Rainbow Rare Earths Phalaborwa project shaping up to be one of the lowest cost producers globally. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Started: Redh3rring, 20 Jun 2024 11:27
Last post: MrMagorium, 21 Jun 2024 17:10
On that basis Diamondguru and how AIM usually tends to operate, are you suggesting this is a Strong buy?
The company is in a terrible state, massive debt and share price has collapsed , if the directors believed in this company then they wouldn’t have put the for sale sign out.
As per financial statements signed in March 2024:
'In November 2023 the Company entered into an offer period
and has subsequently engaged with a number of interested
parties to determine if a potential sale of the business could
deliver greater shareholder value. No sales discussions have
concluded and the business therefore remains in an
offer period.'
As per RNS pre AGM:
'musicMagpie plc has been in an offer period since 27 November 2023 during which time various conversations have taken place with interested parties. Several discussions remain ongoing and as such the Company remains in an offer period. There can be no certainty that any offer for the Company will be made, nor as to the terms of any such offer. The Panel Executive has granted a dispensation from the requirements of Rule 2.4(a) and Rule 2.4(b) of the Takeover Code such that the Company is not required to identify any potential offeror with which the Company is in talks, or from which an approach has been received.'
A few things:
-I find it interesting that they said no sales discussions have concluded, when BT and Aurelius both said they would not bid. Surely those sales discussions did conclude with no offer being made;
-Why did they walk away so fast - was there never serious interest, did they not want to be named or were the valuations so far apart that things ended fast?;
- Several discussions remain ongoing - rather than just one, so are there still more than one interested party - are BT and Aurelius still involved I wonder? Does the existing PE backer want it for themself?
- Is there literally nothing concrete and this is just being dragged out for some other purpose - like there is basically no chance its getting bought but they want to keep interest going;
- Some form of other transaction where there is a capital raise or placement rather than full sale;
Last year the pre close half year statement gave actual figures, whereas that AGM trading statement gave none. So within the next month they need to publish interim figures so we can see how they are doing.
I think there is unlikely to be a bid currently, and I think the fact that this is dragging so long is no a problem. if they believed in the business surely they can turn it around. I feel like certain facts are being left out of this.
Back in the doldrums again tapping one’s fingers…. May be a silly question but do we think this lack of movement on the takeover side is linked to the UK election? Ie overseas investors wanting political stability before progressing? Or do we think the investors are holding off till MMAG to demonstrate reversal of the trend though strong interim update? The cost cutting should start bleeding though now surely?
Started: TYLO, 13 Jun 2024 15:58
Last post: MrMagorium, 14 Jun 2024 12:44
*engineered to some extent.
Yep, 7mil cash from ops. Profits can be engine
I noticed a few things when looking under the hood at the FY23 results too - from ops the business is cash generative. The increase in debt was to buy inventory for rentals, and can be readily turned back into cash if they so choose. User figures are actually growing and the crack down on fake stamps that rivals may have sued must boost their position on resale platforms..I just think they need to focus on getting the bottom line profitable as they have alluded to. The margin improved in FY23 so I believe they know what is required here. Fail to see how the business is not able to turn around, grow and make a profit then be refloated at a massive premium if it were taken private. The clothes side of the business needs some refinement but I am sure there are lots of household products that could be resold.
15p would be a great return, that's circa 100% from here. I'd take 15p today. Why don't they just get on with it instead of issuing another 500 pointless RNS's.
In 2011, LDC, a private equity firm invested £10m in Music Magpie.
'Sales in 2009-10 from from £2.5m to £11.3m and are expected to hit £30m in the year to the end of May. Earnings are expected to have increased from £1.5m to £4m in the same period.'
Someone can buy the whole company now for less than the investment, and sales are £130m+ I think if a profit can be turned soon, this would be worth multiples of current level
Started: red0liv3, 13 Jun 2024 11:25
Last post: Swanley, 13 Jun 2024 15:05
Should be a trading announcement coming up before the interim results, c. Mid June.
Are they released without any pre-warning?
