Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
They know how ALSA performs as they have executive in there. They may not have so much exposure to the details of the other territories.
Also, the increase could well have been about ensuring they have an ability not to have the company taken from under them. Very hard for 75% support without them!
As a shareholder they are not there to behave in other shareholders' interests. If they don't like a bid, they can vote against it, simple as that. That alone could detract certain funds from investing.
I'm beginning to wonder how much / little Cosmens actually does know.
Why would you buy 10s of millions of shares in the 70/80s either side of Xmas if you had half an idea what was coming and you could buy them considerably cheaper?
Not sure I get that.
The transport group however made a group pre-tax loss of £98.3 million and a group operating loss of £21.4 million for the year ending 31 December 2023, impacted by £30 million restructuring costs and a £99 million charge to the German rail onerous contract provision.
If I'm reading this right will they have made a pre tax profit if it wasn't for the German provision? I'm sure I read somewhere that they were going to spread the German provision cost of 99m over a few years?
JG, you are right, you cannot use the platform average. It's as ianfm says, but you can really over complicate it.
I'm looking at overall portfolio value not by ticker. Switching £12K across to FCH and adding to that holding just made more sense to me for the minute.
Now if I had a lot of cash in my portfolios I would not have sold since 54 must be close to bottom. I just think the short profile is going to keep it within a tight low range until the half years. Purely my opinion, but sticking this out since March 2023 was a mistake for me.
I'd also say that doing it this way means you never really get out at the top unless you view it as a dividend income hold.
Depends on how it is being tracked.
if you have 10k at 100, and bought 5k at 54, that will of course reduce your overall avg, then if you sold the 5k at 65, and banked profit, it would return the 10k avg to 100.
if you track it properly then you can bank profit with quick trades, as long as you keep an eye on your overall avg and adjust it with buys/sells. if you dont, then yeah, you'll just end up losing money.
JW
Out of interest.
When you say you sold some you bought at 54 but still have a fair holding.
Does that mean for example you have a holding that is in the red, added some at 54 but was still in the red, and then sold those ones from the same holding?
Reason I ask is because whenever I do that, it reduces what it says my overall loss is, because it is thinking that I have sold those recent buys at a loss, even though say I sold them for more than what I paid.
It's confusing, similarly with AJB if I sell and buy back within 30 days, sometimes the system says my purchase price is what I sold them for ( 30 day rule) which is annoying because it's up to me to do my accounts for tax purposes!!!
JW, Yes they can block any other bidder but that doesn't stop other parties being interested in acquiring it & they are expected to act in the interests of the stakeholders!
Let's face it this is not about to have a big bounce anytime soon. I sold what I bought at 54p before close of play. There's simply others out there I expect to turn sooner and maybe I end up buying back in here in the 60s or in the low 50s. I still have plenty of holding that if by any event this took off, I'll still be smiling.
Paddyboy is right, only a Cosmen scenario changes things imminently and they can be the only buyer since they can block any other bidder. If they are after it, I'm sure they will have already floated a 120/130 type deal into current iis and got rebuffed. There is risk here ... you have one cash cow keeping the company afloat and if ALSA faces any challenges in the next 6 months, it quickly becomes a house of cards. Similarly if USA recovery stalls or becomes non-apparent.
Also, once the trading volume calms down, you will have the short algos running this for a while.
I think what a lot of PIs fail to grasp is that when SPs drop this low it isn't necessarily because the company is about to go bust or is in extreme distress or anything like that. It is because there is at present little or no reason to buy this .I am not referring here to us on this bb. We are minnows in a huge ocean & very few PIs have the financial clout to affect the SP on a large company's share. It is the large IIs; pension funds; asset management cos etc. These II investors have a completely different mindset to the small investor. They have no interest in 'catching the bottom!' They don't care about the bottom they care about the top. There is no reason for IIs to buy this atm. No dividend; dropped from FT250; loss making etc! Barring any T/O approach any future significant rises will need news which brings the funds back in here. Rolls Royce bumbled for best part of 3 years under £1 with a couple of spikes for similar reasons. the impetus the market got with that was the new CEO arrival &his bigger plan. The funds have driven that one right back up again. In the short term we have a new CFO coming. That could be a catalyst. Interest rates coming down etc etc. The point is when the funds are comfortable that the management can deliver what they say this will begin to rerate. All IMO.
