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Https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/what-is-indonesias-new-plan-control-export-key-commodities-2026-05-20/

As far as believing the Equity Research profit forecasts goes...

Honestly I don't know.

From 2027 Hui should be making profit, and as one of the other posters said IIG is £30 - £40 on a two year view. I think that's right. Post deal, £30 - £40 will reduce down to account for the larger number of shares. Say £11.50 - £15.40 range.

I'm happy to wait and see.

@Irishdemon

> Or, are you saying that by Holding or Buying

> on-market you get awarded 3 Bonus shares

> for each you Hold or Buy

Yes I am.

So effectively you buy one now and end up with 4 shares in total after the deal completes.

4 x 80p = 320p.

That means if you buy AC8 at 215p or so on Tuesday, you're getting a bargain. Assuming the deal goes through of course.

For anyone who is interested, I did some share price calcs based on the Equity Research broker note, but adjusted for the reverse takeover. You can find the note on Research Tree.

They quote PAT (profit after tax) forecasts for the next four years. Working this through on a p/e of 15 using the Combined Group share count produces these share price targets:

2027 360p

2028 1560p

2029 2600p

2030 3000p

And don't forget if some reason the deal doesn't go ahead then you would be left holding AC8 shares. Don't bet the house on this, please.

But the market could easily revalue them beyond this because of the Hui10 prospects. I simply see AC8 a better value way of accumulating shares in the Combined Group at this point in time.

On Friday for

IIG @ £2.20 get you 2.6 shares in the Combined Group

versus

AC8 @ £2.15 get you 4 shares in the Combined Group.

@Irishdemon. It's not quite as you say. The new shares are not worth 560p each that would be an outrageous miscalculation, and the proposal is pretty well thought through. The Bonus Shares are shares in the Combined Group on Admission. The best way to value then is to go back to the RNS:

"On the basis of the middle market closing price per AC8 ordinary share on the last business day prior to this announcement of 80 pence per share, the Possible Offer values the fully diluted share capital of IIG at approximately £600 million (excluding the issued and to be issued ordinary share capital of AC8)."

I'd say they are worth 80p each.

It's relatively complex and they don't explicitly state the ratio for the AC8 Bonus Issue, but they give you enough information to calculate it.

Going back to the 8th April RNS;

Start at the "Bases and sources" section:

"2. AC8's percentage ownership of the Combined Group on Admission, has been calculated on the basis of:

(i) The estimated fully diluted ordinary share capital of AC8 (being 7,500,035 AC8 ordinary shares) (the "AC8 Fully Diluted Share Capital"), comprising:"

This outlines how the share capital of AC8 will be expanded under the deal.

Then go to this section below it:

"holding approximately 0.99 per cent. in aggregate of the issued ordinary share capital of the Combined Group at Admission, which is currently estimated to be 2,332,626 AC8 ordinary shares."

The Bonus Issue is calculated using .99 percent of the Combined Group (i.e IIG and AC8) share count. Obviously this is much bigger than the relatively small number of AC8 shares in issue at 7th April.

They have useful indicated 2,332,626 shares as a guide for the Bonus Issue.

Then go back to the beginning of the document and you will find this:

"it is anticipated that there will be a proposed issue of bonus shares to AC8's ordinary shareholders prior to Admission and before conversion of the 2025 CLNs and 2026 CLNs (each as defined below) (the "Bonus Issue"), such that IIG shareholders would hold approximately 99.01 per cent. of the issued ordinary share capital of the Combined Group on Admission and AC8 shareholders would hold approximately 0.99 per cent. of the issued ordinary share capital of the Combined Group on Admission."

This tells you the Bonus Issue shares are applied before conversion of the CLNs.

Divide the indicated Bonus Issue (i.e. .99% of the Combined Group) by the AC8 issued share capital before conversion of the CLNs, which is 750,000 AC8 ordinary shares (in issue as at 7 April 2026)

That is a resulting 3.11 ratio.

The other thing to add is that at this stage the reverse takeover by AC8 is a proposal. If it were to fall through for any reason then holding AC8 shares would be a bad idea and holding IIG shares would be much safer. Hence the discrepancy.

