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ETA:
2021-05-29 03:00
Great spot! I wonder what the delay was? Perhaps the court has judged in our favour? Wishful thinking! :-))))
you’re probably right ob...
1.39m / 0.045 = 31ships...
1.39m x 10% / 0.045 = 3.1 ships...
mv is #4... so the must have been waiting for some confirmation that they were good to go...
It's $10m net profit not 10%, 3 45t shipments would almost certainly be over $10m profit.
Even at $150/t with $1.75m of costs per shipment.
Shipping costs at $10-13k per day are likely to be $750k-$1m per ship leaving $750k for port and handling costs? two shipments ought to have done it.
"This shipment was approved via a court petition ("Approved Court Petition"), details of which can be found here, allowing DEV to export sufficient iron ore to realise a US$10 million profit."
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/KDNC/second-iron-ore-shipment-amapa-project-update-mtlura0harw64vt.html
The 10% cut for the Banks could potentially push it in to a third shipment but not a fourth.
and a certified translation of the court ruling is here... https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/KDNC/update-on-the-amapa-iron-ore-project-9s0d524uqa7ognc.html ...
tom at this rate of shipping we could do 21 shipments this year
yep... catch up on some of the delays... and make the most of the current high ore prices... makes perfect sense to me to ship it as fast as they possibly can now... for us... and the banks... (without flooding the market;)... how far can you see into this year’s shipping schedules...
Circa 2.5 billion tonnes of iron were produced in 2020, not sure the sale of our stock pile would affect the market price of iron ore even if we sold it all in one go!
there is a 19 day slot open from the 5th of june to fill
there is a 19 day slot open from the 5th of june to fill
mz... 16.1kn... she’s a fast one...
Hopefully she’s got a pen on board.
SP drifting like plankton in the ocean rather than steaming ahead like MV at 16 knots whilst we wait for “ catch of the day”
drifts on the most minute volume....
Hoping it may even drop into my buy zone.... :-)
Well I did say subject to change... MZ: 22,23,27; C:25,27,31; MV: 27,31,04 which means there are now 4 scheduled to sail for the first J and 3 for the second. 1 for A, so far. All subject to change - especially that first J I would have thought as 4!? :-))))
It still feels like news could drop at any time, and potentially during trading hours, unless they've managed to arrange the final ratification to be a PM hearing with Amapa 4 hours behind us.
@tomcat - they can't ship more than $10m net. Not sure why you think this might be a possibility? Does anyone else? EV_Bull? Once the deal goes through and we take our 20% they can then ship the rest.
It's going to be an interesting few days/week or two :-))))
Ob.
does that mean we’re hunting for a dev c now then... or is that a chippy squeezing in between...
It crossed my mind that if bank deal was delayed Solicitors advice to Dev might be to apply to Court fir permission to ship a further 10 million profit worth of iron ore....
The latter @tomcat. Currently to be named.
@Legalease That's possible, but whilst that request goes through the courts I can't see anything sailing, and you saw how long it took last time...
I've got a feeling we may be a week or less away now. Exciting times
I can't see that any more than a maximum of 3 shipments are possible prior to the agreement (2 of which are now completed of course).
Therefore given that two ships are en-route and the way Kiran has been talking in recent interviews.... my best guess is that the banking syndicate representatives have approved of the deal, the 3 banks have either signed, or it's a formality because they have already agreed to it all (perhaps some other dept / higher ups at the banks had to sign it off hence delays), Cadence are waiting for court ratification and the ships have been booked knowing it's all going to be done by the time they arrive before formally confirming.
Remember the previous shipping deal took 7 days to be fully ratified in court. In the mean time the ships are booked and on their way knowing it's all basically approved except for the formalities of the legal process.
This could also have been approved in the court on the 15/5/2021 Conclusions for Decision pending the documents.
Previously the decisons were published on the same day but perhaps they are waiting for the bank syndicate documents before publishing the full decision.
I agree with this take @EV_Bull. However, I think it's also possible that just a little more than 3 ships might be required to realise net $10m, and if this is the case I can imagine the fallback scenario if we haven't concluded formally in time that we have an agreement with Unamgen to fill the remaining holds of the 4th ship with their ore.
Just musing, my view is deal is very close, to the point it could be tomorrow.
7.00Am would be lovely