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Intended for those here far more knowledgeable than me:- I note from today's RNS that, "local laboratory set-ups with remote cloud-based NIPT analysis" exist. This being the case and noting that the PLC's gravity of earnings has pulled significantly to the Mid/Far East, what is to stop the BOD from upping sticks, delisting here (whilst selling PIs down the river) and setting up in sunnier climes where the term "patent infringement" does not appear to exist? I was thinking somewhere not far from Thailand, so that our resident Twixalot could no longer excuse himself from AGMs! And where he could scrutinise and hold the BOD to account, whilst beating them relentlessly until they realised that their primary raison d'etre is to deliver long-term value to shareholders!
Whoa Tiger.... steady on you seem a bit impulsive :)
Hi all, I spent a whole �500.00 at 4.74 About 5% of my total spend. This will average me down from the VIA days! If the UK is stripped out of the business and there was no litigation liability then this is a good punt. The longer the delay in paying costs the better our chances of survival. This really does seem in the lap of the gods. I just hope that some of the big time losers are not to sickened by the verdict and not so in despair. It's always the PI's that take the first hit.
SP is on a run now should recover well. In my head takeover is on its way TF need to scale this up and a offer around 70 million taking into account all debts etc I think would be fair. I'm going with 27p Rose glasses firmly in place time to buy some share and stop talking on here. This is getting expensive for me. GLA About to be back in
Payday. What's your own estimate of current value, if you discount any penalties as being kicked forward by a year or two .... by which time, in the great scheme of things, they may well be negligible?
Bought in at 4.5, this is way under valued now on existing earnings alone. Can see a takeover on the horizon at many multiples of today’s price.
I bought three smallish chunks this am - all showing as sells. Since most of my buying has been mid-teens, this is a good opportunity for a useful average-down. I wouldn't be surprised if it recovers to double figures for Xmas.
You are correct, it is showing as a sell.
Agreed. Also, if you are onboard already, it's showing as a sell. No surprise there.
Interesting verdict Tuesday. The drop in share price seems to value the company's business in the UK at 50% of the total which is not the case as stated earlier. Overreaction of the market and I believe the SP will rise from here. Also, with these verdicts it depends on which judge you have so I understand the 'vagueness' that the CEO portrays. They just do not know what will happen next and cannot say what they think as this is a listed company (just facts). In my experience this can go either way and the company is right not to make bold statements. The judges will read this too. Eventually a solution will be reached and this co will develop its markets further. Decided to get on-board now as outlook positive from here and a great product that I support wholeheartedly. GLA MS
In a nutshell, it seems that nothing happens to any party until the appeal is decided. Worst case is that our revenues continue to grow in rest-of-world then, after two more years, we have to cough up something. Best case is that appeal rules some (I doubt all IMO) of the Illumina IP invalid, in which case even less to pay. Personally, I doubt that Roche for one will take this passively.
Well we can definitely assume that Ariosa/Roche will appeal. In the event that one party appeals and the others don't what happens then?
I heard SL thought our experts did very well. that doesn't help him or they should not carry the can of blame
Given the subjectivity, and the fact that overturning some of these decisions would be a severe blow to Illumina, I wouldn't be surprised to see TMO pressing for an appeal, if allowable. Also, I believe it is the case in the UK that, if any one party decides to appeal, then all parties are subjects to the appeal and, of course, the duration of the appeal prevents any decisions of the initial case being put into operation, which gives more time for NIPT to consolidate and, even, start turning a profit, as an appeal would surely last up to two years??
Agreed Jackdaw, it's not black and white and as you say, it does sound like the Illumina paid "expert witnesses" were better prepared and knew what they needed to say. If you read the whole judgement, there's lots of stuff about is it "non-obvious", what is unique about the process and so on ... Presumably, whoever granted the FTO believed that the patents were not infringed or were invalid. At least we now have the decision and can plan / develop the business accordingly, whether that includes some settlement / licence for the UK or not.
Agree with the RNS very lacklustre. After all that's happened they have just thrown a bone to keep or try to keep the PIs happy with language and wording very similar to the Vialogy days. Think the MMs called it wrong this morning and the rise was sold into. SL needs to stop his ramblings. If a TR1 lands with a major holder selling out this will tip this .... the BOD need to come clean give a cash position and reassure investors not make up some lab with no name coming into action in 7 months time. I still believe long term holders will get their money back and would say a buyout Is on the cards.
To be clever in hindsight. I�m waiting for 4p and I�m pretty sure I�m going to get it
Yes, but the problem is that the law doesn't deal in "facts" but in interpretations. I'm sure you've read the whole verdict so you can see just how much room there was for interpretation. To some extent I agree with the company that Illumina were not on rock solid ground (with regard to originality) and they were, to some indefinable quantity, fortunate that it went their way. It does seem to me that the decision was swayed a great deal by the "quality" (=reputation?) of the expert witnesses and I'm really not sure that Prem's lawyers did the best job they could here. As with so many decisions open to interpretations, I do think it could have gone a different way with different people involved (witnesses, lawyers, and judge) and I am not sure the co can be so roundly condemned for "getting it wrong" when it had a significant chance of being right.
Would be nice to see some director buying now but I guess they may not be able to buy if negotiations are ongoing with ILL and TF. Although I have little sympathy for them some of the directors are well under water on the shares they bought in the 2015 placing and Barry Hextall bought at 18p. Hindsight is a wonderful thing but we should have settled and I agree with Twix that the positions of some of the directors look untenable given the verdict.
Why do they have to be secretive anonymous with today's Asian lab rns? No name, no details . I am still gutted at verdict. Illumina were I thought the byword in not winning in court until they met the mighty Premaitha who also on top of the usual invalid patent claim also do NOT infringe anyway!!! I stated some reservations before the verdict, but I am clear that there is no excuse for SL when ruled we do infringe. That is one area we should have been able to prove if it were a fact and is unforgivable . aimho
Well I've added more shares today on a T20 and as we continue to gain support abroad for our products I'm quietly confident we'll return to the mid 20s by the end of 2018 ish
The maximum term of a European patent is 20 years from its filing date. The priority date, sometimes called the "effective filing date", is the date used to establish the novelty and/or obviousness of a particular invention relative to other art. The Priority Date of the patents in question are as follows: Lo 1: 4 March 1997 Quake 1/2: 2 February 2006 Lo 2/3: 23 July 2007 In terms of specifics dates these patents lapse I wouldn't know however. Think the bounce back will start from here as all the worst case scenarios have been understood by market now
What the hell do I know, price is up 14%! I give up!
Yes positive but I can’t see it driving the price much higher, it is as you say largely symbolic. It’s great the judgment affects only operations in the UK but could they extend their claims against us to the EU? Haven’t they done that with other customers like Genoma and Centrum Baden? Or are they concerned about antagonizing the EU Commission? Or do they just go after our customers? What does that mean for the large laboratory group we signed up in the EU? Out of interest and I think it has been raised before, how long are Illumina’s patents valid in the UK? They are pretty old and I thought parents lasted only 10 years? Sorry for all the questions but as we all know there are so many more than answers!
Cheers, the reason for still holding is that if an agreement is made with Illumina, which can happen, and even if more TMO support is taken to pay for compensation and operating costs - the BoD would eventually have to sell some time next year as TMO would have close to 50% under warrants by then. In which case you should see a sale of 24p+.