I knew Paddy was short on this! He flip flops between long and short and posts with a negative/positive slant depending which side his breads buttered.
Anyone think that this afternoon was a mini short pump to sell a load in the closing auction, if that makes sense?
I hope i'm wrong btw & this is nicely back in the 60s by Friday close but be under no illusions that this can still go lower than 53. No guarantees in this game i'm afraid!
Smokey, looking at the MC is always a dangerous thing. It is pretty irrelevant in terms of where the SP wil go to. Of course £300 odd mill is a silly number for this but it just doesn't matter. You have 3 active short positions in here this could go lower than 53 yes. It could go quite a bit lower. I don't see it as a worry. I've seen some mad short selling behaviour on shares but true value always ultimately comes out. It presents a great buying opportunity sometimes but the opportunity is always cloaked with the fear that the drops will never stop. They always stop at some point & usually reverse very sharply in the event of positive news!
Smokeytime
I know one thing this result gave me a lot of confidence and TBH I was expecting 15-20% rise on that day. However I did not mind the new low. 185-205 EBIT if achieved and keep in mind inflation is on the downside. Margin rise/ NA sale/ cosmen buyout any of these will push the price into 120-150 region quickly. Otherwise at the end of 24 which is now 8 month away if guaidance remain the same we will be in the region of £1 to 1.10. If not another year around 60 -80.
A lot of positive comments on here today which is good to see. Just been looking at the accounts and the bad costing and losses are mostly IMO to the management.
Was 53 the lowest ? We know this is ridiculously priced now but whats everyone's view on the minimum market cap this could drop to ???? if opinion based on any fundamentals that would be appreciated too. Thanks
Wow looks like a blue finish, so does that mean 58-60p on Thursday.
End of the day wealthtransfer, if you don't need the money, SP will be considerably higher than this in years time, subject to guidance being met and things progress as they set out on Monday.
Alternatively there are external factors that could impact a lot quicker, as you say inflation / rate cuts, NA sale, Cosmens / other party buyout.
Not going to bang on about, but surprised after this latest setback that a new CEO is not also forthcoming. A lot of this started before Stamp was appointed.
We'll be OK eventually.
JG - Quite agree. Hope that happens too now and will accept that’s going to be at a much lower price expectation than I had previously.
Or Cosmens calls time and just puts us out of our misery, takes it out, sells off the US, UK and Germany and moves forward with Alsa.
How else could he regain control of Alsa without it costing him a lot more in 12-18 months?
If that's his ultimate goal.
I’ve read and reread the report and there is more detailed info in it than usual. Almost as if they have decided to finally come clean.
New to me was the US and uk not returning to profit until 25 too. That is a bit of an eye opener.
This year is effectively a stand still year at best. There are lots of small hits to come for various things in the report eg fuel, subsidies, etc etc. So on their guidance of around £200m adjusted then Statutory will likely be around break-even taking account of the £85m interest due.
2025 should start to show a profit if all things stay fairly stable. If not then all bets off.
This won’t recover now until and unless US school bus sells or there is a return to a low inflation, low margin macro environment where these businesses are more successful.
I will catch up in July but for now I’m resigned to this going nowhere, so no point wasting time looking at it each day.
I think the board have been less than honest/clear in what they knew was coming. I definitely don’t trust them and am being much more cautious with this stock.
I have quiclky glanced at the trades today looking for the big purchase that had caused the buys to be over one million but I only see continual hourly buys which I find reassuring at the moment we have buys 1061,000 sales 432, 000 - away for the day
a stake holding announcement would be nice
Which is most of us JC!
My averages are now 85 and 71, but have massed a large amount of shares to get there.
Similar to you at ITV Carrington.
Eventually management will get this right, but until HY and the q3 TU, I'm taking guidance as not set in stone given the last 6 months.
Long term hold for me now until 25 at least.
Someone is not done buying this yet so expect to stay around this level for longer.
At some point a TR1 will come out however they will release that as late as possible.
Yes I think for many of us that have just bought in at the 53p+ mark there is very little down side so adding a few more around this price is going to be a winner in a few weeks / months. sorry for all / any that got it £1 + .
@the accountant How do you keep track/factor in the loss you've crystallised already? 61p is your average now, but doesn't include prior losses