Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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@wildtiger
Ditto and now leveraging in more today. Soon be topping 92p again. Yield alone makes this an interesting play.
Interesting many aren’t following him
Bought a starter at 75 today, it looks abit way oversold after the results
JUP flogging CHRY at 75p when market bid is 78p is not a good idea. I hold CHRY too.
From today's Times:
"Clients who entrusted their cash to Jupiter's fund management star stockpicker Ben Whitmore pulled £1.1bn net out of the business in the 3 months up to March after he announced he was leaving to set up his own firm".
Hope Jupiter find somebody as good to replace him!
I remember all these articles
https://news.sky.com/story/amp/fund-manager-jupiter-hires-bankers-to-draw-up-1-5bn-bid-defence-plan-12492538
https://www.cityam.com/fund-manager-jupiter-gets-ready-to-fend-off-bids-worth-1-3bn/
https://www.standard.co.uk/business/corporate-britain-sainsbury-private-equity-us-b1074674.html
If you look at MBG with £700m prodit and c£300bm assets, we are 15% of their size with £100m profit and £50bn assets. Their market cap is £4.8bn so I estimate £700-£800m, twice what it is today.
We would of course be worth more to an aquirer who already has building lease costs, head office costs and support services, so potentially far more than £1.30-£1.50 per share
Anyone putting in a cheeky offer will expect to bag a bargain so I genuinely think £1-£1.30 is achievable
"Active fund management is shrinking." - and underperforming. Easy to check looking at cumulative returns of funds held versus say the FTSE350. It's quite shocking how many funds struggle to keep up even with their own benchmarks.
For Jupiter:
"Measured over one year, 65% of mutual fund AUM (31 December 2022: 49% of mutual fund AUM) delivered above-median performance,"
So, flip a coin with a 2/3 chance of beating an index - while the managers spend your money going to conference jollies.
In this day and age, Fund managers need to offer something in addition to Index trackers, such as long/short positions to earn extra income - then the fund has to earn the extra income and deliver with the strategy.
It is a bit absurd how cheap this is now, despite everything.
They can't do much about unstoppable rise of passive funds, but there will always be a place for active management, albeit on a smaller scale long term. Where they have more chance of seeing the dial moving in their favour more is UK market malaise surely getting close to, or past its peak now. FTSE100 hitting ATH has to help wider sentiment.
They need to stem the outflows for market to believe in it again, and if UK is seen as less of a dog that'll improve the odds. So will rate cuts in summer.
I think the update plus the reality there is unlikely to be a rate drop in the summer./
So what would that make a realistic take over price ?
Sounds like ‘scale’ is what fund managers need. Even if no takeover we’re happily making £100m profit per year. £260m cash in the bank. No massive debts with high financing like many businesses
I think this is an absolute gift at this price
Jupiter is an excellent brand that’s been around for a long time. If the stock market continue to rise this could be a gold mine.
10 x ebita makes this worth c£1bn, three times market cap
Patience needed
Likewise, purchased at something like 160p two years ago and price went down ever since , hopefully they manage to turn this around or someone buys and puts us out of our misery and move on .
Active fund management is shrinking. By putting two shrinking businesses together, all that is left is one shrinking business. Not a good rationale for a takeover.
If you annualise the Q1 net outflow, the business would be losing about 12% annually of its AUM, before taking into account any market movement. That is truly shocking, despite the management’s attempts to categorise much of this as “one-off” exceptionals. That said, it does baffle me we’re not seeing mergers in what has always been a consolidating industry given 1+1=1 on amalgamating costs, whilst 1+1=2 on amalgamating revenues, however much revenues are in decline.
Surely somebody will swoop in now at this price and offer £1 a share
Fcf, profitable, strong brand, take it over while we still have some credit left
No point asking me ;-) I bought in a couple of years ago thinking it was good value after previous falls and all I've done is watch my investment shrink week after week. When to catch a falling knife?
I bought some because it's very good value at today's price. For every £1 of stock you get around £120 funds under management.
I can’t believe MNG haven’t put in a bid. £100m in earning before tax, they could increase that by reducing overheads after a merger.
Agreed, could have been much worse. Got excited for a second when they said AuM had increased, until i realised it was from gains and ignoring that its still a net outflow :/
Swings and roundabouts with Jupiter, could have been much worse though.
AuM up due to rising markets, but outflow has picked up again. Not good.
Yep, Tuesday.
Alliance Trust have dispensed with JUP's services. Not a good sign! Trading update due next week?
They made a statement regarding dividend policies a good while back, and at the then price it worked out about 3% going forward. It will be a wee bit higher now! I cannot find the relevant RNS, but the dividend has to fall to take into account the declining business. However, the outflow of funds is slowly being stemmed, and with a PER of 9 and a PEG of 0.6 this is not expensive.