Certainly has @irishdeamon. From RNS 08/04. The Bonus Issue is defined.

And if you buy AC8 shares, you get 3 additional bonus shares for every AC8 share you hold under the deal. Arbitrage opportunity.

I thought the same thing.

The state entity wins on the diamonds but doesn't take anything on the HMS. In order mine the HMS, they have to take care of the diamonds. The board think it will make serious money with Perdevlei and the two largest shareholders have put a lot of their own money into this project. Kenmare are in Mozambique and their capital equipment and extraction costs are far higher. They make a business out of selling garnet and ilmenite to the Chinese, so why couldn't Kazera?

Cash from diamonds. John Wardle very usefully gives us some numbers: £26,000 received for 201 carats (Oct and Dec auctions -390 diamonds). Referring back to the Optimisation Plan in the November 20125 presentation, you can see they are using somewhat higher figures for both carats produced (monthly) and revenue received per carat. It could be argued that the $400 average figure per carat used in the presentation is gross (i.e. realised auction price) and not nett to DBM. But then it makes the figures used a bit misleading. The retained percentage to Alexkor is not quoted, but it looks like it could be as high as 60% comparing John's figures and those shown in the Optimisation Plan.

Love your traffic light assessment!

@Lamps56 I think Oak Bloke is useful because his piece draws us back back to the value of the 622,000 tonnes of tantalum ore and explains why Hebei have been fighting so hard to hang on to the asset. Though paying for it would sort that out!! The Namibian Supreme Court is simply a means of drawing the whole process out in the hope they can get hold of the mine without paying any more for it, perhaps via Chinese state pressure on SA (and therefore Alexkor). Could the 2a mining right award be politically linked to Aftan behind the scenes? I agree with your earlier comments about not expecting too much from the interims. WHM are producing titanium oxide but it's just being stockpiled. The war in the gulf will be making it very difficult to negotiate a new offtake agreement. I'd like to know more about the diamond revenues though. Personally, I think Dennis is doing a good job answering ad hoc shareholder questions and putting out updates when there is something to announce.

Https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/batterednbruisednnot-amused

# Kazera

At the point of the July RNS I think they thought they could still sell smaller quantities albeit under the existing Fujax contract. The problem with producing the HMS to a higher cut off is that it takes more processing. They would only have been able to meet half the contract capacity. i.e. 3000 tonnes a month. Fujax SA were running things from the point of the road transport, regulatory approval (because its mildly radioactive) sale, payment and shipping abroad to China. WHM and Fujax were working very closely on this, so I think its fair to assume (it is just that on my part) that Fujax indicated at the time the market in China still existed for smaller shipments. Quantity is the critical part of the equation here.

This whole issue was discussed at length in the AGM, after the formal business had been done.

My original reason for posting was to support what stephen was saying on the 28th. He said this:

"Need to attend these agms particularly if you holding large amount stock, need really grill them. Meet ceo ect, get better feel of what's happening"

As I said he's absolutely right. That is the real point here.

@Gord_1 by posting: "I fail to see how people think these people are good when this is clear deception !" You are demonstrating exactly why it is important to have direct conversations and find out the facts for yourself.

To your main point about deception, don't forget most of the raise came from John Wardle and Richard Jennings.

I'll leave it that.

There are no HMS shipments at the moment. The Fujax SA agreement announced 13/12/24 didn't lead to sales. The 24/25 Final Results RNS (12/12/25) explains how this has been handled. See reference to "Fujax loan facility". The earlier RNS in July (03/07/25) essentially tells us Fujax learnt that the (Chinese) market requires concentrate with a >24% TiO₂ cut off grade. New offtake agreements are now required for what is a more refined product (>30% TiO₂), potentially with the garnet removed and sold locally.

Alexkor don't allow Kazera to publish the results of the diamond auctions. The market for diamonds is weak at the moment. The new inland block they have been awarded (smaller diamonds) is potentially a decent earner. I think it's known as Block 30 (but I could be wrong) and historically previous contractors were getting between 1000 and 3000 carats a month out of it. DBM keep a large percentage of the diamond auction price realised. A smaller percentage goes back to Alexkor. The much bigger business is the heavy mineral sands.