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It seems we are ready for a turnaround in SP here.
Downtrend for few days,then flat sp for few days and it seems now it is ready to climb from here.
Charts are encouraging,2.6-2.65 will be here within a blink.dyor and hold tight.
3.25 will be second consolidation.
maqmood7,
you might be right...good luck to you... see what happens
with around 0.1% of the shares traded a day ..it is pretty miserable...and something needs to happen....almost just the algorithms running at the moment...
Sometimes mms move the sp with very little volume,keeping lots of sideliners out(waiting for some news or higher volume)
As charts are showing positive signs with golden cross,I expect sp to move north even with little volume.
Lets see which how high it goes.
I can see this having a decent run as the herd move in for the phase 3 trial results in the Autumn. Should be an update or two prior to starting as they get the trial recruitment numbers. Now they have the centres in Brazil they should be able to reach the numbers reasonably quickly.
It's an important trial from a global health perspective and, accordingly, it should get plenty of media attention as well.
Very short trial (about one month I believe) and relatively low risk given all the favourable results so far, although no phase 3 is without risk of course. Hard to say where it could move to if successful in the trial, but back to the highs from the UK listing levels would be nice.
NickE
The trial is 28 days per patient ...it isnt actually 28 days in total for the whole trial....it depends when each patient starts their evaluation period ... you have to be VERY careful what these guys tell you.... they can have a habit of saying one thing in one RNS and then another in another RNS ....
They said they have "applied" for eight additional clinical sites in Brazil. They haven't as yet added anything more to that
The trail then needs 3 more months of further evaluation afterwards.. at the request of the FDA
Personally, I would be cautious about expecting full results too early......
Pokerchips, there appears to be some guesswork / misinformation in your post. From the announcement on 7th July. They have announced the trial has begun so they are on track. The timeframes may be a bit tight depending on recruitment but not as extended as you have indicated. They have multiple trial sites in Israel and Brazil for recruitment. Regardless, it looks like results in Autumn this year.
From the announcement dated 7th July :-
" Expected duration: The trial is expected to commence in the coming week and conclude around September 202 1 with
results then available in October 2021. "
" Additionally, our excellent relationships in Malta gave us the opportunity to have a facility built in less than a year and a half, whose sole purpose is to manufacture CimetrA, and it was almost entirely paid for by an EU grant "
" and it was almost entirely paid for by an EU grant " ..so..out of the $10m they burnt through the last 12 months ...next to nothing actually went into paying for Malta ...
" to have a facility built in less than a year and a half"
it is just 440 sq metres with 2 floors ...give me a break....they can build a 8 storey+ office block and open it in less than a year and half .....they dont mess around ...
" MGC's future is, I believe, very bright, but it's built on a foundation that takes a long time to construct correctly, and we are toiling every day at making sure it can support the significant arc of growth we see ahead."
that takes a long time to construct correctly .....take that as meaning they will need more money to get it all done...
Nick E
I tend to quote only from company RNS ...company written quotes...not mine..they write this stuff...not me
RNS Tue, 25th May 2021
" The Company intends to expand this trial to strategic global jurisdictions, and as such has submitted an application for eight additional clinical sites in Brazil. MGC Pharma is working with the Brazilian regulatory agency, ANVISA, in order to obtain the final approvals required to progress with the study.
The first patient in Brazil is expected to be enrolled in July 2021. "
RNS 26th July
" The Company intends to expand the CimetrATM Phase III trial to other strategic global jurisdictions, and as such has applied for eight additional clinical sites in Brazil."
" but not as extended as you have indicated. "
RNS 07 May 2021
" As per the FDA recommendations and based on the last findings, MGC Pharma will initiate a sub-trial for patients who complete the Phase III trial, observing them for an additional three (3) months to document the post COVID syndrome symptoms both in the treatment and placebo groups."
RNS 12th July
Phase III CimetrA™ clinical trial commences with first patient recruited - Heading
RNS 26th July
" MGC Pharma's Phase III Clinical Trial to evaluate the efficacy and safety of CimetrATM .......will shortly commence at Rambam Health Care Campus and Nazareth Hospital EMMS."
They have also said results due in October and they have said results due in Q4 2021 (i will let you decide on what you think of all that..your choice ...take whatever from what they say as you wish ) ....
regards
That's fine but you tried to suggest that the results would not be released as there had to be a three month evaluation. That's misleading as there will be results about one month following the completion of the main trial. The three months, as you reference in your subsequent post, is a sub trial to monitor post Covid syndrome symptoms. What I guess is colloquially known as 'long Covid'.
