Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Ganfeng took over Bacanora Lithium and the co will delist on 26 Jan 2022 at 7am
from the London Stock Exchange. It will then list Bacanora as a PRIVATE CO.
Given Cadence Minerals has a JV in the Greater Sonora lithium project and a bit in the 1st stage, will it not mean that Ganfeng will have to keep Cadence informed and start discussions?
Discussion as to how the private co will be incorporate relating to REM MEXICO who holds the Sonora lithium project JV etc?
One to wait and await Kiran Mozaria's update on this if any?
Thur, 20 Jan 2022.
Think Kiran Mozaria , CEO of KDNC said that they could do it themselves [para-phrased] OR "SUITORS."
Litchfield is ONE of the MOST AWAITED ASSAY RESULTS [900m from Core boundary at Finnis, Northern Territory, Australia].
By we, KM means the consortium.
Wed, 19 Jan 2022.
A lot of eyes are not on this from KDNC.
EV_Bull posted the link on CCZ failed lithium deal. Kiran Mozaria's interview dated 13 Jan 2022 said that they were examining the assays at LITCHFIELD and will make an announcement as and when they have finished. Also, next steps but couldnt hear properly - will have to listen again as the sound is not so good.
Tues, 18 Jan 2022.
Eagle Mountain Mining issued an ANN, 14.1.2022: "HIGH GRADE ASSAYS underline resource expansion potential.
EM2 -share price Australian 65c with market cap of A$149.2 Million [copper play].
==
Charger Metals on ASX, Australia +25% at 72.5 cents @A$36.56 million mkt cap.
I just checked.
===
E X C I T E M E N T NOW ON NORTHERN TERRITORY LITHIUM.
First Charger which is away from Core's DFS lithium deposits, NT, Australia and now
we shareholders await the CADENCE LITCHFIELD assays results [900m to the boundary of
Core Lithium DFS deposits at NT, Oz]
News, Mon 17 Jan 2022.
"CHARGER METALS TARGETING SUGGESTS LARGE LITHIUM SYSTEM AT BYNOE."-Market Herald, 17 Jan 2022
"Found 2 large target zones. This system could be CONNECTED TO CORE LITHIUM'S FINNIS LITHIUM PROJECT." !!!
"11m @1.42 Li2o
19m @ 1.21 Li20"
Charger Metals on ASX, Australia +22% to Australia 71c.
KDNC owns 1.98% of Charger.
Aussies [HC, CCZ] said that Cadence did not have to return the £50,000 to CCZ given it was
non-refundable.
However, CCZ had exceeded the option period - the assay results from Litchfield, NT, Australia were still pending.
The assay results will be out shortly but this will be announced by Cadence now?
Just waiting.
News, 17 Jan 2022.
I am not wording it too tightly for obvious reasons.
For the avoidance of doubt: I listened to the interview in the dead of the night so hence
those who read must always check. I did QUALIFY by saying I have to listen to it again given
I skipped by clicking parts only.
Kiran Mozaria , CEO of Cadence Minerals said that there were 50 questions which is positive in that people want to know from Kiran Mozaria himself rather than what is said on forums.
Quite rightly so, given he knows a lot more from the inside of the co.
Some points of interest which I was impressed with given he spoke from a more analytical point of view which other in finance want to know:
- The Amapa valuation was based on the producing mine and so forth. [para phrased]
So, this is cleared up.
- The market had not given KDNC...
The opex etc changes and from this I gather the market did not want to do sums constantly?
-The capex for Amapa was also elucidated ie % to be financed by X, Y , Z.
-Kiran Mozaria made clear these were estimates.
-Relating to Ganfeng, it was also clear and the questions were very interesting relating to the
structure etc. So, Kiran Mozaria said he was "open to reasonable offers".
-Lastly, of interest, Mr MozarIa said they DO INTERNAL "valuation"/NPV but these are NOT MADE KNOWN which could "affect" [another word was used] NEGOTIATIONS.
So, all in all, I think this was a very OPEN, INFORMATIVE AND answers questions POINT BLANK
of which I wanted to know for a long time. Why? On forums one finds a common thread
on many and if the CEO cares to inform from BOTH A MARKET POINT OF VIEW and on the ground wherein co/s speaking to KDNC will be NEGOTIATING FROM rather then ...
YES, FROM THE WORLD OF M & A [mergers and acquisitions].
If anything is wrong, then listen for oneself as the sound is not very good.
As they say, DYOR and do due diligence by checking for oneself.
I look forward to solving the Litchfield mystery as said and that may be when the
ASSAY RESULTS are released in an RNS.
