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Go and listen to the most recent presentations again and post honestly about all of these ‘observations’ you have made TG
Ddubya
A very good point that investors have literally nothing to go on to place a value on this business and Troublesome also touches on a pertinent point that prior Board guidance has in reality turned out to be pretty empty and unreliable.
As others have noted the only 'worthy' source or indication of future prospects is LOAMs buying and selling shares which always to date has been ahead of company annoncements, wonder why!
Hence following the ending of the share buyback programme at the end of May or early June if there is no signs through TR1 notices that LOAM is buying despite the share price no doubt drifting down its fair to say its unlikely that any commercial orders will materalise in the near future!
BT has made it clear he's not interested in who the end custoner or product is as the size and number of silicon wafers containing qd's cut and sold to the likes of ST Micro is all that matters.
But if you don't know what the end product that Nanoco's qd's will be used in how do you gauge demand for the end product and hence demand for Nanoco's qd's without which how do you place a value on both the share price and hence business.
This is perplexing as simply churning out wafers doesn't give investors any details on future growth potential in terms of sales, earnings, and cash flows and in what markets and what end products.
It also makes planning for growth virtually impossible as you don't know if the end product demand will grow rapidly, decline, or cease altogether so how do you plan for capital investment.
If BT actually believes what he is saying he's going to have a pretty hard time of it trying to convince investors that he sees no reason why Nanoco and its share price is presently under valued while in the same breadth stating the firm is only cutting wafers and it doesn't matter what end products the wafers go into.
This is even before you consider the USA legal obligations as a high tech silicon wafer supplier where regardless of where you sit in the supply chain you must legally ensure that your product doesn't end up in products supplying sanctioned countries and markets.
"Please be aware that elections under the Excess Facility have been subject to scaling back. In accordance with the terms of the Excess Facility, shareholders who elected to tender more than their Basic Entitlement have had approximately 99.2579 per cent of their excess elections satisfied."
Yes T, there is no visibility of orders for PI at least, so we are left guessing. I don’t see too much point in following too closely because the information that would move the SP simply is not available.
We could be very close to positive news or years from it, who knows?
Meantime, the SP seems to want to drift lower despite the regular repurchases. That’s another symptom of the secrecy that surrounds our marketplace, the end products and stages of development we are at with third parties.
I've always thought 5 years was 5 years but time and patience are all relative concepts anyway.
At least 2 years wait here before any commercial orders of any significance IMO and that may even be wishful thinking given the lack of detail and unknowns. Of course, hope springs eternal but grasping at straws does not encourage new investors. No mention of AVP here hardly now given months of speculation but just more dangling carrots such as STM sensors that are always just out of reach in terms of substantial orders - I think the Board know there will be no game-changers for quite some time and will just move the goalposts at the most appropriate time, as per usual tactic.
Kooba, all valid points. I should say the 5 year cycle is in reality quite a bit more than that and we know Nanoco were working with ST as part of the supply chain for the "major US customer" from 2018. I believe they've met all milestones and the dates haven't slipped, but we investors aren't exactly the most patient people. We all want news and we want it now!
Watching colloidally grown lead sulfide quantum dots dry in an industrial fab environment has tested my patience at times... Think I might go and buy a drone with NIR capabilities to while away the time..
That’s £1m out of £3m spent by the end of the day!
Once the buy back is completed, SP goes up on the next results as the SP determinate is nearly always EPS.
I certainly have my feet on the ground ..and the five year super cycle developing a new product is due now since they started working on this over 4 years ago ..it would be good if there was some real evidence on stm products of using not even Nanoco materials but CQD or nanomaterials , not just third party guesstimates of potential market expansion ( didn’t prove that useful with qd displays!) or for statements saying STM hasn’t spent money developing products with us for small sales…STM is a very large company and likely has many irons in the fire , its annual r&d spend is $2b . The potential in SWIR sensors is there and apparently our materials will play a part..soonish. Just a tiny bit of evidence would be nice…at least STM has finally allowed little old Nanoco to mention their name even if the one and only order from them is very small…maybe things can get a bit more open shortly.
