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Barksy1
Further to my post, I thought I would let you know that the story of REM plc has come to an END with your good self in profit for the 1st time as with many others given they also bought at 0.9p or 1p. These are the REM^ers who went to the London REM party. I did NOT attend as I was part of an earlier REM group eg Isdeer, Pensionpot, Rose etc [few people]. It was only later that the bulk of people who bought in after the said party.
I tweeted on Twitter to David Lenigas and KDNC as I am sure they are NOT aware that the party attendants are in profit now. As you may be aware, Mr Lenigas said not too long ago something like he thinks the mkt cap will get back to the same level or to that effect. I did NOT attend the party of the London REM-KDNC AGM*s so I have less contact with KDNC.
As you are aware, everyone on REM used to tweet and follow Mr David Lenigas and even today, the #davidlenigas thread is very much active. I used to see Mr James there etc.
Once I have put it out there on Twitter with a positive note, I know that the truth is very liberating for those who have had to go through those lean years of the lithium bust which took down many lithium co*s like the Canadian Nemaksa which was bigger than any of the London listed co*s.
I am a study of co history and I been with REM since inception but NOT from day 1. I saw the forum active and decided to have a look.
Now, NO ONE can say that the co has not tried to stir the co to a much better place. I remember one blogger telling Ivy on EMH that KDNC would not be able to sell its shares on the open mkt but it was obvious to everyone that a small raise would not be too difficult. That in fact happened although the blogger thought it was the DEAD KNELL for the co.
Mr Lenigas has just tweeted that he has invested in Australian plays in Paterson. I dont have at this moment much interest in gold exploration co*s as the price has not lived up to expectations given the crypto mkt has taken some of the shine from the gold mkt. So, I do NOT follow Mr Lenigas very closely as my interest at the moment are NOT aligned to the same co*s otherwise it is always interesting to listen to what he has to say given he would know more about resources than most lay people.
So, a STATIC MOMENT for REM^ers and it now depends on what they want to do with their REM positions. I am currently reviewing my own position given the inflation situation has come into play and therefore I am at cross roads.
I take my leave and choose not to answer to questions that have been put to you, observer842, Ivybush etc as even the govt does not ask us our stock positions and the London South East has advised me before that there is NO need to disclose personal finances ie stocks.
The REM time has now passed. I have little interest as I said for iron ore - this is very dependant on demand from 1 user country especially given the news yesterday.
In my personal life, I do NOT experience the ty
News - can I ask - are you a shareholder in KDNC ?
---------------A NEW CHAPTER BEGINS FOR REM^ers----------------------
A symbolic start of the end of the lithium bear market and COINCIDES with a recovery in the resource sector. I note on Twitter, there is an absolute silence [no repeat of the past etc] on that thread and the reason as you said is, that is the "truth."
The chapter on REM is NOW closed with the recovery and IN profit situation. However, what happens AFTER this is ANOTHER NEW CHAPTER that will bear NO link to the past.
I hope Barksy1, you will keep abreast of what I said about the supply and demand market - today*s FT article is instructive. That is the rule of all resource markets.
With that, thank you for the hand of goodwill & everyone else of goodwill.
I am sure everyone understands what is the meaning of symbolic - you were the 1st to express it but I was already cognisant given the KDNC market cap currently as said.
News, Sat 15 May 2021.
Hello news, I don’t have a problem with that at all, it’s the truth..have a good evening
--------------------SEEKING ALPHA ON BACANORA LITHIUM, 10 May 2021-------------
I have just seen the above article on BCN forum with thanks and attribution.
"THE SONORA PROJECT, which is the world*s LARGEST LITHIUM RESOURCE, 8 . 8 T ON N E S OF L I T H I U M WITH AN NPV OF US$ 3 . 4 BILLION AND A 250 YR RESOURCE."
"With Bacanora themselves stating that Lithium demand will INCREASE 800% by 2030..."
"AN INCREDIBLY LOW SHARE PRICE LEAVES A COMPANY OPEN TO SUCH TAKEOVER OFFERS."