News, Sat 15 Jan 2022.
Take my cigar packet calculations with a pinch of salt, but they are incredible if achieved I have now adjusted the input prices down by 8% to account for wmt to dmt conversion. We could achieve a better price than the index if our product is superior.
http://thewire.fiig.com.au/article/2015/03/19/fortescue---explaining-the-various-cost-and-price-metrics
Per year figures 65% 62% Total
Tonnes wmt 4,400,000 900000 5,300,000
Price/dmt $156.80 $126.70
Price/wmt $144 $117 $140 avg
Revenue $634,726,400 $104,907,600 $739,634,000
Opex $21/t $111,300,000
SG&A $2/t $10,600,000
Capex/loans $10/t $53,000,000
Shipping $30/t $159,000,000
Total Costs $63/t $333,900,000
Gross Profit $77/t $405,734,000
Tax (Assumed 35%) $27 $142,006,900
Net Profit $50/t $263,727,100
Net Profit 49% $129,226,279
Net Profit 49% (GBP) £94,494,739
NPV8 (49%) GBP £617,697,434
IRR (49%) 94.69%
NPV8 Per share £3.99
Earnings Per Share £0.61
P/E 8 on the 49% option would be £672m valuation, if Sonora could be sold to fund this then share count would not need to be higher so ~£4.50 per share
49% being £84m so the investment of $20m-$30m could have a payback of under 1 year once in production great ROI
Sorry news, you completely misunderstood that, it is *estimated* that to increase our stake to 49% of Amapa mine it would cost $20-$30 million.
Profits are could be in the region of $200m per year (100%)
My ball park profit estimates once in full production (at Ore Prices of ~$140/t for 65% FE below todays prices)
Net Profit $43.82/t x 5.3m = $232.25m (£171.64m) x 27% = $62.7m to Cadence per year (£46.34m)
P/E 8 = £370m valuation = >£2/share (Just for Amapa)
Kiran Mozaria in the interview yesterday said that they are open to "reasonable offers."
This relates to the JV at Sonora lithium project, Mexico.
Understandably, there is ONLY 1 buyer for Sonora ie Ganfeng after taking over BCN [Sonora partner]?
Kiran Mozaria also touches on whether they can undertake the project etc at Sonora.
So, have to wait and see.
Sat, 15 Jan 2022.
I had to skip parts and come to the Q & A.
If I heard correctly, I think Kiran Mozaria, CEO of KDNC mentioned £20-£30 million profit.
However, given iron ore is priced in US$, then is it £20-£30m or is it US$20-30 million?
The share price showing on this page is 27p/31p with a MKT CAP OF £42 Million for KDNC.
So, if it is mid-point US$25 million profit [gross or net?], it is about £19m profit [FX say $1.35>£]?
At P/E 10, that's about say £200m or P/E 5, £100m.
DL did say that the sp could go back to the former times of REM [old name] days.
Yes, £100m should be about when REM was at the high of 2.25p =£95m.
Then, at the 5p party, that was about £200m+.
This is just a look at the historical to check what DL said in more recent times.
I will have to LISTEN AGAIN when have the time.
LONG DISCUSSION HERE about profit, potential sp etc.
Now, Kiran Mozaria, CEO of KDNC has put forth the figures clearly.
News, Sat 15 Jan 2022.
Today, Fri, 14 Jan 2022, an RNS came out thus:
"In regard to Litchfield and Picasso option with Castillo, given the recent increases in lithium compound pricing to over US$40,00 per tonne of battery grade lithium carbonate and the
PENDING ANALYSIS of the ASSAY RESULTS, we see the unwinding of this option agreement as an opportunity for Cadence to EXTRACT A HIGHER VALUATION for the projects asset."
==The £50k was also returned to Castillo.
CADENCE WEBSITE:
"LITCHFIELD & PICASSO"
"Pleasingly the current owners undertook a comprehensive sampling of soil and rock chip samples which are PRESENTLY BEING ANALYSES IN A LAB.
The assay results WHICH ARE DUE BACK SHORTLY will FORM A SIGNIFICANT COMPONENT OF THE PRELIMINARY DUE DILIGENCE."
My Comment:
Cadence had DELETED the Australian lithium projects after the CCZ option in.
Given the RNS today, Cadence has now put back up the lithium projects on its website but with
A DIFFERENT PARA THIS TIME TOWARDS THE END as above.
https://www.cadenceminerals.com/project/It-Is/
Interesting but puzzling as to what Cadence means about PRELIMINARY DUE DILIGENCE ie FOR WHO? Themselves? Or? This is with regard to LITCHFIELD.
