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I think it depends on what happens next. 2 obvious scenarios spring to mind.
1. Platinum (if still interested) will have put in a fresh revised offer in over the weekend. Or will do at some point in the foreseeable.
2. They'll have decided not to proceed, & walk away.
Hard to know which way they'll jump until we see what we see. Either way, we all know the outcome of the sp either way. Too close to call at the moment.
Lower?! It’s turned down an offer of 105p
Only way is up from here
Will this fall lower short term? Hoping to top up at 75p if I can
No suggestion at all that Platinum knew any more about the details than we did.
They did however know it was likely to happen when they made their offers, so initially it did not deter them.
If they come back with with a new offer that is recommended by the board it will no doubt be subject to due dililigence, at which point they will see the details.
I think any offer will have to get the boards recommendation to succeed, Private Equity very rarely ger involved in hostile bids.
Best Wishes.
Mardler you believe in early December when Platinum made 2 undisclosed offers they were privy to negotiations taking place between Marstons and Brains? If that is correct Shareholders and possibly the Regulator need to be advised. Shareholders were not advised of the Brain's deal until 23rd December and mention of the Platinum offers were not discovered until the end of January.
If Platinum increase their offer as suggested the likely-hood of the BOD recommending acceptance is remote., they are interested in Assets not management agreements, RF knows this all too well.
Dividends were good as is the discount card which was being reviewed 18 months ago.
Platinum would have been aware of and known of the Brains deal.
I feel it will make no difference to their intentions or. the price they are willing to go to.
Agree that the board would be willing to recommend a deal if the price is right, personally think this has to be at least 120p.
This has Been a long term hold for me, the dividends have been great and have made good use of the discount card.
Will be sad if it does happen but money talks
I’ve just done a fill or kill order for a third of my shares for Monday morning with a limit of 95p. Let’s see if I get lucky!
Barchid, completely agree statements after close of play on a Friday are made for a reason when the market has NO chance to react. I add the shortness (2 lines) tells me the news was rushed. Apart from timing and length of the RNS just consider the original RNS (23 December) which stated, " It is anticipated that the transaction will complete in February 2021 and a more detailed presentation of the transaction will be set out on the completion date"
If the RNS was not rushed, where is the detailed presentation? An Agreement of such importance would surely have completed details in good time.
The haste and timing of last night's announcement, adds weight to the view not only were Brain's becoming nervious but RF has no intention to consider a Bid. Until we see the terms of the Agreement with Brains, there is no knowing how tied Marstons are to the Wales estate. It is speculation until those details are fully known, but imo the deal with Brain's has been hastily completed to not only satisfy them but also to signal a Red Flag to any Bidder, "WE ARE NOT FOR SALE"
As far as the BOD considering we are under-valued, that argument holds no water now as Platinum will (a) walk way, (b) see Marston do not wish to consider any offer/negotiation. Platinum are not interested in a bunch of Pubs which Marstons do not own.
Rooney Anand's intentions have been known for many weeks, so Old news . Hypothetically any interest Rooney would have in the Marston's estate will be limited considering the JV with Carlsberg. More likely Rooney will find better opportunities elswhere.
Those PI's who have bought in below 45p may regret not cashing in their chips this week.
I could be wrong but will be surprised if we are not headed back towards 70p.
AIMO
GLA.
Pmoran
I take all your points bar one, which is that Anand is surely interested in buying pubs not renting them, which is what we are doing with Brains?
Hence why I feel it muddies the water. Anyway, it looks to be a long & winding road but we all had the chance to jump ship this week which I guess makes us all LTH ?
Article in daily hate today suggests that Rooney Anand of greene king fame has backing of up to £500 million to go and buy u.k pubs. As has already been mentioned on here shares in other pubcos went up this week based in part on the possible ‘m and a frenzy’.
Even if the announcement of the brains deal being finalised or the contractual obligations within it that we have signed up to were to put platinum off it seems there might be others out there that view pubs to be cheap at the moment and the future to be bright.