----------
Observation:
As I stated on this forum about the 8.8Mt of lithium with NPV of £3.4 BILLION - as said the NPV is more than just for Bacanora*s VENTANA owned 100% by them [88% mine feed] at some US$1.23bn. The bigger NPV is ON REM*S 30% JV AT MEXALIT [GREATER SONORA LANDS].
Oh, they do teach theory that a low share price = low mkt cap could mean a management buy-out or takeover. This Seeking Alpha writer uses NPV as a benchmark. He quotes that Lithium Americas and Piedmont trade on 70% to NPV.
So, we await to see what is next.
News, 14 May 2021.
I did NOT use your name Barksy1 as one is taught in school that permission must be asked first so I used one REM^er. It is also good to thank on behalf if people dont want to thank themselves, again, another teaching in school. I tweeted due to the ?&* posted and now it is set right and positive going forward.
"I will let Mr Lenigas know on open Twitter of the good news but I will not use your name Barksy1 except to say 1 REM*er is now in profit " --- why would you want to do this ?? I am also a former REM'er who has too crept into profit and I would suggest if you HAVE to tweet fatboy Lenigas, why not tell him its taken around 7 years to repair the damage his hype caused !!
----------------REM ^ E R S CAN MOVE ON NOW-----------------
Fri, 14 May 2021
On Twitter, someone who I did not know tagged me and went into expletives about REM plc which had NOTHING to do with me.
ALL stocks are subject to swings and it depends on how each one handles those swings or risk/s. In the case of Barksy1, a REM^er, she held on etc [Barksy1*s post said she is now in profit].
Now, I tweeted to David Lenigas & KDNC about 1 REM^er has moved into profit ie from the horse*s own mouth and post on KDNC. The mkt cap as I illustrated does evidence this. I have read myself posts from other REM*er as to how much they paid so that is how I know.
I am pleased therefore to hear that it has now come to the point that REM^ers who held on a/c to this strategy [HISTORY NOW AND NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL] is now in profit.
That was what many expressed. For me, I now know that all the noise is now HISTORY.
We, REM^ers can now all move on.
What happens next is up to the individual now and what strategies they deploy or NOT?
So, hence why I tweeted to David Lenigas on open Twitter and to KDNC who have brought about this day. Many co*s and investors are not so blessed - one iron ore co went down ie Baobab etc.
REM LIVED TO TELL THE STORY OF RECOVERY FOR THE OLD-TIMERS IN REM PLC.
News,
Fri, 14 May 2021.
Today, I read on the main KDNC stock forum [new name for REM plc] that Barksy1 , from the days of REM plc under David Lenigas, Chairman is NOW IN PROFIT.
KDNC share price is around 29p+, M K T C A P £ 4 4 MILLION.
At the all time high, REM plc hit 2.25p with a MKT CAP OF £95 MILLION. Dallasdaz gave the exact mkt cap. I also read some of the REM*ers paid 0.9p or 1p. This means a REM MKT CAP OF £ 4 7 MILLION.
In the last few years of the LITHIUM BEAR MARKET, REM*s Bacanora shares [20%] saved the day in that they were able to sell these to survive the bear mkt. Now, KDNC has EMH [European Metals] shares left from the REM legacy days of some 14% or so [not checked in recent days] but that stake comes to £14m give and take [check if interested what is the latest for self]. Therefore, £30 MILLION OF KDNC mkt cap may be ATTRIBUTABLE to either Amapa Iron Ore project, 30% Sonora JV with Bacanora-Ganfeng or 30% JV with Hastings [Yangibana] etc.
SONORA LITHIUM
IF David Lenigas did NOT have the commercial acumen to do a SCOPING STUDY for Sonora Lithium which came to $2 BILLION NPV [REM RNS 22 Dec 2014], then when it comes to the time of the MEXALIT 30% JV [Megalit has no 43-101 per KDNC on their website], it has NO baseline to negotiate with. Some brokers like Edison use Value-In-Situ but other Tier 1 Investment Bankers use NPV. Seeking Alpha said that REM plc did something unusual in that BCN NEVER COMMISSIONED A SCOPING STUDY FOR GREATER SONORA [Mexalit they mean] but that REM did it for the SHAREHOLDERS BENEFIT. INDEED SO. I posted the Seeking Alpha article [said] on REM plc which still exists on London South East not so long ago. SO, THIS IS FACT.