Started: go_ly_dow, 12 Jun 2024 13:30
Last post: M_Night, 13 Jun 2024 09:33
This will rise like a phoniex from the ashes today I feel
What's your view on the RNS and your fellow recommendees for balance? (Not that I'm a ramper)
Well you have to laugh at LSE boards. You're lucky to see one or two post here a day then suddenly an RNS comes out and a dozen rampers come out of the woodwork saying "I'm in, Deffo 50p, it's a bargain, this is going to 🚀..." most of those posters haven't got a pot to pi£$ in and bought £100 worth of shares and ramping the hell out of this now. They'll all be gone by 10p. 😳
Just quietly rising nicely
Should easily see 20p as anticipation to the sale builds
Started: shenners, 13 Jun 2024 05:45
Last post: HedgeHogarth, 13 Jun 2024 09:28
If serious players are making their moves and buying 100k+ or 1m - it would be very much in their interest for the SP to dip again and get some cheap ones
Or perhaps the muppet is the one naive enough not to think that their are leaks and this is AIM.
No smoke without fire - and it's not like the rise was on the back of fressh air. We saw a major position taken this week!
No ones heard anything or knows anything. What a bunch of muppets
Enlighten us?
Big news tomorrow ⚠️
Started: TYLO, 8 Jun 2024 17:39
Last post: joseywales, 12 Jun 2024 14:21
In 2020 I looked at the clothing game. If you go high end designer route it's big. Vesitaire collective are obviously the Backmarket of that space but plenty of longtime success businesses like Pandora's in Knightsbridge do very well. Again, lifestyle businesses.
Needs to be high end fashion since many well known brands simply license their brand and companies go off creating their own clothing with the brandowners permission to use their logo. So needs to be Vuitton, Chanel, Burberry and all that.
This guy buying in might be the start of MBO ... see if we get a few more high net worth chucking some money in to get a healthy consortium percentage...
You've not understood my post, the point about returns or the practicalities of online retail. The bulk of their sales currently are phones. Last I checked those didn't need to be laundered. Think about the finite number of phone models there are. A library photo of an iPhone 13 represents them all. Now think about the unlimited scale of clothing and apply that to number of of SKUs requiring management.
What a nightmare in terms of counterfeit detection, cleaning, photographing and storing - so the same as they need to do with current products.....I think clothing is actually easier to assess.
What a nightmare in terms of counterfeit detection, cleaning, photographing and storing. Unlike phones where there are only so many models, with clothing each item will be unique in some way, whether its colour design or condition, it will all have to be photographed. Think of the logistics of warehousing all these unique SKUs. Then after resale there's the hassle of returns, a notorious overhead and by far the biggest challenge for online clothes retailers. There's a good reason why even the likes of Asos with the natural scalability that comes with new product lines has been loss making for years.
Have to agree the price points are way too low considering the ease of already established alternatives.
Started: red0liv3, 12 Jun 2024 10:18
Last post: Swanley, 12 Jun 2024 13:25
Agreed, I think the reason MMAG is still in offer period as it clearly has a proposal that it likes that needed further investor(s) to get involved. With Hargreaves' involvement now, I'd hope to see something happen now and an offer to be announced.
I have to say it is quite surprising that more notice has not been taken of that investment by Mr Hargreaves. Between him and Mr Hanson they own over 6% of the issued shares.
IMO there is something about to happen. An it is not clear to me where he got the shares from as I can not see anywhere that volume traded normally. Unless I have missed something?
GLALTHs who will be hurting here at the current SP levels!
I tried to get sub-6 but just missed out.
Well spotted! I'm in!
GLA DYOR
A sea of blue trades since! Nice. GLA
Started: stargate, 24 May 2024 12:26
Last post: MrMagorium, 4 Jun 2024 14:03
A new investor isn't going to be paying the IPO price here now are they?
That was circa £2.00 and it now trades at 6.5p. In hindsight, would you be better off posting your warnings on new IPO's that you believe are over-inflated to inform 'New Investors' you want to help, if that's your intention, rather than bombed out volatile stocks, which can be manipulated with disingenous posts, like the ones you have posted on selective stocks.
