The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Nsci’s biggest problem is that the only way to really deliver tangible returns for shareholders is via capital growth. That’s only going to come from a huge revaluation of its assets, so that the disconnect between its current mkt cap and its underlying NAV, becomes so huge that there’s no choice but for it to be recognised in an increased share price, or through the sale of one or more of its investments and a return of cash to shareholders as a special dividend, or through a floatation of same with Nsci shareholders being granted shares in a new company at the time of spin out.
It’s just not properly understood by the investor landscape yet, and the mgt team don’t seem that bothered to do anything to really sell NSCI to a wider audience …
Very frustrating
L.
Hmm. I must admit I’m a little disappointed with progress or lack thereof….
Markets have been tough certainly, but deals are still being done in the city.
Axis are the brokers involved in securing the funding for the deal, but I can’t help wondering if they’re the best placed to get it over the line. If it was me, I’d be trying to cast my net as wide as possible. I’m not entirely convinced that everything that could be done , is being done.
Maybe we’ll have good news early in the new year…..
L.
We’re only into the 4th month. Normally these things take around 6 months or so.
FCA have been in receipt of a 2nd draft of the prospectus for about 3 weeks now, so I’d anticipate us hearing something pretty soon now.
As I’ve said before the only thing I could see holding it up is whether the financiers get spooked by the recent escalations between Israel/hamas. A wider escalation of that situation could have knock on effects on markets globally….
Let’s hope it stays contained….
L
Wouldn’t surprise me if it’s to do with the share buyback. Mom’s have to replenish their books and sure fire way to do that is to gradually drop the price and scare investors into selling…...
Still, at 84p it’s around 9% div yield….supported by a Rock solid business that is only going to go one way….
The lower it gets the more I buy…
L
Yep, Brendan had been at 10 downing st to explain their business models, future plans and so on last Wednesday. Met with a number of special advisors to do with alternative energy sources that report in to the cabinet.
Sounds like behind the scenes they have some very smart people working there, even if you don’t think much of the ministers themselves lol
L
I think the main risk to the success of the RTO will be confirming the financing for it.
If you examine the news link on the line hydrogen website for their production facility in Tasmania, at the bottom of that article is mention of the RTO, but it also talks about a 43 million pre money valuation. Which is a sizeable figure to raise, but not unheard of.
I just hope that this weekend’s flare up between Israel and Hamas doesn’t have a wider effect on global markets and spook the investors they’ve already lined up to pull out at the last minute.
Out of interest, and this is just a guess, but given that there is 60.7 million shares already in issue in NZI, if they were to propose an additional 939.3 million shares as part of the RTO at say somewhere between 4 and 5p, that would provide for the pre money valuation, with an offer price not too far above the original 3p price of NZI shares when they first came to market …
Food for thought…..
L
I had dinner with Mike Ellwood, & Brendan and Gina from Line Hydrogen on Wednesday.
It’s safe to say I think that it’s still on. Prospectus is with the FCA in its 2nd draft format .
Without specifics, I think we’ll be hearing fairly soon.
What is interesting is just how ambitious Brendan and Gina appear to be.
My impression is that we could be in for quite an exciting journey with the Line/NZI RTO.
came away quite upbeat. I think this is probably going to be a much better deal than the previous one that fell through last year.
L
True, but then look at Cornish lithium, take the govt grant into account plus the recent fundraising, they’ve raised far in excess of that figure.
Who knows, you might even get one or two of the big oil companies taking an interest…. (Wishful thinking heh)…
L
Total guess, but I’d say at least £3-£5 million, could be a lot higher I suppose.
Ideally I imagine you’d want a 3-5 year cost run way: salaries, administrative overheads, office leasing etc etc, and then when you look at the projects they’re involved with in Tasmania, maybe what another £5-£10 million perhaps?
Expansion plans into uk, Europe and so on I’d guess are likely to be funded on a case by case basis post RTO completion.
So maybe anything up to £20 mill perhaps?
Total speculation of course…. (Could still be a lot less). What will be more important is the share price that they set in the prospectus . All the original money got in ar around the 3-3.75ish pence area.
Rupert l of primorus has sunk close to £500k in on market purchases for his stake, as has the other sig shareholder -R Thomas.
You’ve got to think they’d be looking for at least say 100% gain, maybe more?
Looking at all the trades during its drop to 1.35 p have been relatively small overall so pretty much everyone who is in this stock with any sizeable holding will be looking for I’d have thought anywhere between 5-10p in the prospectus…. It’ll be extremely disappointing if the share price is set lower than that….
But the bigger they can make the initial float now the better.
Following fund raises could then be easier to leverage and make larger, and can be done with less subsequent dilutive effects on the shareholder base…
The Tasmanian local govt institutions though seem t be very positive towards the initiatives that line hydrogen are pushing though. Barring them pulling out at the last minute I think this has huge potential over here as there are very few players in the hydrogen market in uk/Europe.
Anyway - hopefully no more than 2-3 weeks away now, fingers crossed….
L
Subject to clearing usual approval/due diligence processes …
A prospectus is with the FCA at the moment so timeframe will depend on how fast FCA can complete their scrutiny, and whether any changes are identified by FCA, and how quickly any such items are remediated…
Overall it’s all still seems to be moving forwards…
L
Process is still with FCA. From what I’ve gleaned. I suspect more likely to be in October than with September unless FCA move quickly which they don’t tend to do. … sadly…
L