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"Silence is golden". wrote that hundreds of times for yapping too much in school - Haha
Very quiet here where is everyone ?
I’m not in my wife’s good books . She complains I get more excited thinking about Jog than her !.
What is your agenda ? too much time on your hands so feel obliged to just post negativity, or maybe looking to shake the tree for a few cheap shares . All investments are a gamble , this is a calculated risk since we know significant oil is there DYOR folks
more lambs to the slaughter...surprised to see money coming in here at this very late stage.
It helps the gamblers to suggest this is all riding on the budget statement as it buys a few more days to keep the dream alive and allows them a bit longer to hedge their bets.
Silence on AIM is never golden - remember these words!
To expand on your analogy Einbert, the market possibly also sees it as waiting on well results (let's call the well Verbier for the sake of argument) which promises up to 130mb, only for it to turn out it only has 25mb and the main partner (let's call them Station/Equinor) decide to subsequently pull out. Equinor walking away from a 'free' 30% in the GBA if memory serves I guess also doesn't help. As you can most likely sense, I'll be glad when the waiting is over and now thoroughly bored of watching this daily for so far non existent news. It does still feel like a no brainer opportunity for anyone remotely interested in offsetting their tax and should firmly stand on it's own legs even if the tax rebate wasn't on offer and so still looking forward to news, albeit if peering out for it from behind the sofa gla
DU I linked and watched the full video over the weekend, I was in a good mood around 5pm Saturday after my beloved Everton thrashed Brentford 1-0, I even watched MOD without the pi55 wind and waffle that usually accompanies it. For me it made it very clear that the transition away from fossil fuels and the lack of the minerals needed make 2050 a dream, hope you shared it with Greta. Keep posting.
Dick, I agree wholeheartedly with your words " I'm surprised there isn't more excitement ahead of what should be game changing news".
We must be very close to 'game changing' news. Is it, perhaps a bit like waiting for the new of an exploration well where a promising result is expected? Share price often/usually ramps up in such circumstances.
The big difference in this case is that the oil is there and we are waiting for validation of its commerciality.
Soon, I hope!
I was only pulling your leg, everhopeful. Keep the posts coming in - your common sense must be disarming to some...........
I'm surprised there isn't more excitement ahead of what should be game changing news, assuming we're not let down at the last minute. The shares were trading at 350p in October. I can't think the 10% added to the scurrilous EPL makes that much difference. If anything it made JOG's investment case even more compelling to those companies exposed to the full 75%.
jmo
dyor
Well done Walter, or should that be Briggs, or Alexa, or Philip even.
I'm very well.
Oh the IP adresses.
See how long this post lasts.
try again link not working
https://twitter.com/NotScottNewgent/status/1634682798903635970
I avidly wait for your posts Dickupham, my link went straight to the Q&A with the beardy , that link had been posted twice before you did , I am on it !
OT this is I think important to share
Must watch quite an eye opener
Scott Newgent
@NotScottNewgent
Must watch & please give a retweet!
The trans 'Hero' in Matt Walsh's documentary 'What is a woman' silences an entire room of reporters in a live press conference about 'medically transitioning children!"
hTtps://twitter.com/NotScottNewgent/status/1634682798903635970
Morning all. Took some advice from a friend of a friend who works as a Nomad on AIM (not JOGs!). He confirmed they would have to inform the market if the process had stalled, and also that they could not update the market if nothing had changed.
We are in the last week/ weeks of this story. They will be the sweetest.
Morning Joggers Walter Mitty has just topped up another 5000 shares. Hope you are well Fraser ?
If not this week, I guess it will be the events of this week that will be the trigger for the announcement. Presumably they are looking for something (could be positive or negative) from the budget and (I don't know if this is common) have agreement A and Agreement B lined up and the budget will determine which is signed. They still have over 2 weeks after that to announce something. From the tone of the previous RNS they felt at the time that they might be almost ready to pronounce but caution got the better of them. This post is purely based on what I have read on here and trying to make sense of what has happened following thevery upbeat RNS in November.
everhopeful - why is it I suspect you don't find my posts worth reading - eg Fri 18.04hrs?