I believe potential 'scam' companies should be brought to the attention of any new investors. Too many IPO's are over inflated by Management, underwriting banks and hedge funds to the detriment of inexperienced investors. JMO Adyor!
Why post the same thing on HELD and RBG boards ?
Another AIM Ponzi scheme ⚠️...?
Big(ish) sell at 6.8p. its gone Pete Tong since the post AGM mini spike.
Started: Redh3rring, 23 May 2024 09:17
Last post: Redh3rring, 24 May 2024 11:17
Definitely agree about some insider knowledge- hopefully this growth will expedite a bid! GLA
Excellent rise here in the last week, almost under the radar, and just casually up 13% today so far. Steady buying suggests to me some insider knowledge. Would love to see a bid around 20p which feels about right at the moment for this company.
For what most will perceive as a redundant AGM (insofar as we learnt very little), the net inflows have been decent and SP is up WoW. Worth flagging that big buy yesterday. No smoke without fire- either people are believing the ship has been turned, which didn’t seem the case to me in terms of all the cost cutting measures have not yet materially cut net debt OR there is positive movement on the takeover front. I believe the latter. By remaining in takeover period the LT are unable to buy shares at a basement price. And we know Mr Oliver has the £££ after him and Mr Gleeson got a £22M payout from the IPO. By staying in takeover period it has also been keeping SP depressed which obviously affects liquidity when they have debt and tight covenants. JMO but knowing the business as I do I can’t see them being in takeover period without a realistic chance of it landing. Soon!
Started: diamondguru, 22 May 2024 07:43
Last post: Kellysheroes, 23 May 2024 15:46
This statement from the AGM Statement keeps coming to mind.
"The Company recently introduced the strategy of unlocking a 'world of inventory' from people's homes and is expected to launch certain new product categories shortly. "
I just hope we don't see some "wild" idea that they can somehow become experts at being a Trade In site for anything and everything....Stick to what you know and have some expertise in, would be my advice, just do it better and then sell it out for real cash in short order.
if they sold decluttr, what would it be worth? ai indicates it generated 29 mil in sales in it's last report.
assuming an ebitda of 5% and a very prudent multiple of 3, that provides a value of circa 4-5million.
i know there's more than one way to skin a cat, but that doesn't seem too bad for a company with the mcap of mmag... if it's an american company that were to buy it, surely they may even pay a higher valuation than my *** packet calc above?
That's a whopper (450k)
The problem is they have not eaten at some of the net debt Hedge. That needed to be a priority to increase perceived value here. So for me it's a reduction in holding with a target to buy again at sub 5.50. I still think they are far from failure but on the flipside what they are trying to do in terms of shoring things up is a bit lame.
I think they should have shut/sold the US op entirely.
I disagree, management made some great decisions for their personal bank accounts by getting a merchant bank to over inflate the IPO valuation and mug a load of gullible private investors. Welcome to the unregulated UK stock exchange, I feel sorry for you LTH's. JMO Adyor!
Last post: HedgeHogarth, 23 May 2024 12:45
Some you win some you lose.
Good luck Josey - you are one of the good ones on here.
I’m sure there are more twists and turns to come
Nice to see some more volume in recent days.
The markets on your side Hedge. Did not see it myself so that reduction will cost me a few K. I guess neutral news and no profit warning was good enough for people to re-invest or climb onboard.
Granted prior to the start of the Ukraine issues and kamikaze kwasi's budget!
It's ancient history now - move on
Robswire - you have been coming on here for months and saying the banks will call in the loan imminently. They have not and will as the company have proved they can manage to the covenants
The RCF has to have been granted on the basis of EBITDA forecasts of over £12m pa based on the 2.5x covenant
(Mag)pie in the sky numbers
Started: HedgeHogarth, 22 May 2024 20:21
Last post: MrMagorium, 23 May 2024 07:35
Mr Magorium
The rate is detailed in a number of the RNS if you look back in history - it is anchored to Sonia + 1.95% to 2.5%
Robswire is a Banker type - his glass is half empty
Magpie's challenges
- Magpie took on debt to fund it's rental proposition which requires significant working capital tied up for 12 months
- This is provided by Natwest/HSBC with a RCF of up to £30m. MMAG have drawndown about half of the facility.