The boards reaction to platinum felt to me like a ‘that’s undervaluing us’ rather than a ‘we are not for sale’. So who knows wether platinum will up their offer, whether someone else might be minded to get involved or if the board would even be amenable to a more realistic offer or if they genuinely believe they have the best plan to take the business and the share price relatively quickly to a place beyond what someone would offer today?
It will be interesting to see how it plays out but I was feeling confident about our future before any cheeky offer was tabled and if it goes away and the SP drops back I won’t be any less confident.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-9229383/MARKET-REPORT-Investors-toast-pub-restaurant-stocks.html I see from an article in the daily hate today that
It is an old market adage that an RNS after hours on a Friday is very rarely good news and I fear this one falls firmly into that category.
I can see no reason to tie up all the details with Brains when there is a potential offer on the table, this only muddies the water and imho is not in the shareholders best interests.
*Friday
Off to Costa because I need my coffee.
Good morning all,
This is slightly off topic and not important but in the last RNS on Monday there is a disclosure submitted by Richard Nead stating a shareholding of 2.74% owned by Janette Nead which would total circa £18m. The number of shares is stated as 2,053 does not reconcile to the percentage holding.
I thought it was unusual to have an individual on these disclose forms, so I searched Companies House, and they are owners of a company called Sladehome Ltd whose principal activity is that of sharedealing with an annual turnover of £2k.
They've obviously made a mistake but it's comforting to know that there is a person, somewhere in the world, called Janette Nead who holds £2k and every little helps if Platinum go hostile.
Have a nice weekend everyone.
I've got a couple of working theories going on at the moment. They are only theories of course.
Had the Brain's announcement not come through today (close to or after hours) I'd have said that it would have been possible that Platinum could well have put a firm o r improved offer in, and an announcement made to the markets made on Monday.
If Fairdealer is correct, RF could have put this announcement in to deter them from progressing with any offer. This would then cause a retrace in the sp.
We'll see what happens.
Londoner, IMO yes it will deter a bidder. The Brains estate has no asset value to Marstons and importantly PI's do not know what binding conditions are within the Agreement. As stated recently, one does not know what RF's game is.
Apart from market sentiment today within the sector. Whitbreads up over 3.5% and MAB up almost 9%. it will be surprising if we do not see the SP retracing on Monday.
Have a feeling the Deal completion with Brain's has been brought forward, maybe wrong but had thought it was mid-month. It could be a deliberate block on any further offer from Platinum.
Hope Ralph knows what he is doing.
Good evening all,
Is the timing of the Brains transaction, after hours, significant?
Could it in anyway deter a potential bidder?
Thanks
Happy day today, this is my first post and after nearly a year we hit the £1 of which I was after best buy I have ever done and now £10000 in the bank from a £3000 investment.
:)
agurney - at no point did I say the discount included drinks? I said in the first paragaph that I enjoy their pubs and food as justifications to why I'm invested and want to hold long term, but I didn't say what the discounts included. I merely said the 20% was a great incentive. Unless you're referring to my remark about the drinks being on me, I can see how you'd get that impression.
Knowing it's being discontinued, I'll sit tight and see what they replace the scheme with if at all. I hope they do! Regardless, I'm holding long term!
I believe that it is being replaced with a more modern scheme, not discontinued per se. After all, it doubles up as the staff discount card too.
Ben
If that is the case, then the extra non discount spend that we make could go into our dividend pot.
Marstons are discontinuing the privilege card. They will honour it for another year but will end in 2022. I'm gutted.
Stowthorns, looks like that's not the only thing you misread - the discount's on food & accommodation, not booze.
some shares purchased at very low levels.
Still retain a large holding for the longer term
Perhaps I misread, thanks for correcting me. Looks like I'm off to apply for it! Beers/largers/ciders on me haha
Stowthorns, You can apply for the privilege card at any time as long as you can prove you hold 500 or more shares.