As for BACANORA SIDE via a Feasibility Study Estimate, it was only US$1.253 BILLION NPV.
This is for the 88% Ventana etc which belongs to Bacanora.
If the Ganfeng takeover of Bacanora succeeds , it will take some time if the offer is made firm in early June 2021 and then followed by many months before they get clearance from their govt.
So, in fact, the 30% JV KDNC OF MEXALIT HAS A HIGHER NPV IE ALMOST DOUBLE THAT OF BACANORA.
What transpires next is going to be interesting. It will depend very much on the SMALL PRINT IN THE REM MEXICO LTD AGREEMENT WITH BACANORA. Is there an signed agreement then of NSR [Net Smelter Royalty] if REM does NOT want to come up with the capex or capital costs? Or what else is in the agreement or AGREED TERMS? Only David Lenigas, former Chairman of REM plc will know the ins and outs as he would have consulted the legal people to draft the said agreement. This is the agreement that will count per my understanding which is norm.
I will let Mr Lenigas know on open Twitter of the good news but I will not use your name Barksy1 except to say 1 REM*er is now in profit [per your words in verbatim today as said].
So, good news.
News, Fri, 14 May 2021
Pardon typos, the page freezes and I often cant edit. So, I have to just type and p
"Our Strategy & Vision: Bacanora Lithium"
https://www.bacanoralithium.com/about-us/our-strategy-vision/
"Bacanora is finalizing its FEED for its Stage 1 117,500 tpa battery grade lithium plant."
---
Oh, I did NOT mention in my post below that I read that the "ACCELERATION" by Ganfeng will be once the takoever is over from recall but I did not save the article. So, if anyone is interested, they have to check as I cant provide WARRANTIES etc.
Thur, 13 May 2021.
Source: E & MJ Engineering & Mining Journal just out:
"Ganfeng makes offer for BCN."
Quote:
"Ganfeng said in Mar it planned to BOOST PRODUCTION capacity 5 F O L D to
6 0 0, 0 0 0 metric tons [mt] of lithium carbonate equivalent [LCE] ANNUALLY, WITHOUT PROVIDING A TIMEFRAME."
---
How interesting. I read from another source that Ganfeng intend to acclerate the Sonora lithium project but there were no details. 5 FOLD!! Now, one knows what they meant. I have to check what is the current arrangement is later.
Link: https://twitter.com/eminingjournal/status/1392856057949696005 34 mins ago from E Mining Journal.
Thur, 13 May 2021.
NEWS and Tomcat.
yes,
I'll echo that Barksy1, thanks news for sharing your thoughts and research and for giving a balanced view along with a handful of genuine lth's who have persevered and held strong.
I sincerely hope those who deserve so are rewarded.
jimb2
Thanks news, it’s always a pleasure to read your take on events and your detailed posts . Come back soon ...
Thanks news, it’s always a pleasure to read your take on events and your detailed posts . Come back soon ...
I have NO more need to post on this forum anymore.
The topics I opened for discussion have NOW ALL been answered by the "Possible" takeover offer of Bacanora Lithium [Sonora Lithium project] by Ganfeng.
The topics I raised on this forum has now transpired into EARLY POINTERS to this eventual takeover offer at 67.5p.
On the Bacanora forum, many had hoped to be part of the SONORA JOURNEY but now they realise they cant be given the takeover offer. Of course, the PRIZE is what is being discussed.
It will be the same come the time IF the acquirer should then want the 30% JV stake held by Cadence Minerals under REM Mexico Ltd. However, given that the Sonora project is NOT the main biz, it may NOT be as crucial given AMAPA iron project which is a new business.
AMAPA
Given Mr Mozaria, CEO of Cadence Minerals has now decided to GALVANISE all efforts to fast-tract shipping of the iron ore to CAPTURE the higher or high iron ore prices, the RISK is now reduced on 1 front.
As I said, in terms of iron ore, the price is the tricky part to deal with and I am pleased that Mr Mozaria has addressed this issue.