- Interest rates increased after taking the facility - increasing the cost of finance
- The bad debt on the Rental prop was probably worse than hoped (mostly due to macro conditions)
- The RCF has two covenants - both linked to EBITDA. Bet Debt has to be less than 2.5 times EBITDA and Interest payments need to be less than 4 times EBITDA
- This has manifested in tow challenges for MMAG;
(1) Needs to improve EBITDA (This weeks's RNS suggests they are very focussed on this)
(2) Needed to manage its net debt and drawdown to stay compliant with covenants
However the company have already shown they are able to flex and pivot to stay compliant with covenants and therfore I am 100% confident that they will not fall foul of the banks;
They have pivoted on Rental; it was a very popular with customers (based on iniitial sales numbers). Howvere, they only sell Rental to the very best quality customers from a Credit and Risk perspective. This has avoided increasing net debt and will improve the profitability of the proposition.
The rental Prop and Kiosks are not bad ideas - but both have put pressure on company at a time when the macro conditions worsened; higher interest rates, tougher consumer environment + tougher for small businesses to raise capital
The worst is behind Music Magpie now IMO; it has shown resilience and navigated one of the toughest period for small businesses in my lifetime.
The SP is valuation of a business expected to fail - If like me, you think it will NOT fail and that better times are ahead, the share price is a bargain
The specific interest rate on Music Magpie’s debt is not detailed, however, financial expenses for the year ending 30 Nov 2023 were reported at £1.9 million, which would include interest payments on debt...
Unlevered Operational Cashflow was circ 8.1 million, period ending 30 Nov 23.
What gives you reason to think the HSBC/Natwest are concerned in relation to the RCF Robswire?
Robswire, what is the point in posting non factual negative comments? If you this is share is toast why not just leave it and find a better investment opportunity? It is genuinely a waste of time for you
The glass is less than half empty
The hedge is full of thorns
The bankers can’t be happy
Some shares hoovered up today at what may prove to be an excellent price.....
Nice to hear that Rental income is up YOY - with net debt stable - and a higher quality rental base which means the debt is better covered
Started: downbutnotout, 22 May 2024 09:08
Last post: downbutnotout, 22 May 2024 09:08
I like this bit "Market purchases" 99.77% votes for.
Started: Redh3rring, 22 May 2024 07:05
Last post: downbutnotout, 22 May 2024 07:41
They describe it as "a world of inventory". more like a "world of tat". but what tat?
No detail about what these other second hand items they will source is. any ideas what they could be?
Foot-can-road.
Well that update is a load of BS really. Not bust, not sold…so hold?
Anyone know if it’s possible to watch the Agm online & how to get the link please?
Started: Redh3rring, 17 May 2024 08:52
Last post: joseywales, 21 May 2024 18:29
I think it's just people taking a punt on news. Only about £150-200k's worth of shares so nothing massive in the great scheme of things. I feel we have to wait for a proper update for H1 numbers. Would be nice to see this back over 10p again.
...there's no smoke without fire....
Nice to see a bit of positive momentum in the share price....volume are relatively high with shares changing hands and an increasingly higher pricepoint over 2-3 sessions
Good to luck to holders
Long, long, long way to go...
I'm guessing today's buying is in anticipation of that update with a 'sell on news' strategy. Today's movement nice to see regardless.
Trading update typically 2nd week of June so only 3 weeks away.
Started: moniman, 19 May 2024 19:44
Last post: joseywales, 21 May 2024 09:21
It's certainly interesting the demise of the exchange. I see it as an opportunity really as you will find companies which possibly treble their MCAP in short periods of time.
I no longer have UK only funds in amongst my managed funds investments ... I can't say they performed brilliantly before Brexit, but since Brexit, they've grossly underperformed everything else. It's that simple really.
