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What I don't get about the broker price targets here ...on current free cashflow trajectory by the end of 2025 the MCAP will be lower than the cash on hand...so how exactly can they justify these stupid prices? I really am completely lost as to what is going on here with the valuation
M007j your comments in the feel value discount here are sound and I agree..this is spectacularly cheap now and can't last in the market at this price, will be taken out ASAP IMO
Biotechs and pharma companies get shorted all the time for all sorts of reasons, just like any other sector. Welcome to a free market. No point getting emotional about it.
Jupiter shorted Avacta back in 2022 - an anti cancer company during its preclinical stages and at its most vulnerable- utterly abhorrent. I hope these get f|_|ucking destroyed.
Consolidation seems inevitable across the industry, there are too many small to medium sized managers chasing a diminishing (in real terms) amount of funds. Jupiter has looked excellent value for ages now but not surprised it keeps falling when the sector is so bearish.
I like the stock and do think they're doing pretty much all they can, but my concern is about lack of demand recovery. Passive over active continues to gather momentum, UK stocks remained unloved, meanwhile UK retail investors are still not buying enough equities. Jupiter have no control over any of these factors, but the impact they've had over its long term outlook have been a bit of a disaster to the company.
Glimmer of hope is prospect of interest rates cuts switching things up again.
There is a lot of talk about consolidation within the sector...a Takeover by anyone else within the sector would probably mean some of the staff and BOD would no longer be needed ....a takeover being for the reason to create cost saving synergies ...and probably us more AI systems etc
The goodwill impairment announced today that will come in the EOY Results .... well that now puts into question the real value of the business ....and if you are going to sell now...I doubt they would get the best price .....they may prefer to wait to see if the economies get better and the investment outlook improves
The forthcoming impairments are probably the best part of the SP drop today, being that the turnover results were weak but much as expected ..especially when not knowing exactly how much impairments there will actually be
Thanks so maybe it might finally happen. If one of their top fund managers is. Leaving they clearly need a good shake up
Highest two holdings I can find are:
Silchester International Investors LLP 19.5% 101,567,653 shares
TA Associates Management, L.P. 16.1% 84,115,278 shares
Next highest is just 6.21%.
I posted this a few months ago. There are loads of articles from 2021 and 2022, surely now it’s going to happen
https://www.standard.co.uk/business/corporate-britain-sainsbury-private-equity-us-b1074674.html
This was tipped as a takeover target last year for its clients, I wonder if it’s a sitting duck now. Going to check out shareholder base to see if there is anyone holding 20% who could block such a move
I've bought in today at just a tad over 73p. Just dipped my toe in to start with, but I've been following this for a while and think either management will have to turn this around or it will be bought up at a higher price than this. Fingers crossed this will turn out to be one of those rare occasions where I actually bought at the bottom!
Down 15% in one day, compounding the year-on-year decline that has decimated this SP. What's the turn around plan? I would normally take today as an opportunity to average down, but not at the moment. It feels like a falling knife.
Yes nothing , one of my worst performers this one , hopefully things turn around soon !!
Poor trading update this morning. No mention of cash position or divi consequences.
Hi Kingfisher. Dividend policy here has already been revised, so the yield will be c3% by my reckoning. AuM outflows are slowing, so perhaps a good sign. A takeover seems improbable until we see a rise in price, and increase in performance and a further simplification of the business. I am a long term holder, but remain neutral on the prospects here.
There were rumours that jup were prime for take over a year or so , does anyone think this could still be the case and what a fair valuation per share be ?
The Jupiter EBITDA multiple 1.4x (which I also agree with) is incredibly low. Here are rival valuations
Ashmore - 8.4x
Schroders - 9.9x
Liontrust - 3.7x
Polar Capital - 7.5x
Premier Miton - 4.8x
Also by Barclays estimation, Jupiter will generate free cash flow of £79m for 2023 and £77m in 2024. That is a total of £156m. This means by the end of 2024, Jupiter will have net cash of £430m vs a market cap today of £471m. That is an enterprise value of £41m for a company that generates around £75m of cash annually.
Haven't made up my mind about JUP. There are some reasons to be interested:
1. Good brand name. Potential M&A target presumably.
2. Share price well down from highs.
3. Dividend yield of 9.4% (based upon 2022 actual dividends, including special).
4. PE ratio at reasonable levels, around 10x.
5. Low EV: EBITDA, 1.4x according to my calculations.
6. Strong net cash & investments position (£353m as of June 30, 2023).
7. AUM of £50.8b, of which the institutional element has grown recently.
But my concerns are as follows:
1. Recent AUM outflows (let's see if this trend has reversed in Q4 2023).
2. Consequent decline of top line revenues from 2021 peaks.
3. Net management fee % decline.
4. Compensation ratio up.
5. Potential drop in the dividend.
The challenge for management is to grow AUM + keep the management fee levels up + keep staff costs under control + keep costs under control in general + manage client assets superbly (naturally). Can management do this? Recent share price declines are probably justified as this isn't the company it was in 2019-2021.
Shall I buy at around £0.90?
I sincerely hope this continues to rise and that MAN Group GLG partners lose a shed load on their short.
I'd have said both was a good option but I think that re-rate by Cannacord is going to punish JUP's SP once the fervour over the rates subsides. 70p target seems completely ridiculous but probably another factor to create some short term SP challenge here.
Hi Josey ..if I was you , I would put your money in Jupiter instead
JG … nothings happened. Just like the drop to 54p last week over at MCG. Nice opportunity to top up…hopefully!
No debt, sustainable revenue model, divi.
The drop in fees just aligns to asset management industry right now. Changes as cash flows back into sector but that’s a while away. Always interesting to see institutional flow increase…they are always first out, first in.
73.90 sell UT
Wtf happened today, is this barclays related ?
Well hello Josey , good to see you on here too . This is one share that I made a lot of money on . Bought for £1.03 back in November , sold for £1.43 in Jan so 40% profit in 2 months ...and now I see it up for sale at 80p and you are right it sounds like a steal and it probably is
Can't stop reading Florence 141414 post on 17th October though, when he pointed out that staff now account for 47% of fee income whereas previously It was 41% they performed very poorly and have now been rewarded even more highly for it ! ...also fee structure has reduced
Florence's conclusion was good for staff , good for clients , bad for shareholders , is a comment which is haunting me at the moment and preventing me from investing right now ...also and I know it's historic but October is usually the worst month for shares , so tempted to hold off for another two weeks and invest in November .. of course sods law say that it will take off , and I almost took the plunge at 75p and it's already 80p so what to do next is the dilemma ..losing £1 billion in a quarter in AuM sn't a lot , just take a look at the hemorrhaging of funds taking place with Liontrust and you will see what I mean ..
What I don't know though, is the relative performance of each of the fund managers, on the funds they are managing over the past 1, 3 and 5 year timescales ..which quartiles they are in ...if I get time I will check out this over the weekend
What I will say though is that when the share price of a Fund Manager rises despite the markets falling , then that is suggesting some positive momentum ..