I note that IvyBush on the main KDNC forum said he invested £90k on the strength of Mr Mozaria*s interview on VoxMkts yesterday. Mullin85 also said that on the strength of the said interview he will invest today - he stated he is working in an FCA licenced environment.
So, no one can blame others if they have to see that their investment is DE-RISK to a point.
That was my whole point of discussion - to see if there were any contributions or any other aspect that I could not see but it was NOT taken that way. Many investment firms have
committees in the past and brain-storming is part of the investment process rather than blind investment?
So, I take my leave with thanks.
News, Tues, 11 May 2021
DYOR.
There will always be RISK in any stock but the risk factor may be 5 of which it may be too many to handle, hence the de-risking of even 1-3 is helpful etc. Every de-risking will happen ALL ALONG THE WAY. One cant afford to snooze - well one can but one has to take risk on board.
If one can afford losing one*s investment, then snoozing is okay I suppose?
my take is... ganfeng takeover will be good for us... (we knew that already)... but nice to have it confirmed... hopefully the jv agreements are robust enough to protect our interests... whichever way it goes from here... production... sale to ganfeng or a.n.other...
fingers crossed for consolidation and exponential growth... at light speed once ganfeng make a material start on the project... would be good if ganfeng are happy with their 80% and let use ride with them with our 20... if it was a disaster... we would have been told already... by rns or in the follow up interview...
P.S.
Mr Mozaria still maintained the AMAPA value at US$600m.
I now have the necessary METRICS I WANTED AND REQUIRED to be able to assess the RISK which has now decreased given the iron ore is going to be shipping as fast as is possible to CATCH THE IRON ORE PRICE at this level [high or higher price].
Otherwise, the co is hostage to the supply side.
I think there may a little clue in the SONORA situation as well but I will think further on this.
Mon 10 May 2021
News
LoL for some reason, Mr Mozaria seems able to now catch the drift as to what is wanted and needed.
I have just listened to the interview:
I am pleased to say that Kiran Mozaria*s interview today is very enlightening:
1] I am happy to learn that Mr Mozaria is aware that they NEED TO SHIP QUICKLY and therefore he thinks they will be able to do more than 1 shipment a month or do a 2nd berth
to "CATALYSE ON THE IRON ORE" prices. What is being shipped is iron ore FE58%.
2] Justin of Vox Mkts asked : Iron Ore prices soften.
Mr Mozaria gave a good answer and one that is cognisant of the fact that one has to watch the supply situ. He mentioned BRAZIL with their tailing issues and that they need to refurbish.
Also, the USA infrastructure plans will or may need iron ore so that is demand side. Mr Mozaria mentioned about Australia but I didnt catch what he said. All in all, many are cognisant that the high prices will hold but Mr Mozaria, quite rightly will not be drawn to give forecasts. This situ is something ALL analysts are aware of and hence why Justin asked. This was something that I was particularly concerned about. However, one cant ask more than a cognisant CEO who is going to expedite shipping.
2] Mr Mozaria said that Cadence is seen as "commercially successful" - Yes, that is the word that is important ie commercially and commerically AWARE is now present.
3] Scoping Study and Licences - So, that is the next stages.
4] Re-invest in the asset - that is also helpful.
5] Banks are in India-ah , so Zamin*s bankers.
6] 1.39Mt being shipped and 5.3Mt mainly 65% FE.
7] Mr Mozaria mentioned LITHIUM TWICE and towards the end re: Ganfeng but he did not give anything away but he sounded happy which is a bit unusual for him as he does often show emotion.
All in all, I am very pleased at the state of the reveal in the interview as there was NOTHING that was NOT answered that needed answering.
I discussed on this forum relating to the price but I do not think many catch on what it was about. Even in the interview, if one does NOT know the CONTEXT of demand and supply that is important relating to iron ore, one will not know what Mr Mozaria is referring to re: Brazil, Australia and USA. Australia is also a big exporter of iron ore.
Mon, 10 May 2021
That is what I heard and others can listen and check for themselves.
