Each to his own Penguins, just pointing out your track record, no doubt your pessimism leads to great joy in your investing as if you apply it across the board the reality must always be wildly better than your projections:)
I expect the share price to reflect the rig arrival by close of business on Friday, next week is a bank holiday so can’t imagine the hoards will wait till the Tuesday, too risky it will have arrived by then and we will have seen a100% rise in share price.
Then consider this. Irrespective of whether you favour Brexit or not, the fact remains the UK is now entering a period of high uncertainty and higher geo political risk, than we have seen since probably the ‘70’s. The attraction of energy sourced from the uk will never have been higher than since the post war period when he were rebuilding our great nation. This bodes extremely well for UKOG.
Alternatively, let’s look at from a reserves perspective, 35% recoverable of 11mill from Hh1 at £20 per barrel would equate to circa to circa 77 mill and 45% recoverable of 14 mill from hh1 at say £20 per barrel would equate to a value of circa £125 million. If HH2 simply replicated the results then that could jump to a low end value of £144 mill to to a high end val uation of £250 mill. The story doesn’t stop there though, the next well isn’t a vertical test well, it is horizontal production well it is likely to ‘see’ a significantly higher volume of oil than the vertical well imo. If it sees’twice as much oil, then the figures jump to between 22 mill and 28 mill , plus the 11 to 14 mill for HH1. This equates to 33 to 42 million barrels. 35% of 33 million barrels is circa 12 million barrels, at £20 a barrel that values the oil at £240 mill. At 45%recovery of 42 million barrels that would be circa 20 million barrels, at a value of £20 per barrel that would value HH1 and hh2 at £400 million, add in the additional planned HH wells, BB and the isle of W and the figures potentially become mouth watering, potential 10 bagger imo.
Then consider further drilling at HH and going back to BB successfully and drilling isle of W, what price to earnings ratio would the market apply in such circumstances.... 5? Value circa £150 mill, 10? Value circa £300 mill, 20? Value circa £600 mill. 10 bag suddenly looks feasible imo.
I’m expecting 1000 bopd per day in the near term, 30,000 barrels a month, or turnover of circa £1.5 mill per month, or £15 mill over the next 12 months or so, just from the current well and the next one, finding from production does not look too far fetched now imo