Kooba, annoyingly you keep beating me to it each time ;-) I've been reading through all those papers and others - I also found no mention of Nanoco in any STM tech specs. I didn't see that as a bad thing. Nanoco have developed a component material and have their own IP. STM use that component material and have built it into a quantum film with their own IP. Two different products. These two companies seem to be working well with each other and have done for many years. We investors focus on the daily SP and half-yearly and annual results where I think the real value is in the 5 year super-cycle of developing a new product, where there seems to be confidence that there will then be a market for that product. This is what I meant when I cryptically said we've been concentrating on the finger instead of the moon...
We know the process of putting quantum dots on silicon isn’t unique to ST, but that they are the only ones who are investing in producing them at scale for mass market devices. It’s not that they have been investing years just to develop a new technology – we know they’ve been investing in being able to reliably produce that technology at scale for the mass market. We were told that already by BT. ST have been building an oil rig...
We also know STM built an additional 300mm fab in another country, i.e. more than one oil rig to meet supply demands of mass market adoption (not necessary just of these sensors of course)..
It's difficult to do but I've had to step far back to before 2020 to see the bigger picture and to look at the progress they've made working with STM. Doing that has been like watching a snail move using stop motion photography! So I feel positive right now. And we've not even talked about the 2nd customer / partner we've also been working with for years... or the 3rd one they told us they hoped to sign in H1 2024...
But putting both feet back on the ground, it's about turning that all potential good stuff into profits.
LordWM
I hadn't finished my analysis so didn't and don't want to set hares racing. I found a few likely candidate sensors but was looking for ways to get more confidence before posting anything. And I didn't know if what I found was old news to this BB. No time now for me just now and looks like Kooba and others have also done a lot of digging into this - perhaps way more than me.
But I've definitely been seeing green shoots, and maybe on a day that will finally dawn!
Can’t actually remember if this was posted but the scientific paper on STM using QDs from Feb 2023 . Unfortunately no credit to whoever supplied the QD’s or clues to the products to market featuring the QD technology. Its odd there is no secret that STM are using QD’s in the SWIR sensor technology ..but then they do not seem to mention it in the spec although it produces very enhanced results.
https://csmantech.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/14.1_2023-CS_MANTECH-paper-Feb-2023-V2.pdf
300mm fabs are go.
Could the VL53L9 also include QDs? Plus this names a first end customer (Lanxin Technology) with VD55H1 (apologies if already posted).
"ST is also announcing news of its VD55H1 ToF sensor, including the start of volume production and an early design win with Lanxin Technology, a China-based company focusing on mobile-robot deep-vision systems. MRDVS, a subsidiary company, has chosen the VD55H1 to add high-accuracy depth-sensing to its 3D cameras. The high-performance, ultra-compact cameras with ST’s sensor inside combine the power of 3D vision and edge AI, delivering intelligent obstacle avoidance and high-precision docking in mobile robots.
In addition to machine vision, the VD55H1 is ideal for 3D webcams and PC applications, 3D reconstruction for VR headsets, people counting and activity detection in smart homes and buildings. It packs 672 x 804 sensing pixels in a tiny chip size and can accurately map a three-dimensional surface by measuring distance to over half a million points. ST’s stacked-wafer manufacturing process with backside illumination enables unparalleled resolution with smaller die size and lower power consumption than alternative iToF sensors in the market. These characteristics give the sensors their excellent credentials in 3D content creation for webcams and VR applications including virtual avatars, hand modeling and gaming.
First samples of the VL53L9 are already available for lead customers and mass production is scheduled for early 2025. The VD55H1 is in full production now. "
https://mvpromedia.com/stmicroelectronics-expands-into-3d-depth-sensing-with-latest-time-of-flight-sensors/
I didn’t see your post LM. That’s the video I was referring to. 🙏
VD55G1 is launching in May. There’s a YouTube video on it from 10th April
XenOn, do we think the ST VD55G1 is the product with Nanoco's QDs then?
There's certainly lots of GTM launch activity from ST right now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dkcqmV_e7n8&list=PLnMKNibPkDnH8s-eBnz0acd-CSWZH3rJO&index=9
https://www.st.com/en/imaging-and-photonics-solutions/vd55g1.html
Yeah, I didn't recall whether anyone had already called out "ST’s new VD55G1 is sampling now, with volume production slated for March 2024" but presumed it must have all been covered before on this BB. Been researching specs of all ST sensors and possible end users / collaborations but not expecting to find "the answer".