News.
joesnatch
I provide the courtesy of a reply since it was addressed to me:
1] As far as I am aware the KDNC 30% SONORA asset is held by "REM MEXICO LTD."
https://www.cadenceminerals.com/projects/sonora-lithium-project/
Cadence themselves explain the distinction of "SONORA LITHIUM PROJECT & DETAILS OF CADENCE OWNERSHIP" { Mexalit }& "PROJECTS OUTSIDE THE SONORA LITHIUM PROJECT."{Megalit}.
2] There has been NO information put out by BCN or KDNC as to their inclusion in the "possible" takeover deal. By this, I mean official info.
3] This was the discussion all along on this forum ie the size of the Sonora lithium project of which the Mexicans appear to be more nuanced ie as to the worth or ranking from their press.
4] One has to conclude therefore, KDNC is on their own on this until or unless informed otherwise and if GF has approached the co, then they have to issue an RNS if there is a firm offer.
5] One can come to SOME conclusion based on operational logistics & corporate structure etc.
Mr Lenigas has already tweeted about this.
6] Question now is HOW MUCH?
WHEN?
Of course, big question is: IF?
7] REM MEXICO LTD with 30% of Mexilit and Megalit appears to be a MINORITY holder.
8] Therefore, as a minority holder is there an URGENCY to buy KDNC*s share. 2 answers here:
From an a/c point of view, corporations tend to want to hold on to their money so as already discussed do they want in NOW or MUCH LATER given KDNC is considered a "MINORITY" holder.
9] As said, go to Twitter and look at Mr Lenigas*s tweet by clicking replies.
10] The wait continues and the next date is 6 June 2021 wherein GF need to make a firm offer. If that goes through, then it is another 8 mths to obtain their own govt clearance.
11] On the BCN forum, they are now cognisant they will need a white KNIGHT [takeover terminology] but no one has appear and NONE OF THE UK PRESS HAVE WRITTEN UP ANY ARTICLE eg FT etc. All quiet even in Mex ,their press and govt.
Hope that clarifies. That*s only my understanding and I leave others to comment if they so choose.
News,
Mon, 10 May 2021
It’s Bcn Joe...
News /Tomcat
I wrote and posted a message and it has not turned up here! Shortened version.
Do you know whether BNC have to offer us inclusion in a potential sale or are we our own master?
I just imagine that BNC would have a clause whereby we don't get a choice insofar as any prospective buyer may not want a jv.
As to Megalit( think that's the right one. Huge and unexplored?) I remember DL saying unless Bnc started any survey etc the money we put up towards exploration would be returned. (£1 million?) . I am not sure the final authorisation from Mexican department was granted re permissionions?
I do like this page.
Such a shame Colin Ore-ewing passed away, I really think that was the start of our sonora play unravelling.
P.S.
If Mr Lenigas was still at REM, then he may have been able to raise the capex given the other more recent deals one sees. Its all online to follow and I think I posted some of the details from recall.
I have not been following McArthur very closely these days but the last tweet from the CEO-Chairman said he visited the Millionaire*s Factory [from Canada to Australia] ie Macquaire.
Again, that would have to be via intro*s. Also the Glencore deal came from intro from you know who as tweeted.
So, yeah, $400-$420m could have been quite possible for Mr Lenigas*s capability from what one has seen. I cant guarantee it but as Seeking Alpha said with Tesla, it would OPEN DOORS to financing EVEN IF the deal did not finally go through. Its online or on REM forum to read. All history now.
Mr Lenigas does not appear to be very interested in Sonora anymore. One cant blame him from what happened?
It will be interesting to see how the outcome will turn out.
News, Sun 9 May 2021.
---------------------OFFICIAL VALUATION--------------
I will repeat the above so that I can check later when the final outcome is known.
As norm, the investment bankers will produce a official valuation report for M & A for MEXILIT AND MEGALIT [separately if possible].
It will differ from simply taking the BCN offer + - this and that because BCN has already paid out for the initial capital etc.
For Mexalit and Megalit, the latter is less defined as said without 43-101 as Cadence stated on their website.