It is all cyclical IMO - in time the story will flip
The stocks will be deemed overvalued and expensive at some point and investors will flock elsewhere
@Saab93se business booming on eBay compared to previous years?
Feedback is up 6.7% on the year.
I’m one of 323,000 followers of the MusicMagpie Shop on ebay. They’re eBay’s biggest seller and a quick look at completed listings shows business has been booming. Aside from the dirt cheap valuation, that’s my incentive for buying.
Whether there’s manipulation or not, there’s still someone on the other side of the trade selling at these levels and this has been the case for months.
It’s not insiders and it doesn’t appear to be anymore institutional selling, yet others are still deciding to offload. I definitely wouldn’t sell, but what’s the buying incentive with no news?
Voting has to be done by tomorrow. Don’t like dis application of pre-emption rights but aside from that very dull and usual.
Have I missed something, where's the proxy form to vote?
Nope, not talking about shorting, more about accumulation. I don't for one second think you short or invest anyway.
So 🫢 if I want to short MMAG I need to first manipulate the price up by buying a load of shares? Which I later dump at a loss
Wish me luck 🙏🏻
404x - could not disagree more
I have seen plenty of manipulation of a share price going up
You are either being naive, stupid or disingenuous - if you think share prices are not manipulated
If you were about to make an offer for all the shared capital in a company - you would want a lower share price
If you wanted to short a share price you would want a high share price
the list is endless and there are many partites who have the tools to influence / manipulate
Yawn....
Whoops sorry, that was in response to another tedious post from Robswire obsessed with capex.
Mayve Robswire should think about what the cost would be to set-up a company in tis space that can deliver the EBITDA that MMAG do and compare that to the current valuation
Started: Swanley, 14 May 2024 09:51
Last post: Swanley, 14 May 2024 10:47
That's how I like my investments...
The Buckaroo mule should be MMAG's new logo.
Its like Buckaroo game. never know which way it'll turn
https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/166725355778
1 share purchased at 5.5p followed by 3 sells of 3 shares each at 4.5p brought the share price down by 9%. Can't make this stuff up.
Started: diamondguru, 10 May 2024 09:35
Last post: HedgeHogarth, 14 May 2024 08:52
Robwire - when you successfully build a £200m business perhaps you will earn the right to be critical. Easy to commentate with hindsight.
£780k turned into £202k at today’s SP
At least they know how Hedge feels, catching a falling sword
The history on LSE confirms my hypothesis
Very sad and disingenuous to suggest that the BOD were wasting theor money when buying shares.
The problem is that the BOD have wasted their wages on share purchases historically. Mind you they weren’t daft when they cashed in at 193p IPO. It’s the staff who bought into the BS that I feel sorry for
Started: Vardey, 8 May 2024 08:40
Last post: downbutnotout, 8 May 2024 16:28
More buys than sells today. technically oversold.
Personally I think they played a fair game. Imagine it was some mid management level chat in BT that got quickly kicked aside. Made no sense.
In terms of trouble in this 'takeover period' that's a whole other issue and would say inexperience is the factor not negligence. Just have to hope the distraction has not impacted the business too severely and that management have stayed on the ball in terms of the day to day and not the pie in the sky!
Could the leadership team be in some hot water at some point? SP has dropped roughly 70%+ since the sale news was ‘leaked’, then inexplicably 2 ‘interested buyers’ were named, both of whom denied interest within days causing the stock to tank
Talk about putting the business in a position of weakness, with no public statement on the sale since. It’s difficult to imagine a worse run sale process or strategy for protecting shareholder interests
I don’t pretend to know the answers, but it’s all very strange
Started: Cobblerman, 7 May 2024 19:52
Last post: Cobblerman, 7 May 2024 19:52
Can't understand the SP being where it is after all the money I've spent with MMAG! Books, CDs....
I took a small punt in this when I first saw Damian Hanson had taken a position.
It looked interesting enough to risk a small amount in the hope that something might happen.
Looks like even with Hanson increasing, the price has dropped so far back that I'll be unlikely to get anything back.
