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TS, search "investor meet nanoco 2024" on youtube. 56mins 40 seconds in.
BT says "our customer (ST) has told us we should expect (more) orders but they have not told us when"
I think we know stm have never mentioned Nanoco or any orders publicly as far as i am aware , Nanoco has said that stm have led them to expect further orders so we have the company’s interpretation of STM s Intent. Mostly we rely on Nanoco saying that stm did not develop this product ..whatever it is to sell small amounts of it..which makes sense but then we have no means of really being able to ascertain where the stm product fits in the global market for SWIR sensors and whether the stm product is gaining any traction. Odd position to be in.
I queried the forecasts given by the company and its marketing research and was told
“When we give guidance for the following year we include assumptions about revenue wins (this is normal practice for most companies). The alternative is to explicitly state that the revenue guidance is based only on contracted orders.”
So it is saying current guidance includes anticipated contract wins..which is what i have been referring to ..they are not anticipating any material orders that move the revenue forecast at all , one given pre first order which was for £8.5m revenue this financial year. I was somewhat disappointed in this, as was expecting there to be some build up.
Of course, you could be more certain than BT - now that would be quite something !
@Xenon
As you know words are important, thinking what someone said is not quite the same.
Yet you gave the impression that you're 99.99% certain !
Troublesome, I’d have to go back and listen to the half year results presentation. I thought BT said it in the Q&A section.
LordVM, you would not want to know how much research I’ve been doing into this over the past few weeks. I’ve not posted anything, which will annoy some, as I’ve not had any concrete info. And I didn’t want to spam the board with everything I found as a lot of it has already been published by Kooba and others.
Basically, I’ve been down a lot of rabbit holes!
All I am certain of is that our dots are in the VD55G1, due for full production release about now. The SWIR sensor our dots are in doesn’t seem to have a name yet.
@Xenon
Could you quote the words used where we told by STM to "expect" more orders.
Kooba, I guess they could point to previous guidance, such as the half-year results, in which they told us that they had been told by ST to expect more orders.
In terms of an 2nd order influencing the SP, I think we would need to know a lot more about the order than they would be willing or able to publish. I.e. if they don’t provide much or any detail half of the investors might jump for joy and the other half might say they expect it is probably a small order. So I’m not sure it would move the SP much at all. Personally speaking, I am 99.99% convinced that Nanoco will receive follow on orders from ST but am 0.01% sure what the size of those orders or our profit margin will be!
I'd love to know what the STMicro product is that contains Nanoco's dots.
This one looks particularly exciting - VL53L9, and many of the ST project team that worked on it and Product Marketing people launching it are making a lot of noise about it (you can see their posts on Linkedin). If this is the one we could see a fast pick up in orders/adoption.
Are there any more technical people who have a view on this?
https://www.st.com/en/imaging-and-photonics-solutions/vl53l9ca.html
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/laurentplaza_stmicroelectronics-expands-into-3d-depth-activity-7166441160897462272-bWqf?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W-7BENMOQV0
As stated before current guidance makes no allowance for any additional revenue above and beyond Samsung accounting and the r&d work know about for the current year…so nothing is factored into their guidance for commercial revenues at all.
Adding to that obviously there is expectation of performance in the current year in the market from the company and broker Edison forecasts..so if there was further small orders that collectively materially moved that expectation I believe they would have to produce a trading update as soon as they were aware such guidance was wrong ..a “likely to be higher than current market forecasts” so the research could be updated.. The financial year closes in July and they often produce a standard update in early August.
Valid point..they made a song and dance of the first commercial order which i still believe is smaller than any guidance but since their business is making and producing nano-materials any additional order would not necessarily have to be announced unless it met disclosure criteria and it was indeed meaningful..it would be their normal course of business. They could also carry on the share buyback as it is arms length and again small incremental orders are part of its business model and should be expected.
Having said that i would have to say that getting a second follow up order of any kind could be seen as information that is public could influence and ordinary investors view and lead to a price movement” so i guess they would have to take that on board as members of staff would be aware of further orders and it could be deemed price sensitive if it leaked.
Forgot to add, naturally we don't ever expect to be able to tie the order income with quantities of dots sold as it would be commercially sensitive.
I am assuming Nanoco doesn't have to publish an RNS each time it receives more orders from ST for the two types of dots? Or would they have to say something if the order was significant?
If they don't have to send more RNS's about follow on orders I guess we won't know more until they maybe say something in the commentary on the unaudited preliminary end of year results in October, or possibly in the year end trading update in August?
Most certainly, its more like asphalt and bitumen at the moment that's so easily washed away and creates potholes.
The last concrete news was really the first commercial order in the company's history but needs re-inforcing with far more detail - apologies for the analogies but new tyres may well provide a smoother ride.
Indeed. They only spent £36k on share buy backs yesterday. Doesn't look like many people want to sell at the current SP I guess. If yesterday's levels were to be the norm going forward they will be buying back shares until mid-July.
Scaling back buys due to volume but still seem to be close to 50% of the stripped out volume so they are taking any sells..this time working on the bid which seems more appropriate as is the price paid. Seems the volume may continue slipping back post tender as there is no news for now and it really will need something concrete to get some excitement going.
I'm never really happy with things staying dull and level but
Que Sera Sera !
Agreed. If the daily volume keeps trending lower the company would have to reduce their buys or the SP would drift upwards II assume. Good for the company if it's levelled. However, I'm not guessing what'll happen from here over the next 1-3 months. I'll just keep watching ST like a hawk and listening out for company announcements. I'd be quite happy if things stayed dull and level in the short term. What will be will be.
Don’t disagree that the selling appears to be drying up ..but the main buyer is the company.
Depends how they play it from here ..they can either try to buy down or can prop them up and even walk them better…though I would have thought they would want to buy as cheap as possible.
Evidence today is they prop and start paying up. Who knows. Ultimately the price will reflect commercial traction not be dictated by the company’s balance sheet activities!
Your interpretation is probably better than mine. Yeah, I’m keeping tabs, it’s £1,100,763
Averages say that would last another 26 days, but that’s not a good indicator as their bb rate has slowed down, so it is currently likely to last longer than that. But It’ll be what it’ll be I guess.
Did you get how much spent so far ..I started tracking it but gave up!
Guess it must be a bit over £1.1m?
All sounds about right but I’m not going back over every day. If you deduct the Nanoco print and divides remaining volume by that amount will give you true picture. But the selling appears to be drying up yep and they still have firepower and it looks today that they were taking offers not just sitting there absorbing sells. To be fair it was a bad mark because they paid the high order book print for the whole fill when the broker must have picked a fair few up below that level. You either work the order for a commission or take a turn..Cavendish must have done both to get a print at 19.2p…just my nterpretation.
Kooba, can you check my maths pls. Since the buyback started I make it that the company has purchased 5,302,431 of its own shares. Total trading volume in that period has been 20,803,398 if I remove the double counting as you say.
So, I make it the company is buying back an average of 25.5% per day. Albeit that jumped over 50% in the 2 days before they had a pause. Since then they are buying back at half the rate but today that would still be 40% of the total. Have I got that right?
With the overall volume of trades trending lower they will need to reduce their BB's further or they would go above 50% again if that trend continues.