I normally buy and hold but I don't necessarily see this as a long year or so hold but a reasonable risk/reward for the coming months of this year . That's based on the good results from phase two of the CimetrA trial and a decent prospect of a favourable phase 3 clinical trial.
There is also the phase 2 results CogniCann(R) - Phase II clinical trial evaluating the impact on dementia and Alzheimer's Disease patients. That should complete Q4.
Plenty of newsflow to come. I am not a big fan of investing in Company's with CLN's but any positive news from the CimetrA trial should outweigh that negative. I wouldn't be surprised to see a run-up in anticipation of the CimetrA results.
That's fine but you tried to suggest that the results would not be released as there had to be a three month evaluation. That's misleading as there will be results about one month following the completion of the main trial. The three months, as you reference in your subsequent post, is a sub trial to monitor post Covid syndrome symptoms. What I guess is colloquially known as 'long Covid'.
I normally buy and hold but I don't necessarily see this as a long year or so hold but a reasonable risk/reward for the coming months of this year . That's based on the good results from phase two of the CimetrA trial and a decent prospect of a favourable phase 3 clinical trial.
There is also the phase 2 results CogniCann(R) - Phase II clinical trial evaluating the impact on dementia and Alzheimer's Disease patients. That should complete Q4.
Plenty of newsflow to come. I am not a big fan of investing in Company's with CLN's but any positive news from the CimetrA trial should outweigh that negative. I wouldn't be surprised to see a run-up in anticipation of the CimetrA results.
" but you tried to suggest that the results would not be released as there had to be a three month evaluation."
Nick E
I didnt actually set out to suggest anything or mislead....although I could have expanded it a bit to indicate what I was refering to and what I thought that meant
Good luck with your investment
Regards
Turnaround
I'm not sure, at least not in the short term.
My 2p worth.
MGC has less than 12 months of free cash flow.
It has been suggested the company will reach break even by the end of the year, which I suspect is the financial year, which in Australia is I believe the end of June (2022), so pretty much 12 months from now, which means they run out of cash before they reach break even. Break even isn't profitable its just treading water, but a benchmark none the less.
They are going to need additional funding, which I suspect will mean additional shares issued.
With good news sentiment may take the SP higher, but not much and with the new shares I can see the sell price staying in the 1.75p to 2.5p range for the next couple of years.
If they fail to reach break even as suggested then all bets are off and I would expect to see the SP move South of 1.75p, at which point its going to take something big to gain investor confidence and the option of further funding via the issue of new shares will not be feasable. Without making use of a loan, at this point its looking unfortunate.
If they achieve break even as suggested, I suspect further funding may be available or they could be absorbed by another company.
If and its a big IF things go well I think we may start to see investors making worthwhile gains on their investments sometime in the next 3 to 5 years. For those invested and sitting on paper losses, that may just mean achieving break even.
I am going to continue to hold my 128,440 shares for now, with the hope that the 5 to 10 year returns will be truely worthwhile.
In reality if MGC fails to reach break even by 1st July 2022, I don't think we will be talking about them in July 2023.
Pokerchips , good to have a civil discussion with you . There are of course bear points and bull points with the Company as indeed applies to every stock - particularly on AIM. I think the bull points over the next six months outweigh the negatives with MXC but respect your views.
In terms of revenues and timescales, they may be a bit optimistic but I see the CEO anticipate CimetrA being on sale this year.
With such poor prognosis for most brain cancer patients I hope and expect the Company will be allowed to accelerate the development where, relatively early stage though it may be, they state "we have been able to achieve amazing results on CBG and CBD in targeting the stem cells" without having to do any invasive surgery. See below:-
https://cannabiswealth.co.uk/2021/07/29/mgc-pharma-discusses-drug-delivery-innovation/
NickE
You last post suggests that MXC is listed on AIM, it is on the main LSE and ASX indicies, not AIM.
" I see the CEO anticipate CimetrA being on sale this year."
NickE
Roby is pretty smart guy and I dont know if he can get it on sale so quick, knowing licences etc..... if he is going through the FDA for the US then good luck with that....my personal view is he will be able to do nothing to speed anything up with them...or probably the EU if he needs a licence ....he may have to try " emergency use " application if indeed the results come in October and it is to be on sale by year end .... wow !! ...I would guess he has already tried to start the process...maybe...
I doubt they are finding those 252 patients themselves...most of what they do is outsourced...
