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What it means is that they will slow down or stop buying more. The current MARL SP has no effect on the profitability of what they have already done. I suppose that if that trend were to continue, they would start selling MARL again. However, that surely won't happen. A premium in the value of MARL over the value of the offer can only be a very short-lived thing...
With the final MARL trade today at 102.63p (spread 98-100p), and current SAND having dropped to US$ 3.64 (gold price?), the merger offer corresponds to 102.26p, meaning that MARL has just closed at a premium to the offer price (0.4%) for the first time. Not sure what this means for the arbitragers... Cordially Lionel
Voting No with my 350k of shares.
@n3m3sis187 - much as I would like that to be true, I think you only have to look at their website to see that making a counter-bid is not even close to their MO. What we originally thought they were doing is surely exactly what they are doing: MMCAP Fund Inc (‘the Fund’) seeks to exploit market inefficiencies to achieve high risk-adjusted returns for investors. The Fund’s primary focus is on merger arbitrage, private placements and other event driven special situations that provide superior risk-adjusted returns. The Fund managers use market neutral hedging strategies to ensure little exposure to market movements, resulting in absolute returns that are independent of the direction of the market. The Fund targets less followed transactions that are not widely covered in the media media or by other hedge funds. The investment team employs a strict risk management policy and the portfolio is constantly monitored to ensure concentration, deal downside and leverage do not exceed the Fund’s parameters.
MMCAP can buy half a million shares at 1.08GBP which don't show up as a trade (how long can visibility be deferred for?) and then London South East takes off the RNS showing the trade.. ffs if it wasn't a joke I would say this sort of behaviour comes close to the 'reportable' wire...
@n3m3sis187: can you say more? I appreciate that this is just some hunch, but when do you think such a counter-bid would come? Must it come before the vote? I was leaving it until Monday to register my vote, but still not clear how to play it. Any thoughts? Cordially Lionel
Excellent - loving the intrigue!
I am wondering if a consortium is being put together to counter-bid the Sandstorm offer... it ha been in my mind for awhile now. I still believe there is going be a twist in this tail which is why I am holding onto my shares.
And there it is, thanks n3... any theories?
MMCAP International Latest RNS TOTAL: Shares = 14,688,063 Total Percentage 11.24% http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/other/13255798.html
Haha very odd! A Freudian typo slip perhaps!
it showed as an RNS and then disappeared
Its only just come through by email - not showing here as an RNS yet. Class of relevant security Purchase/sale Number of securities Price per unit ORD GBP.01 Purchase 200 1.7500 CAD ORD GBP.01 Purchase 2,600 1.7600 CAD ORD GBP.01 Purchase 500,000 1.08 GBP
Now you see it ! ?
..has MMCAP also purchasing 500k shares at 1.08 GBP Whats that all about?
Well well ... looks like I have to 'register' with my Broker (Halifax) to be able to vote (that's a bit crap). As I hadn't done so before, then they are going to have to er.. pass on my verbal voting intentions.. (wtf..) Anyway I had it in my mind that this was a 'Mandatory' Corporate Action with no voting recourse. I recant the earlier rubbish I spouted and meekly apologise.. hope we're all good!
you need to contact your proxy holder via their secure site and instruct them how to vote on your behalf
To vote, you need to be holding shares at 5.00 p.m. on 14 June 2017. You may have "already voted" with your broker, but this would only be activated at that time, based on the shares you're holding then. For anyone who wants to vote NO, and believes that NO will prevail, it would seem that their logical course of action is to sell during the short window of opportunity between 14th and the EGM on the 16th - then buy back after the SP falls significantly, which it surely would on a NO vote. This made me wonder if we'd see a sudden SP dip then, but I think that in practice they would simply continue to be hoovered by the Arbs. This is just my understanding, and I'd appreciate anyone corroborating. Personally, I'm voting YES, and my guess is that YES will prevail - but after yesterday, who knows?! ATB
Hi fulmar - would someone tell me where my proxy forms are then? I should have had them by now and I know I'm not alone in this.
Spud,EVERY shareholder can vote
Blimey bounce99 - you almost went off topic on number 3.. almost haha :). Welcome to the board by the way ;) Personally I believe this is a done deal, with the Arbitragers making the most of the reluctance of the markets to pay a sensible price for these shares. The likes of you and me won't be getting a vote - I don't know where the demarcation line actually is for who can and who can't vote however. The Arbs (YES) now hold around 25% with the BOD (YES) holding at least 1.85%, Sandstorm (YES) at least 6.72%. Other large investors inc Sprott (Probably YES in absence of another bid) holding over 16%... I think they have at least a 50% YES vote with the remaining large holders having had a phone call to ascertain whether the remaining 25% is a certainty or not...
Your argument would be bang on,had the purchase price been at all fair .£200m is massively under value as it stands,and gives absolutely no thought to the forthcoming news/results which will (if the sale goes through)further lift the SSL price but nowhere near the multiples that it would do to Marl alone Thanks for the Nevsun tip/they are now on my radar
I will lay out my case why i think it is not rational to vote No. 1. We only have a minority stake and turkey is not very attrative as a buyout target destination at the moment, so it could be a long time before we get another offer. 2. In case the Vote is no i guess we will go down to 1-1,2 then. 3. My third point is most important: You can take your Mariana win and invest it in another similar quality asset: For that i suggest Nevsun Resources. Their Timok project is top notch and is of similar quality as Hot Maden and has a very similar NPV (both have Peas out). You currently pay 47% of the HOt Maden NPV if you calculate the Mariana market cap with Sandstorm at 3,8 USD in case the takeover goes ahead. If you buy Nevsun you pay 53% but you get much more. They have 200 mio usd in cash and 46% of Timok lower zone (jv with freeport which could be a big block cave mine in the future). They also have 60% of the Bisha mine in Eritrea. (they have some problems with seperating a cu concentrate from the zinc concentrate if i am not mistaken). My suspicion is that Lundin Mining (they have over 1 billion cash and a rich curreny (high share price)) could make another run at Timok with a Nevsun buyout offer and sell the Bisah mine to the chinese or similar. I made some assumptions for a takeout scenario for both Mariana and Nevsun: Both assets get a takeout price of 80% npv + cash on hand - debt. Then i assume that the Eritrea operation can be sold for 150 mio usd. In case of Mariana i valued their other portfolio with 15 mio. In that scenario you would make 98% if you buy Nevsun from here, but only 80% with Mariana at current prices. But with Mariana you have much more risk in my opinion. I would have preffered a full value takeout like all of you but honestly the deal is not bad. You get a Sandstorm shares wich have gone under pressure because of the takeover and also the GDXJ rebalancing, the pressure should be off soon. They have transformed into a serious company over the years and are also fundamentaly sound and undervalued. Why not take the money and invest in another undervalued high quality opportunity like Nevsun considering that the downside of a No vote could be something like 40%? With Nevsun you get more payout and a better risk profile from current prices. I will repeat: A NO vote is not a logical decision in my opinion. Any input welcome cheers
As of 08/05/2017 MMCAP International inc holding is 14,185,263 shares which is 10.85% http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/summary/company-summary/GG00BD3GC324GBGBXAIM.html
So what happens if the vote goes through and what happens if the vote isn't passed