RE: Feuds23 Nov 2025 00:28
Here’s what I got out of Chat GPT 5 professional.
Short answer: on very rough but market-anchored assumptions, that three-way parcel comes out somewhere in the c. US $5m–$11.5m (~£3.8m–£8.8m) range, with a “centre-ground” guess of about US $8.2m (~£6.3m).
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1. Assumptions (Zimbabwe / Marange context)
Public data for Marange/Zim rough suggests historic average values of roughly US $20–$45/ct, sometimes quoted a bit higher in good years.
For your specific Vast parcel, we don’t have category-by-category price guidance in the RNS, just the carat splits. So the only honest way is to model scenarios using realistic per-carat bands for each category:
• Mixed-quality gem (gem + cleavage + Rejection High)
• Conservative: $150/ct
• Base: $250/ct
• Optimistic: $350/ct
• Low-grade gem (Rejection Low)
• Conservative: $40/ct
• Base: $60/ct
• Optimistic: $80/ct
• Industrial (Boart) – Marange “industrial” can still trade surprisingly high when sorted and exported; informal reports range from tens to hundreds of $/ct depending on context.
• Conservative: $10/ct
• Base: $25/ct
• Optimistic: $40/ct
FX: 1 USD ≈ 0.76 GBP (1 GBP ≈ 1.31 USD).
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2. Value by category
A. Mixed-quality gem
12,591.77 ct
• Conservative (150/ct):
12,591.77 × 150 ≈ US $1.89m
• Base (250/ct):
≈ US $3.15m
• Optimistic (350/ct):
≈ US $4.41m
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B. Low-grade gem – Rejection Low
63,091.75 ct
• Conservative (40/ct):
63,091.75 × 40 ≈ US $2.52m
• Base (60/ct):
≈ US $3.79m
• Optimistic (80/ct):
≈ US $5.05m
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C. Industrial – Boart
50,993.98 ct
• Conservative (10/ct):
50,993.98 × 10 ≈ US $0.51m
• Base (25/ct):
≈ US $1.27m
• Optimistic (40/ct):
≈ US $2.04m
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3. Totals for the 126,677.5-ct tender parcel
Add all three categories:
🔹 Conservative case
• Total ≈ US $4.92m
• At ~0.764 GBP/USD ≈ £3.8m
Implied average across all 126,677.5 ct ≈ $39/ct, i.e. just under the top of the historic Marange average band.
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🔹 Base case (centre-ground)
• Total ≈ US $8.21m
• ≈ £6.3m
Implied average ≈ $65/ct, i.e. modest uplift vs historic Marange average to reflect that this is a sorted tender parcel, not raw run-of-mine.
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🔹 Optimistic case
• Total ≈ US $11.49m
• ≈ £8.8m
Implied average ≈ $91/ct, which would be towards the top end of what you’d reasonably expect for a Marange-origin mixed parcel in today’s softer rough market, but not impossible if the mix and size distribution are better than the labels suggest.
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4. How this sits versus chatter/expectations
• Retail and bulletin-board chatter has thrown around US $300/ct averages for the entire 129–135k-ct historic parcel, implying ~US $39m rough value.
• Remember your question is only about the 126,677.5-ct initial tender block, excluding some higher-qu