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What on earth is he waffling on about now?
Yes, that's why I outlined two possibilities that are alternatives to equity raises.
yes… equity to pba up to 49%… but not necessarily a kdnc equity raise… tbh… it doesn’t look like it would all need to be provided in one single step up to 49%… it could be of course… but clear that we’ll be filling this gap created by the bank settlement and delayed shipments of the stockpiles… to allow pba to continue financing dev along the maintenance and repair programme… and to complete the feasibility studies…
Thanks @Dallas, @obs is right, it's too complicated for someone taking a 5 minute look, obviously many of us have spent a long time going through it all and even then it's not always simple to get! Once the right of first refusal is clarified I think it will take the brakes off the SP.
@EV, I know, I translated the JRP lol. I thought it was that that @TC was referring to ;-)
The rampers are now back in control I see. Goot times. Aren't Nick, maddog, cautious, Ray and the other one awful.
@Dallsas I laid out all of the details here.. https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/q800za/amapa_details_on_the_49_option/
The project needs the $24m as part of the JRP (Dip B) "Project Equity" we can fund that taking us to 49%, or bring on a partner yes and keep our 27%. KM saying in the AR that we intend to increase our stake (not a partner buying in) and hopefully will offer an explanation of how he see's that being funded on Friday's Q&A.
One thing is certain in my mind @Barksy, if many here find it hard to understand what is going on and the possibilities, I'm pretty sure the wider market won't get it! I know @Bannor like's to tease, but keep an eye on those 29p options... ;-)
So grateful to you clever lot for your continued discussions….quietly taking it all in and getting a lot more hopeful for this year ….fingers crossed
Debt funding is for the $200m capex, I don't recall anything being mentioned for how we plan to fund our 22%. It expect that might be asked / answered on Friday though.
didn’t we report in earlier presentations that we would be seeking debt funding for this possible next financing stage… could be why we are realising value of our other assets… with the recent deals with hastings and evergreen… for collateral to secure the loans…
A loan may work out a lot better if for example the 10% could be sold later for $50m to pay back the $24m loan of course depending on what funding is at our disposal. Both options far better than dilution.
It's in the annual report @tomcat.... however not necessarily 49% IMO... Could we for example sell 10% of Amapa for $24m and buy 22% for $24m end result 39% of Amapa at no additional cost, no placing, no dilution, no loans etc. That is what I am hoping for. (percentages may vary).
Note that KM wasn't explicit about 49%:
"During 2022, our priorities on the Amapa Iron Ore Project will be the publication of a maiden Ore Reserve Estimate, followed by the release of a PFS on the project. We also plan to increase our stake in the asset."
looks pretty clear to me from yesterday’s investor presentation… that we will be going to 49% ownership of amapa… in the next 6-months or so…
kdnc @ 49% amapa : £3.36/share : npv8 £580m…
kdnc @ 27% amapa : 11p/share : mcap ~£20m…
@Ivy, (only if your interested) compare the fib levels I drew in January @28p https://drive.google.com/file/d/10QHS9T0IYBVhXrq0hLN8T2dOqQs4n4Uw/view?usp=sharing
To how it's played out. Breaking and retesting every key Fib level...https://drive.google.com/file/d/10PFdDcL88n8HIrEUOqHV-kANg7-fgaMx/view?usp=sharing
It's not brought down by sellers with large holdings.
I have factored in $35/t KM estimated $30/t recently
Revenue $633,374,000 $45,963,200
Per Tonne Total
Opex $21/t $111,300,000
SG&A $2/t $10,600,000
Shipping $35/t $185,500,000
EBITDA $70/t $371,937,200
Capex/loan repayments (my est) $10/t $53,000,000
Total Costs $68/t $360,400,000
Gross Profit $60/t $318,937,200
Tax (Assumed 35%) $21/t $111,628,020
Net Profit (100%) $39 /t $207,309,180
Where are the shipping costs in those valuation?
Eyewatering figures even at the lower ore prices, looking forward to seeing the PFS.
Per year 65% 62% Total
Tonnes wmt 4,900,000 400,000 5,300,000
Price/dmt $140.50 $124.90
Price/wmt $129 $115 Weighted avg: $128
Revenue $633,374,000 $45,963,200 $679,337,200
After tax NPV8 (100%) 14yr $1,071,058,753
After tax NPV8 (100%) 25yr $1,441,420,516
NPV8 Per Cadence share (27%) £1.85
NPV8 Per Cadence share (49%) £3.36
NPV8 (27%) GBP £319,406,822
NPV8 (49%) GBP £579,664,233
Great accumulation area and finding support ;-)
https://drive.google.com/file/d/10PFdDcL88n8HIrEUOqHV-kANg7-fgaMx/view?usp=sharing
It's not me - I've stopped buying for now! lol.
Keep it up @Obs, we have movement ;-)
Indeed @Ivy. We need to drum up some interest in this company, and I'm expecting that to happen shortly after the MRE/PFS - and expecting brokers to begin to issue notes with the "simplification" of our holdings following the LT&LS and HAS news, though Sonora is still the wild card. Minimum valuation of that to me is $15m, but could be orders of magnitude more than this should it play out just right. Even fair value based on the offer by Ganfeng on a reserve basis based on $11/kg would send us into orbit! And what's LCE at nowadays? 60? 70? This is so under the radar it smarts. lol. Get some decent publicity done Kiran. Crux for example. Still great buying opportunity, which I have been doing. In spades...
@Dallasdaz, lets hope the fundamentals win out!
It seems very dangerous to me to sell down a large holding in a small {£18m] Aim company
with no get out clause.
Most likely and what I'm seeing is a fight between fundamentals and technicals....nothing more, nothing less ;-)