H24, not a loss £100k. And thus if we'd had UKG profit for 1H 24 over 1H 23 would have shown a 60% YoY increase in profitability! That said there are rules and I am no expert on what we can and cannot disclose.
On Safetell, personally I'd run with doors and keep Safetell for a bit a least, the early turnaround signs look good and there was at least some capacity (in protection) that allowed growth without adding too much cost. Move forward and with economies of scale and re-occurring incomes, profits could come on the back of a successful strategy. The spinning out of GT into the US however might be a more sensible move (hedgehog and I shared views on this in the past and I also raised with Marie-Claire). We need to see the full value of the new contracts but if the US grows in 2H and the RoW strategy continues its growth then that business alone is worth $50m.
On your point around forecasts - I have sent the a note to Marie-Claire that I'll copy above.