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I think with the reduced revenue coming from the limits on Whiplash claims via small claims courts NAHL has a clear alternative mitigation strategy and is sensibly preserving cash to invest in its growth areas across its divisions. At 2x we are still looking at dividends around 7% year unless we get a slow down in housing and car accidents. They have great partners now like Redde and when you look at the bush acquisition fully taken up capital raising at 350p / share this looks to be in an oversold position. It’s still highly profitable with a slight increase in debt which is to be expected as they invest in growth areas.
oh, and our dividend has been cut enough to make people sell up and drive the price down further
and yet a month later we're int he toilet at 100 and sometimes sub 100 :( :(
Interesting that Oryx are significantly increasing their holdings on the eve of our results, clearly hugely undervalued from the updates. Suspect fair value is c. 200p. Very comfortable to be in and waiting right now.
... repeating as per last year as I've said before.
This is an interesting play when you look back and see not so long ago they diluted in a fund raising at 355p per fully subscribed to acquire Bush Legal, nothing broken since apart revenue and profit off a little and under the radar we find ourselves under 150p - One would think this could get to about 200p if the results show stability or even a little growth. The dividend percentage could also be really high. Not long to wait now....
Half year results are due on 18 September according to trading update RNS 18 July. With the business performance and good level of dividend expected shares may rise further. FinCapp target in March 257p!
Up 5% then down 3% then up 8% today....anyone know why?...no major big buys and no RNS.
Not complaining but why the jump?
and the buy .. http://www.oryxinternationalgrowthfund.co.uk/fund/oryx/information
Have the finish to sell?
or takeover?
.. or out?
... Schroders down to 8% holding anyone?
... just shy of a month until results ... someone selling late into the afternoon on a regular basis ... starting to clear funds for the upside :)
.... and if the MMs want to sell even lower ... even better.
I’m seeing two 100k trades ... so my guess is a share transfer across accounts ... that 100 K was hanging around on level 2 for a week or so .... ... I’ve grabbed some more at 107.5 .... Someone wants to sell at that price on no news ... all fine by me.
I hope you're right Temple...this has dropped about 25% over the last 2 months for no real reason.
I can't see anything in the press to suggest why there's been a drop and with news on the way there's no reason to suppose it'll be negative so I think you are right....that massive sell of £100k+ just after 4pm hasn't helped though.
I topped yesterday ... 6 months downtrend results in the way in a few weeks MMs will shift this up 20% in a day with a sniff of positivity... in my view
Interim dividend will be c. 3p. they are due to make around 19p profit this year and new dividend policy is 2x cover, meaning 9p total dividend. They pay out 1/3 at interim, hence 3p. That allows them to invest to grow without substantially increasing net debt over time (although this year it will increase).
Certainly hope so ...I read on another board that analysts expect an overall dividend of 10p so I doubt we'll see 5.3 interim but it would be a good move on their part to have a healthy interim to stem the share price drop of late.
can we expect the Interim dividend in September to be 5.3p, the same as last year ?
Tough week for NAHL ….As long as they don't mess with the Dividend then i'm not so bothered as I'll hold this share forever.
Trying to guess the motivation of others is a tricky game. They're going through a slight down year during which they are investing in an ABS model which will allow them to continue to participate in a wide variety of claims going forward and also take advantage of a consolidation in the marketplace. Regulation helps companies like this, And it is available at 6x a bad year's earnings. There are very few (arguably no) cheaper companies with this level of margin of safety available in the UK today
As I’d said over on the Advfn board, given the reduced dividend, and the uncertainty at the time over future earnings, these are two reasons that large shareholders would have for rebalancing their positios in the stock.
I’m predicting somewhere around 10p dividend for the current financial year, based on their 2* divvy cover policy, and based on their current earnings.
Back in March they indicated that their business remained reasonably strong, and its good to hear that they’re re-affirming that view in this latest RNS.
looking at their historic performance, it looks like today’s price is now at an all time low, and has therefore fallen below all previous support levels. So we’re now into I think sideways/downward territory until it can find a new support level. I think it is likely to remain like this now until much closer to September when their next results are published.
If their divvy does come in around the 10p mark, at today’s price, that would still represent an exceptional return of around the 9% mark.
If the price drops below £1, i’ll Definitely be buying, as that is only going to help improve the yield.
L.
The reaction to yesterday is inexplicable. This business will make c.19p per share this year and its earnings will grow from there over the next 3 years. It earns excellent returns on capital and has a management team that are adept at dealing with exactly the sort of regulatory challenges they are faced with. Further, it now has until 2020 to get its ABS line of business up to steam before its existing model even begins to be affected by reforms. It's worth 200p a share as an absolute minimum and I honestly think it's worth much more than that.