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I'm not selling what I have, but I wouldn't buy now at 25p or so. Anyway, interesting times and at some point an opportunity to top up. If it was 5p even we'd both be buying.
I might add more but I'm not going to sucked into the swings up as it goes down. It's hard to know where the risk/reward tipping point is here. But not at 20p I'd say.
James! You could lose the lot. The debt is in Euros, the income in Roubles. Their clients are big western multinationals who are washing their hands of Russia. It's looking very dodgy, the prefs are highly illiquid and not a good instrument to trade.
No payments, they'll preserve the cash.
Don't mean to give anyone advice to buy of course. It's just my thinking. They have been a great dividend payer so they probably don't owe me much.
Hi both, I've owned these since Aug 2016. I just hold certs so selling was never an option. These prefs are largely already owned by the "state" if you want to call it that. i.e. the oligarch class over there. I've looked at the shareholdings in the past and it's obvious what's been going on. I wouldn't be surprised if Putin owns 5% of the RAVP stock indirectly!
I think it all depends how long the conflict in Ukraine runs for, 6 weeks, I think probably buy additional shares in a measured way in line with what you can afford to lose. If the conflict spreads to neighbouring states, then I'm not sure much of this will really matter.
@ Pickuzawinnah: HeiQ is a growth stock with pretty interesting prospects. You can't asses it on market cap alone. (I don't hold it by the way.) But it was recently re-tipped in SCSW and has been reviewed quite positively on Stockopedia. The management also presented at Mello Events which went down quite well. EV is £267M, but eps growth for 2021 is also 40%. There is also an investor's presentation you can download from the website, these are the things to study carefully. The question to ask yourself is do you think this business will be successful? What might it be worth in 3yrs time and why? Then invest... Sorry for the off topic everyone.
Camelot1968 - it's not as bad as you say regarding Verona. The VRNA ADSs are in units of 8 AIM shares. VRNA costs 8x more than the VRP Crest/AIM share as a result. Verona Pharma could yet come good. There is a Covid-19 trial running in Alabama at the moment, results early next year. Plus COPD phase 3 trials have also started. Think of it as a US version of SNG. It's quite possibly as out of fashion now as NCYT was back in 2019.
Hi bewise, EUA is a very different kind of the investment...
If you are interested in a PGM miner, then I guess you've also looked at JLP (Jubilee Metals) and SLP (Sylvania Platinum)? Both have a much lower market cap, and look on paper as pretty good options. I've often wondered about JLP. I think PGM prices will increase if hydrogen vehicles really take off. The only miners I have are RIO (obviously large cap) and SGZ (Scotgold).
I hope you manage to decide what to do. The risk you face - like all of us - is giving up on VRP/VRNA then only to see the thing finally come good after the results of the Alabama Covid-19 study are published.
Hi bewise, I've often read your posts over the years. I think you post good insightful ideas.
Since you mention believing in the drug; I have to ask do you believe in it?
I guess you like to be able to trade when it suits you, so being locked into a USA equity really wouldn't suit. Do you think you'll convert or just sell up?
Thank you.
I'm not really relaxed about the move to ADSs as the only trading mechanism. When we're off AIM there will be even less governance! This is from the September RNS, where it talks about what coming off AIM means to shareholders:
"The Company will also no longer be subject to the QCA Corporate Governance Code or be required to comply with the continuing obligations set out in the FCA’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules (“DTRs”) or, provided the Company’s securities remain outside the scope of the regulation, the EU Market Abuse Regulation (“MAR”). In addition, the Company and its shareholders will no longer be subject to the provisions of the DTRs relating to the disclosure of changes in significant shareholdings in Verona Pharma."
At least they are up-front about it.
I must be asking for trouble, but I've decided to hang on to my VRP shares and let Halifax convert them to VRNA ADSs. My reasoning... I think the Phase 3 status and the 16 clinical trials performed to date reduce the risk of the formulation NOT being successful. Their business plan looks reasonable, and the market opportunity looks pretty big. Once they start marketing the product in 2023, a $1Bn market cap should be achievable. Nasdaq should give Verona a higher valuation.
I can believe that the anti-inflammatory and improved lung function characteristics of Ensifentrine will help Covid patients too.
In the past I’ve looked at Synairgen – it’s a very similar product and the company is comparable. VRP/VRNA has the same market cap as Synairgen but SNG001 is at Phase 2. Comparing the two offerings is interesting: SNG001 appears to improve lung function/volume more that Ensifentine (2.21L versus 400mL) but SNG001 is earlier stage and doesn't have the same anti-inflammatory properties as far as I can see. I think Verona is probably lower risk.
In effect, the move to delist the AIM shares is one step nearer to taking the company private.
General info: If you use Lloyds or Halifax and hold VRP shares, you don't have to do anything. They will simply convert them to VRNA ADS units and put them in your trading account. this starts on the 19th October. Shares are consolidated 8:1 to the ADS units. Any odd quantities of shares (i.e. not multiples of 8) will be refunded as cash. It took Halifax too long, but they got there in the end.
I'm not going to bother with VRNA. I think it's all just too dodgy. To me it represents an aggressive move by a private equity business to take all the IP within the old UK Verona business out of the public markets. In the process they have forced UK private investors to liquidate loses accrued to date.
Hi BoPulist and all other interested parties, I've just finished talking to Lloyds/Halifax. It was a very good conference call with a member of Corporate Actions and a member of the customer services team. The headline news is as BoPulist said you can't hold the ADS (VRNA) in an ISA. This is because the underlying shares are no longer traded on ANY recognised exchange. This is why they have lost ISA qualification. The VRP (CREST/AIM) most of us hold is the actual share, VRNA is just a package of 8 of them. It looks like the shares themselves can only be traded privately after the 16th. Nasty!
Hi BoPulist, HMRC/Govt Tax Policy defines what can be held in an ISA. It really isn't within Halifax or any other broker's remit. However they can decide which shares they make available on their trading platform. So once having decided to convert VRP to VRNA, they then have to comply with UK legislation and allow their customers to hold VRNA in an ISA.
Lloyds Direct investments (i.e. Halifax with a Lloyds badge) are ringing me tomorrow morning to talk about VRP delisting, and I'll check the ISA situation with them. I'll report back as well. Having said that I wouldn't be surprised if we get contradictory responses!
Hi BoPulist, if a stock is eligible for an ISA that's all there is to it. Halifax can't legally convert VRP shares to VRNA shares then force you to hold them in a trading account. I would push the point with them and speak to someone in authority.
BoPilist - VRNA does qualify for an ISA. It's an ADS - American Depository Share. Go go the gov.uk site. https://www.gov.uk/guidance/stocks-and-shares-investments-for-isa-managers#qualifying-investments-for-stocks-and-shares-isas
I spoke to Lloyds at 4:30 this afternoon. It sounds like Corporate Actions are being really inefficient and the call centre teams are giving clients slightly different answers.
I've contacted Lloyds/Halifax three times about this so far. They have confirmed they can't trade VRNA at the moment because the stock doesn't meet their eligibility criteria. My guess is this means insufficient liquidity/volume. They also said Corporate Actions are still working on a response for all VRP holders on their platform (that's Lloyds and Halifax). This will be published early next week. They might have to go back on their decision not to allow clients to buy/sell VRNA. Otherwise their message is going to be sell your shares while they are still tradeable, which isn't a great message from them. We'll have to see what happens.
Tomsk2020. Talk to ii if your current broker can't handle the transaction. I used to be with TDW and moved to Lloyds when ii took over. I held quite a few certificates back then. I believe ii still use the old TDW platform with all it's overseas markets capabilities.