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An interesting comparison Shearclass , I have looked up co diagnostics share price and it is currently 18$ a share which equates to £14.60. I think most would be extremely happy of half that . NCYT is at a bargain price at the moment IMO.
SS
A benchmark for the NCYT share price has to be Co Diagnostics, who are exporting their PCR test to 50 countries & 15 states. Covid test revenue to May 14th was $18m @ a gross margin of 72%.
Their pre corona market cap was $30m, and they currently sit at $490m. Interestingly, prior to releasing their Q1 results in early May they sat at $270m market cap, a remarkably similar to the current NCYT cap.
We know our EBITDA margin is over 50%, and this is effectively our profit before tax as we have very little depreciation or interest charge. So gross margins are likely to be similar to the 72% reported by Co Diagnostics.
In conclusion, I expect our market cap to be > £400m once we release confirmation of earnings & profit margins, hopefully in the July trading update if not before.
We certainly aren’t overvalued by any stretch when compared to Co Diagnostics though, especially considering our revenue is much higher than theirs.
Here is a link to their Q1 results ;
http://codiagnostics.com/co-diagnostics-releases-prepared-remarks-q1-2020-conference-call/
Seadoc - I do hope it's not taken as advice - just airing my opinions which are as variable and unreliable/reliable as anyone else's :)
Yes, I agree Q1 trading update will be eagerly devoured here. Cahflow is causing me a little bit of concern too, but if all I've read on here transpires - that could be put to bed inside of Q1 alone!
Read somewhere but can't find it, that you took out your short because you believed the SP was "overpriced". Well if that was the early part of April when I first became aware on NYCT then the SP was overbought and due a retrace to correct
- but that is entirely different to being overpriced. None of us can say with any accuracy if the SP is overpriced until the company produces earnings - which historically it hasn't to date, but I'm sure it will, well within Q1, and then a P/E ratio can be accurately calculated, and from that comparatives to both Industry medians - and sector averages. However, because of the SP performance to date I firmly expect NCYT to end up sporting a premium P/E ratio above that of its cvompetitors.
Than you Kaeren, but think I'd much rather prefer to become known as a successful investor eventually; as does everyone else of themselves, no doubt.
No - no holdings yet - first became aware of NYCT in early April and first posted around the same time. Noticed the SP was in overbought condition, so thought the smart decision would be to wait it out on the sidelines and see if the usual happens and the SP drifts lower to come back into the fold ( it was peaking around 500 around then) but this being a 'hot stock' I wasn't confident it would play ball - but it did.
Only then, I became aware of the last Gap-Up and decided to pause and played wait-see again. And it did close. They usually shoot past by a couple of pence. It did - so I was contemplating my entry point. But it kept on retracing - and I convinced myself - holy cow - it's going for the next gap up to close.
I was actually at my screen when it intradayed to high 270's - and should have taken it - but by then I was convinced it was gong for ALL the gap-up's and have done with lot in one go! But it floored in the 270's and recovered.
By the time I came to terms that instead, no, this is going to pick them off one at a time, and not all in one downtrend, there was a distinct bearish feel to the new trend. Soon my initial trend lines confirmed it. Still wouldn't stop the slight downward trajectory and now my fav go-to trend lines also confirmed this was no weenie but a proper retrace.
It hasn't stopped retracing. Hence - I'm still watching. Will post when I do buy, but not yet decided whether to post regularly on here, as made the decision that 2,000 posts per day on here was too toxic an environment, but most of those seemed to have given up the ghost and you can at last hear yourself think.
Did want to post on what I liked about the past trading history of NCYT - for a longer term hold after Covid-19 becomes old news, but we'll see.
" there was a lower gap of 20p-30p to fill "
---------------
Good grief Atisha, no not THAT low! But you can see why I'd rather not detail it.
It's just that technically, there's is another lower unclosed gap, that may never be be a candidate for closure, may never occur.
If anyone looks for it, I'd confirm if they're looking in the area as I was.
Next Gap-Up is dangerously near if this trend continues next week. But will it, continue?
Friday's close suggests maybe not. So file that final, final, uber low under thinking out loud category :)
Hi Velo, you seem a very knowledgeable poster , do you hold shares in NCYT?
I recall a respected chartist posting in March when the price range was £1-£2 range that there was a lower gap of 20p-30p to fill. I hope that is not the one you don't want to disclose? Anyway, that was of his rare predictions to fail, so far. But if sales figures aren't up to expectations!!
Your theory on Seadoc's short is interesting, as he is frequenting the board more often. But he comes over as a decent sort. No doubt he will tactfully reply.
Pretty sure I saw a post below from Seadoc, that he would consider closing his short if the SP retraced to 270. I immediately thought: Ahh I wonder if Seadoc is playing: Close the Gap-Up's? But when I rechecked the next Gap Up - it's below that, at circa a little below 220.
There are 3 unclosed Gap Up's.
Two camps of thought hold that price always returns to close the gap and then re-continue the old prevailing trend in place beforehand, and the other camp holds that they don't - it's just coincidence. I support the former even if it takes years to do so.
The last Gap Up was approx 14th April leaving a gap of 440 down to circa 379. That was closed a week later but the trend continued and eventually intraday'ed down to as far as the high 270's - So perhaps Seadoc was intimating that if the price revisits that low again, he will close his position on that?
I'm intrigued to see if it closes the next Gap which is stationed just below 220 up to 250-ish, and leaves me wondering is that where this downtrend is heading, if it doesn't disintegrate next week, and return to the uptrend?
Below that is the largest Gap up of them all - but I won't even mention it, as it just looks horrendously unfeasible. It's reckoned if a gap up has high volume when it occurs the SP is unlikely to return and close it as that's considered a break out / continuation Gap-up and only those gap-up's that occur on low volume (last gasp Gap-Up exhaustion) will get a revisit to close.
Thing is they all took place on high volume days so shouldn't get a revisit, yet the last one did get a revisit and close; hence my curiosity if the next one on the list gets a revisit - the 220-ish - 250 area of the 7th/8th April?
There is another large Gap up to go, far below that - but it is so far below I can't envisage that ever getting a revisit.
Just curious to see if the second from the top Gap up, of early April is the destination of this curious bearish retrace, or whether Friday's bullish performance signals the end of this down trending retrace.