Nothing more to say here until we know what's been going on behind the scenes.
'It really turned out to be a reality check i would say '
Q&A starts here , whole thing is very good.
https://youtu.be/sgOEGKDVvsg?t=2411
Mills knows his stuff
Agree. The wording of the November RNS surely means a RNS is required either way by the end of March and applying the same approach no RNS to date should mean discussions etc are ongoing.
Just for interest.........note the gravitas (missing) of the bearded freak who supposedly challenges the data presented:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgOEGKDVvsg
If this isn’t announced by end March I think they have to put out an RNS anyway as it’s into uncharted territory given AB’s November advice. It’s the size of this deal that makes it so difficult so there may be more than one party involved. There are other FO deals and asset sales happening but this is a real biggy. I’ve said before it makes much more sense just to take the Company out with eg a £4-6/share offer which is still risky as it’s all cash up front whereas a FO will be some cash and milestones around FDP, FID … first oil etc. Who knows ….when the bell will toll? GLA all it’s a bit squeaky bum
That is a well balanced pov , Sunak showed his true colours when he went back on his fracking promise and introduced heavy taxes pon Oil Cos. He was in case you dont know the Chairman of the WEF. The Tories didn't want him as PM but the NWO did , it really stinks.
The EPL makes this proper boom and bust territory, take the EPL at face value it should turbo charge deal making, if JOG is valued at 400M (I’m an optimist), anyone with tax to pay could acquire it lock stock and barrel for 40M. But, how many people actually have that sort of tax to pay? They big unknOwn is what happens after 2028? Nobody trusts it won’t be removed, hence the Linda Cook position at Harbour, the actual number of deals and farm outs has dropped post the introduction of the tax and we are essentially on a long (or fast) path to oblivion. I’m Not all that hopefull they can address that in the budget, but we need the HC so let’s see. Deltic is also an interesting play on the EPL if you think it will come good and facilitate investment.Next week Rodney.
A few PIs who are in and out of JOG like a whacko mole isn't a 'proper 'market.
JB - the market allowed Warren Buffett to make a fortune by doing the opposite:
"Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy".
The whole point of investing (as far as I am concerned) is to spot opportunities others have missed, with the SP at the point of investing failing to reflect the fundamentals supporting the investment case. A company's share price is only a reflection of the difference in volume between those wanting to buy and those wanting to sell.
Your suggestion that a limited number of small short term traders, who are getting nervous because they see a cliff the SP is going to fall off if a farm out isn't announced by 31 March, are better qualified than any number of longer term investors who have taken the trouble to understand the fundamentals and assess the risks, to judge the present circumstances and act on them (by sitting tight - as I am doing) is, at best, unintelligent. It is certainly meddlesome - as it's clear your loud views aren't backed up by anything of substance.
The judgment call is whether AB was over-optimistic in saying he expected a positive outcome to FO discussions by the end of March. It's about judging an individual. JOG's oil - and its circumstances - won't change that much if the deadline is missed (I'm not expecting this to happen but that's just my take). What would probably happen if it was missed is that the SP would fall significantly - thereby causing a bigger gap to open up between fair value and SP. But it would not be the end of the story (except, perhaps,for AB - others are also no doubt involved in the ongoing highly complex discussions who are eminently qualified to bring matters to a positive conclusion).
Ooooooo............I'm so fwightened............
dyor
Thanks Dickupham. I've re-written this line several times to get it within the bounds of my own tax-understanding....
JOG has previously mentioned tax synergies. If 75% could be rebated on the way in, and previous losses be used on 'the way out' to reduce the non-EPL 40% of total tax, (carried forward from Trap?) that would make deal dynamics better.
https://wp-jerseyoilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2021/03/02230445/CS-RNS-3-March-2021-vF-website.pdf - page 16 on this - that's a lot of tax synergy.