My holding is small enough I can risk losing the lot. I'm treating it like an option now.
The lowball offer on the table sounds feasible, maybe it's Hanson.
I could see the business being split up into media & tech.
I think Vardey hit the nail on the head. Ex-Owner driven emotional attachment to the business and losing the sight that since Covid, it's been a case of a death by 1000 cuts. The swings at ATM and rental have cost the business significantly and eroded it's value. Maybe there is something afoot to review the trajectory YTD but we are in the soft side of the year. Also, if there was any conversations happening there would have been leaks by now. So if they can't sell it ... what will they do is the question.
Agree with your points Josey- why do you think they are staying in offer period? What possible reason could the LT (guided by Shore )have to remain in what most on here believe to be an implausible stasis? Which they know is the main reason for the collapse in confidence? I don’t buy incompetent leadership as a reason. Unless there is a lowball offer on the table which they are waiting for a positive quarter of trading to help bump the offer up? Puzzling times!
Well, net assets were 12m and intangible made up 12m. So if you have faith in the realisable value of intangible then it's crazy. Otherwise assets and liability are a wash.
So long as they've cut cost, focussed on cash generation and maybe some more margin in the US ... it should not be so bad. This nonsense in terms of staying in the 'takeover period' is a joke though.
You'd hope for some update at the AGM or at least some tougher questions which the board cannot hide from.
It’s crazy! mCap is less than the value of the inventory held end FY23-24 (£7.4M). Will the AGM stop the sp decline?
Started: Vardey, 7 May 2024 12:23
Last post: jlovie, 7 May 2024 12:46
And £13.1m debt and showed a £6.8m loss in last results.
That's why the share price is where it is.
For a true net assets figure you need to exclude intangibles including capitalised development. Do that and you'll see this actually has a negative tangible net asset value.
There's not been any recent notifications of any sales by significant holders - only the recent advisal that someone had increased their stake
Net assets of 12m and market cap of 6m is wild.
My guess is that there’s significant pressure from institutional investors to sell. However, there’s a misalignment between what the ownership believes the business is worth, and what any potential buyer is willing to pay. Something has to give
Started: dhton, 24 Apr 2024 16:16
Last post: joseywales, 25 Apr 2024 16:34
I would not say I'm cheerleading this one. I've offered reasonably balanced opinion in my posts but yes, for me its a buy. Biggest risk is de-listing but I can't see where the 75% would come from. For you its .... well nothing because you are not invested and you're not short. Hmmm. You only post on MMAG so do you actually invest al all?
You're right, no-one officially gets fired from any business any more. We use settlement agreements.
Because I'm interested in what happes next, that is why. I am sure you're the same. As I posted yesterday anything other than cheerleading is immediately shot down. I guess emotions are running high if you have backed a lame horse.
I am unclear how you have made the leap from my referencing of recent analysis shared into the business to me being fired but you are very wrong! I don't think anybody has ever been fired! People have grown bored and left or been promoted into new roles elsewhere and there has been redundancies over the last 12m but I didn't ever see anyone get fired.
Why don't you sell up then? Clearly not for your appetite to hang around here?
Nothing you say is factually incorrect ... although reference to 'the team' might make one think you got fired from the company.
I thought the results was going to bring an increase and brighter days? It has been gone a month now and still the price collapses.....
Through whichever lens you look this is not a positive story.
Past month - down 10%
Past 6m - down 70%
Past 12m - down 78%
Since Apr 21 - down 96%
I have no doubt I will be dismissed as a troll or naysayer but the above are all hard facts. I am often asked to be positive with my posts on this forum but I see little to cheer.
Rudderless leadership, stagnant at best performance, a failed rental experiment - nothing wrong with that, it was a brave punt that has not paid off.
Customers are holding on to devices much longer now, recent research shared with the team has proven this and strikes to the heart of the core business. The 24m cycle of upgrading no longer exists! No upgrades, means no phones to buy, means no sales!
How long will the (invested) cheerleaders persist with trying to kid others boom times are around the corner???