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I don't believe it is scaremongering as I said why on earth would Illumina want to license to Prem, unless they are told to?
Exactly so all this talk of no deal being possible or at terms that would involve incredibly massive share dilution is fear mongering by some. A sale even on a distressed basis of 24p+ to cover the high water mark of the TMO Warrants.
yes notaflipper, using Natera figures then Prem sp should be 40p+ on approx. 55/60k tests per annum.
I do not think the significance of the 11,000 test volume was fully appreciated here. Test volumes for the first half are expected to be in excess of 22,000 (H1 2016: 11,000 tests; full year to March 2017: 24,000 tests) . Premaitha 1st half test volumes, excluding Yourgene, were up 140% to c.15,000 tests. Now you can see the 11,000 announced today is a big jump up How does circa 50k to 60k test volumes compare to the rest of the NIPT market?: (a) Ariosa (Roche) including licensees: 213,300 tests (22% Market share) (b) Sequenom: 153,900 tests (c) Verinata (Illumina): 192,000 tests (d) IP Pool (Sequenom & Illumina): 489,300 tests (50% Market share) (e) Natera including licensees: 254,900 tests (26% Market share) You can google what the market capitalisation so Natera's is US$ 712.66M the number of tests yield.
I think all the speculation and fear mongering is just making us go in circles and we are repeating may of the past discussions that have been had already since last Wednesday. The company has already stated directly via Investor Relations or via TW what the expect will be the likelihood of any damages. They've stated it cannot be punitive and that the impact can only be felt on UK operations in the first instance. Will there likely be a settlement? Yes. What will be the impact of a license fee? Probably �50-�75 per test according to what they were charging GOSH. Is this a big deal? No as the IONA test is one of the cheapest around and the company has released RNS that they are making the test cheaper to run. Will there need to be a massive share dilution for the business to cope? I don't think so. Is the company still growing and can any loss of sales or damages be mopped up within the anticipated sales of next year. Yes. Only things LTHs can do now is average down now. Settle and move on. Pump up the price and sell to TMO in short order.
I don't think Illumina want to give up any licences, why would they?, it only helps Thermo if they do and the only way it will happen is if the courts order it, otherwise no chance imo. They want to eradicate Prem not help them!!
they can announce ten Rns's a day about new labs or customers and it won't make a blind bit of difference.The ONLY one that matters is when they can move forward without Illumina on their backs, how that happens we will have to wait and see. Just hope it's pdq.
Talks will be ongoing in the background with Illumina. A deal will benefit both parties
I believe any license would have to be similar to what they charge their 'friends' ,as I said in the EU at least.This is part of what the Commission is looking into.
that's the whole point of the anti-trust/competition, they can't put forward unfavourable terms can they? Not in EU anyway.
I should think negs would be possible still. Before illumina would factor in the potential to lose in court and EU comm . now they just need to think of eu comm . So, purely on court verdict aspect they would now want more from us one would assume as dynamics have swung in their favour. Sure, I would expect previously unfavourable terms, but better than we will get now. I would also assume TFO had a say as its a battle where we are a pawn. Aimho
I'm sure they did the sums at the time, comparing the cost of a licence outright / per test that they may have been offered versus 5m GBP for the defence ... factor in the risk of a win / loss ... I can only assume that any licencing options they were offered at the time were not viable and set at such a level as to prevent competition ...
so it should not be a problem to open up negotiations now then if it was once on the table?
Not going to post but I had 2 indications that point me to this conclusion and reading between the lines. Not 100% , but imv on balance of probability.
How do you know they would not issue a license ? Imv they would . it's more about price and terms
why are you fairly sure, have you some proof or it's just your opinion?
Indeed bakky , but I am fairly sure there was a good chance to do so and it could have been achieved.
I they wanted to settle they would/could have issued licences long ago imo.They will only do it if they are told to by the courts..
twix, you keep saying they should have settled, how do you know that was an option, Illumina might have said no!
When I think about it. Yourgene would seem to be our saving grace with business focus in the region and the potential mess that the court verdict means for UK and EU. I do still worry about illumina's end game after victory as all we know is they want to stop us by all remedies. A folly not to settle .
Yup, if further funding expect via TFO rather than placing. I would live TFO to bid and get this over with but sure they prefer to buy by stealth so the final price is lower too. No rush for them I suppose and can see just what illumina extract for our folly in court. Assuming TFO must match highest equity loan price (24p) then it can't come soon enough imv.
Which ever way you look at this it's still bad news......illumina will want their pound of flesh and my guess is there is not much in the kittie to pay for what they will claim for. The company thought they would win the case and illumina would back down so were.not prepared for the outcome. The sp is holding at the moment but depending on the compensation could very well drop significantly, nipt need to up their game with regard to sales considerably.
I do not think a general placing will happen. I think the market has already priced in that a further issue of Warrants will be issued to TMO. They have already gotten 30% of the company for $15m so I would expect them to get a further tranche. This in some ways the market would welcome as it would underline TMO’s continued support. It would also indicate that in time a likely offer will be made by them. When? All speculation but this may only occur around the time that the interims are released as it would allow the BoD to first declare that they are on target to achieve break-even this financial year. It would also allow them to agree the financial settlement with Illumina. I like most LTHs don’t know why they just don’t go all the way and make a full offer as by then they would have close to 40% but it would certainly be welcome by me. Either way as others have suggested the market capitalisation vs the revenues of the existing contracts alone make the share price very cheap.
Pumping away for the next placing !
On that basis I guess we're expecting more RNS this week with numbers. easy profit for some