Found some other stuff of interest, again could all be old news to you or this BB. Again, excuse the pun, trying to join up all the dots. Clearly lots of market potential even with gen1 sensors. Been going through iphone roadmaps, and how sensors behind the new punch hole design are being testing in iphone 16 but not expected to be included until iphone 17 in 2025.
Which got me thinking that gen2 dots won't be available by 2025 so maybe, just maybe, it could end up with sensors with gen1 dots in...
And then i got to thinking that I need some sleep.
Good luck with research..there is very little to work with so you likely know as much as anyone else. They have had one very small commercial order from STMicro involving two materials . We have no idea of the end customer or use…or for how much the first order was for cash wise. Marketing the sensors that have the materials in is entirely down to STM we have not been told the product that the materials are in but this seems likely..though does not mention nano materials or QDs in the spec. So we don’t even know the STM product for sure.
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2023/12/07/2792565/0/en/STMicroelectronics-reveals-a-new-global-shutter-image-sensor-that-offers-high-resolution-in-a-compact-form-factor-and-low-power-consumption.html
So there is little to go on apart from the bullish guidance by the company and the cashflow breakeven targets and what that would have to mean in sales..which seems rather ambitious.
Be delighted if anyone can add any further detail but having tried I can’t get beyond totally relying on the company narrative and have no independent sources to collaborate what they say. Unfortunately while accepting decent upside from current levels if they deliver on latest guidance , there has been a habit of moving goalposts so it would be good to have something more concrete to support the latest targets. But as you know I am somewhat sceptical as I judge more on past delivery than future promises.
I'm certainly not suggesting they had any information prior to the tender that wasn't in the market. I just wonder if they are, excuse the pun, sensing some good mood music. The research I've been doing recently provides me with optimism but I can't put thoughts on paper yet and it might be nothing you don't already know. Anyone got any tea leaves?
I thought the timing of the initiation of coverage note from the new broker Cavendish who were appointed Dec last year odd as well as the PR push when in reality there was nothing much new to talk about , I thought their price target very generous as there is so little evidence of traction as yet , though their forecast post tender should be higher still as they obviously see far more value in the organic business than the market. Was it timed to cover backsides, don’t see why , directors were participating so pretty sure they are not working on any information not in the market. Might it have put some shareholders off selling ? Maybe , but sensible to treat shop targets with a pinch of salt .but if it did it enabled those that tendered their whole holding like LOAM to get more away at 24p than they might have I guess. I think there is a concerted effort to push the valuation up ..this seems mostly a vanity exercise as the company has never had 3/4 clear funding in place before and has no need to seek funding at all.
The only thing with the Cavendish note on orders is they forecast £8.4m FY to July 2024…this is against the £8.5m forecast by the company Oct 2023 before the first order so they are not factoring in any additional revenue above and beyond the R&d and Samsung contribution. So if anyone thinks there is nailed on business in the next few months it’s news to them too.
Troublesome
You are right, investing in Nanoco for so long has been a rollercoaster ride for us all and many times I've felt sick and wanted to get off.
I'll give you my honest opinion. I think BT is doing a good job. I think the Samsung payout was the right result for the company, but I wasn't happy about the communications in advance.... And, let's just say I really wasn't comfortable when ME sold his shares when he did.. So, I might be optimistic now - more than I've been for a long time - based on everything I'm hearing, but it's not blind faith and I'm prepared to be critical of the company at times.
@Xenon
Forget it - I see you've been 'lurking in the shadows' since 2013.
@Xenon
I don't want to sound combative either but could you describe the personal scars and false dawns that you've experienced while invested in thius company - apologies if I've missed something in your background and for my interference.
Kooba, without wanting to sound combative, I wonder it could be seen as confidence by the company its own near term prospects. They've been making positive noises for quite a while now, and yes we've all got the scars and have seen a lot of false dawns. But after many years working with STM developing materials that have finally reached production maybe they are feeling confident that there will be positive news in the coming months.
Something that I spent a lot of time thinking about before the tender was why they would have been happy with / endorsed their own Financial Adviser and joint Corporate Broker Cavendish's bullish forecast prior to the 24p tender. I couldn't get my head round the timing. It felt I was being talked out of taking 24p as the forecast was much higher - albeit I know broker forecasts are usually optimistic. So.. I considered they might have been covering themselves, i.e. the tender genuinely was a premium to the SP at that time, but if positive developments followed they could rightly say they guided the market to expect good things...
But as you know I'm an optimist!