Have to wait for further update from Cadence once ASSAY RESULTS are out?
Fri, 14 Jan 2022.
Thanks joesnatch & Ford12833 for asking after me.
I saw the KDNC RNS on Twitter relating to Amapa iron ore project, Brazil and share price rose 25% and today 12%.
I am in on KDNC's LITCHFIELD & PICASSO LITHIUM projects. Per the financial report, KDNC could not take on Amapa and these 2 lithium projects in Australia as well so they optioned it out.
Awaiting lab results on rock & soil samples and the keenly awaited one is LITCHFIELD, 900m to the boundary of Core Lithium's FINNISS project, Northern Territory, Australia.
News, Fri, 31 Dec 2021
Totally agree joe with that comment.
Hope your well
News,
hope you are still in for the ride.
Samples ie soil and rock have been sent to the lab for assays and should be back shortly.
So, waiting for the results.
This will also include PICASSO, near Liontown's lithium project in WA, Australia.
Litchfield is next to Core Lithium's Finniss project in Northern Territory , Australia.
Cadence has OPTIONED out both the projects to Castillo of Australia.
Sat, 13 Nov 2021.
"The White Gold Dream: Why Mexico Wants To Control Lithium Exploitation."-El Pas, 3 days ago.
"Even less so after Anglo-Canadian exploration co Bacanora Lithium DISCOVERED THE LARGEST DEPOSIT IN THE WORLD...SONORA IN THE NORTH OF THE COUNTRY."
----------------THANKS TO DAVID LENIGAS*S REM plc-----NOW KDNC- ALL HISTORY.
Great to be in on this from early days like others.
News. Sun 24 Oct 2021.
I read in one of the financial reports that discussed Amapa iron ore projects v Litchfield Lithium project, Northern Territory, Australia, near Core*s Lithium DFS deposits.
I posted Core*s latest mkt cap below.
What will history say of Amapa vs Litchfield, the latter of which is no longer under KDNC but optioned out although the sale price if achieved will result in Castillo shares providing the $2m payout conditions are met.
Wed, 20 Oct 2021.
Lithium spodument is now $2,444/t per S & P Global dated 15 Oct 2021.
I posted this on another lithium thread today, 20.10.21
Just checked. Core Lithium *s mkt cap is now A$936m as at 20 Oct 2021.
KDNC optioned Litchfield to Castillo Copper.
KDNC RNS today, 20 Oct 2021 refers.
Litchfield is 900m to the Core Lithium boundary. Core is Australia*s next spodumene lithium producer said to be H2 2022 or End 2022.
Core has a mkt cap >A$600m from recall.
The MAPPING by the Vendor*s Consultant Geo impressed Castillo per the RNS.
Just have a look why.
It is also stated that NO third party has looked at Litchfield once in Cadence ownership except impliedly Castillo under 90 day due diligence.
-----------------ONE TO WATCH-----------
Wed, 20 Oct 2021.
Stockbox Live Interview with Alan Green on KDNC.
Spodumene spot prices 6% li2o cif China is NOW US$ 2, 0 0 0 - $ 2 , 5 0 0 from Fastmarkets
https://twitter.com/JamesGoozee/statu/1449676961521946624 Sun, 17.10.21
[Screen shot show from Fast Markets]
--------
Relevant to KDNC option to Castillo Copper relating to LITCHFIELD & PICASSO lithium projects
on 90 day option due diligence period. I F spodumene is found akin to Core Lithium next door to Litchfield per their JORC, then that would be interesting. This is situated in the NT, Australia.
Picassso is near Liontown*s Buldania, WA, Australia.
The recent auction price of 14.9.21 has NOW TRANSLATED INTO SPOT PRICES. The cost for Core is so much lower from recall <$400? Kindly check.
On KDNC main forum, I think EV_Bull has just stated that re-commissioning of the AMAPA iron ore mine, Brazil could cost $142m if I copied it correctly today.
This would be about right in my own books given it is generally known that full-scale projects can cost $450m+ depending on the size of such projects. So, RE-COMMISSIONING is cheaper but there are other details that I have not checked from EV_Bull*s Youtube link.
So, it is correct that KDNC had to make a choice as said in the accounts ? That*s my perception of what was said/meant.
Also, I did get an idea that KM, CEO of KDNC could partly sell but I have not looked further into EV_Bull*s post on this. So, kindly check.
Suffice to say, I have said that iron ore is not something I have invested in. So, as an early REM*er under DL*s Chairmanship, most of us are interested in lithium? I dont know as the REM*ers no longer post and have become KDNC*ers.
14.10.21