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Everyday the price is dripping down 5 percent for the last few days. People are trading this to buy in cheaper, £1.03 is my target to get back in after selling at £1.20 Friday. No harm in making use of every trading opportunity. Now Britishbulls.com is flagging it as a sell and they have called it right last few times check it out. Chart is not looking good at all.
Hinkley, back in late April you were complaining about how big the targeted raise was going to be and now you're complaining that it is not big enough. I do wonder what your motivation is in posting here. Your surprise at normal costs makes me feel you're not as informed as you'd like us to believe or that you are informed but have some motivation to spread FUD.
What is clear is that the raise is sufficient to make the debt levels sustainable over at least the next few years. Given they were targeting between 190m and 240m we can infer that lenders had agreed to continue supporting them at the lower end of that scale. The fact the raise was oversubscribed and is raising 241m ( yes before the usual costs of such a raise) means they have an additional safety margin.
This is a recover / deep value stock and comes with they typical risk reward profile you'd expect for such a play.
Management have stated they are aiming to reach net cash in 2 to 3 years and have set clear financial targets.
The success of the raise has clear lifting many market participants worries and made the investment case seem safer.
If the company can achieve the targets its management are setting, then it appears there is still significant upside.
I am not conflating anything. The £350m Kier is raising is actually less than £320m net cash in the coffers. It leaves them in considerable debt.
Hinkley, it is a bit odd to conflate costs of the raise and KL disposal with liabilities being paid down from the proceedings.
Are you wallywoo on ADVFN?
You seem to have a similar writing style and the same interest in KIE and FRES.
£12.3m share underwriting costs, £10m costs associated with sale of KL, £10m pension costs being paid from sale of KL, £0.7m pension costs being paid from fundraising.
Those are a lot of costs , £33m in total, not included anywhere at present.
Kier should have raised another £100m because they will still be in substantial debt after all this dilution and asset sales.
I expect very few shareholders will fail to take up their 7 for 8 but I will apply for 25% more which I don't expect to get. We will see. Interactive investor have yet to provide the Corporate Action for this. IG did already on Friday.
It is underwritten, but the share issue has been OVERSUBSCRIBED. The underwriters do not need to pick up any of the shares. Shareholders can buy 7 for 8 and apply for 'excess entitlement' which is equal to the 7. I'm not expecting to get any excess entitlement filled. All of the shares are spoken for, but as I understand it, shareholders get priority for their basic 7 for 8, and these are 'clawedback' from the placing. This is very different to Kier's last RI which took several weeks and the majority of the shares ended up with the underwriters. This cash raise was over in NINE HOURS (everyone is keen to get the shares).
The costs of the equity issue are circa £12m.
Didn't think it was being underwritten, that was the point, of how they've done the equity raise,
It will probably drift down after the excitement of the share issue has passed. That is a lot of new shares being issued and at a heavy underwriting cost.
This might be the new level, but not sure if it will race away, other well financed/funded profitable companies in this sector, are not setting the world alight, year end results will show more
Taking a different perspective, Kier looks like a big company: turnover £3.5bn, 13000 employees, number 1 or 2 in its markets, growing demand, institutional investor support. All except market capitalisation at a miserable £0.5bn (after re-capitalisation), and of course low margins. You might expect a company like this to be valued at one times turnover: £3.5bn, but realistically to get there would need margins to be in double digits, and that’s not going to happen any time soon.
Still, with debt sorted, recapitalisation sorted, and prospect of paying a dividend, surely £0.5bn is too low. Sentiment must finally have turned the corner. In the short term, with its prospects and progress a market cap of £1.0bn would be reasonable. Therefore in the next 12 months or so a share price of 200p looks very achievable. I guess.
First half profit came in at £9m but that was with the final restructuring costs. All of that is finished now. The final plank (sale of Kier Living and the equity raise) has now been implemented. The more interesting number will be the profit for the second half, due to end 30th June, in about 6 weeks time. That should be more normal. I'm expecting it to be about £40m, due to the reduced turnover and higher costs during this covid year. But as investors, we should look forward before the rest of the market gets there. Kier's estimate for profit next year is between £140m and almost £160m. That makes today's fwd price earnings look like about 3. The MFool writer reckons that a p/e of 10.5 is about right. That means today's fwd p/e of 3 is only a third of the 'right price'. I expect to see £3-£4 in the next six months. This is what Kier says in its initial notice on the cash raise:
Kier expects actions taken to right size the Group as part of the turnaround strategy will result in continued improved financial performance. The net proceeds from the Capital Raise will further strengthen the Group's balance sheet, building on the sale of Kier Living, and underpin Kier's medium-term value creation plan targets:
o Revenue: GBP4.0 - 4.5 billion
o Adjusted operating margin: c.3.5 per cent.
o Cash conversion of operating profit: c.90 per cent.
o Balance sheet: Sustainable net cash position with capacity to invest
o Dividend: Sustainable dividend policy with dividend cover of around three times earnings through the cycle
In other words, all the fat has been cut away and Kier is likely to outperform peers like Balfour and Morgan Sindall who are on much higher p/e ratios (about 20 or higher). If Kier get's rated better than Morgan Sindall and BBY, we could be looking at £6-£8. DYOR. GLA.
Half year results, December , i think stated profit at 9m
The Fool thinks that 120p is right. If you use a profit figure 3 times the size of the profit used by the Fool it is logical to expect a share price 3 times the current level. Ie c 350p.
It depends on a realistic level of profit -hence my question asking what is realistic.
The Fool thinks that 120p is right. If you use a profit figure 3 times the size of the profit used by the Fool it is logical to expect a share price 3 times the current level. Ie c 350p.
It depends on a realistic level of profit -hence my question asking what is realistic.
with your conclusion what do you think the share price will be then
I am slightly surprised by the Fool's conclusion. Its judgement is based on a net profit of £51 m for this year. I have seen other estimates of profit of £140m. Which would be more realistic?
I fully understand the differences between net profit , operating profit and EBITDA. I do not think that I am comparing apples with pears. Is £51 m a realistic assumption of profitability for this year and if not what would be?
Last year operating profit was £41m so the Fool's estimate may be closer to the mark. Would £140 million be more likely to be a forecast profit?
Ta Newbe.
Number of shares = total shares you hold Multiply by 7 then divide by 8, finally multiply it by 85p.
Example - i hold 1000 shares
Number of shares i am entitled => 1000*7/8 = 875
Money i need to keep in my account (somewhere mid-Jun) => 875*0.85 = 743.75£
Well done to the holders.
The Fool’s take on all of this-
https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2021/05/14/can-the-kier-share-price-continue-to-surge-higher/
Anyhow Does anyone know?
I’m still of a mind to add more to my portfolio. I use Barclays’ stock ISA and as a current shareholder, will I be offered shares and at what price? What is the timeline fir this and do I need to do anything at this stage? Any feedback would be gratefully appreciated.