I am afraid my own experiences of following this ....is...they use RNS and dates and projections like offering a carrot..and they have a tendency to say one date and later have to change it...and move it forwards....so...for me personally I take what they "suggest" with a pinch of salt....it can be open to "change" ...and with these guys it often is ....and they can report something and then you never hear another word about it again....see if you have found those kind of things ..
As I say Roby is smart...but Roby and Brett look after themselves..they do very nicely out of it all whether it takes 6 months or 12 months or even longer ...doesnt bother them...it isnt their money they are burning away....
Lots of people think we have little cash. But they fail to understand that WE ARE GENERATING REVENUE!!
Also malta facility is near to completion and we will soon be producing lot more and maximising bank balance.
Not ling to wait here....
Great progress is being made at our new CimetrA™ facility in #Malta, due to open in October.
Funding for the Facility is 80% supported via an EU grant programme, and will soon be ready to produce more than 200,000 monthly units of CimetrA™.
maqsood7
This isn't AQUIS with all the App users and their gambling and speculating.... the "level of understanding" is somewhat higher than your rather amusing, comment suggests.....
.."revenue is vanity but profit is sanity" as they say ...
Sideliners should think about getting in before it start taking off.
Regarding profitability it's a little early.
Because MXC is revenue producing there seems to be a lack of recognition that the Company has a substantive pharma element to it. Pharma plays are valued very differently. I think pokerchips is mistaking MXC for some pure generic healthy living / nutritional products play.
Synairgen, for example, has a phase 2 trial relating to Covid and has a £300m plu sm/cap and lost circa £14m last financial year.
MXC has a phase 3 Covid related trial with results in the Autumn. It has clinical trials for brain cancer, dementia and Alzheiner's Disease. Yet the m/cap is a shade over £50m.
In many ways MCX is much safer and attractive than a pure pharma play because it is selling products and increasing revenues. The CEO recently anticipated CimetrA being on sale this year which should boost revenues and progress towards profitability significantly. A significant amount of the work that will enhance revenues is grant funded has been pointed out in earlier posts.
The main point though is that MXC has pharma trials in areas with substantive market size and where new therapies are much needed such as brain cancer where the current treatments are very limited. Ironically, perhaps if MCX were a pure pharma with heavy losses and without other revenue strings to its bow it would get the premium values that others pharmas do.
The m/cap looks seems somewhat of a misnomer when you look at the Company in that context. I think this low valuation anomaly will be corrected if the Covid phase 3 trials are successful and pharmas often have a run up in the share price prior to clinical trial results. Not long to wait (in pharma timescales it's like the blink of an eye) and I'm anticipating a good run up as the phase 3 trial get close to completion and the results are released. There should be plenty of other newsflow as well.
NickE, PC is not mistaking but he very much know that where we will be heading soon.
No one spend months on the BB,where they have not put any money or future gain to come.
And I am sure all sideliners will be buying higher than current level!
People need to do more research,this will turnaround anytime.
NickE / Maqsood7
The last quarter .. a few expenses ...
$1.3m for research and development,
$1.7m for manufacturing and operating costs (including inventory),
$215k for advertising and marketing,
$653k staffing costs
$1.3m for administration and corporate costs (including Director fees).
Total : $5.168m
Cash and cash equivalents at end of quarter - $ 5.512m
----------
Their pipeline has potential and things are beginning to improve....their revenues have increased 25% in 2 years ...but... no way would I have invested with their cash burn rate of last 6-12 months and MCAP way up there at 100 million .... the next phase might be where they can get some results of their efforts
The question for me now...is... do they have the money for the next phase ...will they look to do a fund raise to keep up the research and project plans and operating costs of running the business
That is the question for me.... and I feel more on the side of them raising more cash to be comfortable for the next 12 months than not
Each to their own on that point
NickE / Maqsood7
sorry..I missed off that the Net cash from / (used in) operating activities - ($3,3m)... so...they can keep going until the end of the year .....
It will definitely be interesting to see how the results in October and the revenues etc are achieved then and how they feel the cash level is...in the September quarter....that will be a great read ....
good luck...thanks for your views
We got phase II and phase III trials going on and results are due in oct.
As NICKE said earlier,look at the sng doing trial,whose mcap is 300m!!
While we are already generating revenues and phaseIII trial results are due soon,we will see significant RERATE here!
All those costs mentioned are R&D and manufacturing costs,plus staff costs and directors remuneration are common in all companies. So stop scaremongering here. We all knows what is coming here including you and this is not the only company who spending those numbers in trials!! Do more research mate.