So, the sums will be different-the only saving grace is that Mr Lenigas commissioned for a SCOPING STUDY and that may HELP which was ahead of the curve to cement value. Given there is no development plan yet, Mexalit remains greenfield by definition.
I will re-visit some time in the future.
News,
Sun, 9 May 2021.
------------------IVYBUSH POSTED AT 12:17, SUN 9 MAY 2021 ON KDNC---------------
It went like that:
Ivybush now thinks differently about Gan/Sonora etc.
Rationale goes like this:
Gan would take a strategy to ask REM-KDNC to earn-in knowing their finance is limited.
[Para phrased from what I understood]
VERBATIM QUOTE FROM IVYBUSH:
"THE BUY OUT COT COULD WELL BE A LOT LESS THAN HAS BEEN SUGGESTED HERE."
Observation:
LoL, Ivybush appears to be not afraid of voicing the COMMERCIAL VIEW POINT.
That is what has been seen in some of the more recent M & A*s which is very much the bean-counter*s point of view WHICH MATCHES THE BEAN-COUNTERS AT THE INVESTMENT ADVISORY services.
The answer may NOT be popular.
I pointed out that BCN told or put out info to Mex press how much is the next stage/s.
The sums are really big capital sums ie into hundreds of million and billion/s.One can read it online. If David Lenigas had taken over SONORA via REM plc then, he may have been able to raise the capex which was costed out in the SCOPING STUDY REM commissioned and paid for.
Then, it would be a matter of cash flow management until such time as allowable to get on to scaling. However, from what Mr Lenigas conveyed, I think he expressed the strategy as a sale at some point - he pointed out a particular buy-out.
The chapter is closing and with that I take my leave as my interest was always on the lithium at Sonora, which was ranked No 1 in the world.
I am here on my own and I see that whoever posts here is interested in .....
I see NO ONE HAS TAKEN ISSUE WITH IVYBUSH FOR HIS VIEW? My word, if I said something like that so straight forward, I would have the ants....
I wanted to see if anyone would post a COMMERCIAL VIEW and I am not sure if Ivybush has spoken to people but as far as I am aware, many in the financial world already know how it works and therefore the outcome is something commonly known. This is NOT the first big project and in some aspects it resembles the Potash story - again, one of big capex funding , technical aspects, sale of product etc.
Sun, 9 May 2021.
Barksy1
All a good weekend.
P.S. @Tomcat-14, Once the REM takeover was rejected, the shareholders COULD have objected but NOTHING. Now, the shocker is that the TESLA DEAL was objected to or No or whatever way DL put it in his tweet recently. Now, per what I read or understand or took away from DL*s latest tweet is that they are going for it again ie Tesla? That is all what X said or Y said.
Yes, I think myself the Tesla deal would have opened doors as THAT WAS A REAL SHOCKER to everyone in the lithium world. That is history now.
Come the time of KDNC, I am not sure if it will be PUT TO THE VOTE or the board will decide and make the recommendation ? Not sure what the style is?
I have an idea but cant be sure since I dont speak to Mr Mozaria, CEO.
I do know that if it was DL, one can tweet and ask him his rationalse etc. He is open and answers and communicative.
That*s all folks. The die is cast as far as one can see.
A/c to what I understand Joe Lowry hints or implies etc that the recent merger of Orb and Galaxy may have MOVE THE M & A needle? I read it quickly so that was my take on it but others may have other views etc?
So, let*s wait for KDNC as to what happens next. But IF not necessary or CRITICAL to their plans, then it may be a longer wait OR NOT?
One has to make some assumptions for self-that is where one*s DECISIONS will bear out one*s views = PRIZE OR NO PRIZE OR HALF A PRIZE ETC.
Going to be interesting.
ANYONE WANT TO STEP IN? WHITE KNIGHT FOR BCN ?
NEEDS DEEP POCKETS. LET*S SEE.
EVEN FOR SIRIUS POTASH, THE HEDGE FUND COULD NOT COME UP WITH THE BILLION/ISH
TO PAY FOR THE NEXT STAGE so, yeah , ITS MONEY FOLKS THAT WILL BE THE
F I N A L D E TER MINANT.
Sun, 9 May 2021