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I share your optimism Einstein . Wishing all LTH good luck !
It’s the square root of 1849 - start of the Californian gold rush.
160x10x0.33/33= 16. is the closest I can get to 43.
Number of barrels X value of oil in ground X retained % / number of shares ( the millions cancel out)
Dick might have to remind me how he gets his £43 per share, with 75% tax rate.
25% in f £43 equals £10.75. That would do right now!
Oil, From an earlier (February)post of mine
“Today we have “hope” value. When the deal is done and the residual percentage held by JOG is known, together with the terms of the deal: cash received, funding requirement and sources , oil resource estimations to be brought on stream from which fields, date of first production etc. analysts will then be able to crank the handle on their models and come up with an estimated value per share. Hopefully it will be close to Dick’s £43 per share.”
£8/£9 a share buyout by Ithaca is My 'wild stab in the dark' guess. That would cost Ithaca just under £300 mil
5 mornings to go for some sort of RNS. I believe that the company would’ve announced by now if some sort of commercial agreement wasn’t going to occur.
So assuming it’s coming, let’s try and work out what we need to value the company.
For starters,
In this environment , any deal is a good deal.
Quality of partner
Cash upfront of does JOG need to raise capital
Percentage JOG keeps of economics
Likelihood of company being acquired going forward
What other metrics?
Let’s work together and be constructive
I do not often post on this board partly because I do not want to say anything that might be interpreted in a negative way. For those who continue to hold in expectation of deal why say anything that undermines the share price?
Tempers seem to be fraying which is perhaps understandable, but there used to be civility on this board and it would be a shame if it descends into a bickering match.
968423 shares !!! nervous tittering
Why post your position when we are all in different boats? If you are a little lord Fonterroy it means nothing
The posts i'd like to read are the ones knowledgeable on the production time lines a farm in might result in . I'd guess JOG and its partner would be 6 years out from big profits?
The UK has to get rid of any Green agenda politician, asking for a miracle but you cant predict what coming. C02 is the gas of life why cant the Gretas see it ?
Oh dear Battery Mr B has been telling you porkies . Well look at the positives . He managed to FO to Statoil . He has astutely used the verbier data to win valuable licenses. He’s developed a wonderful team . Importantly he has skin in the game and has accreditation from ST of IC . I would rather listen to professionals than a seasoned deramper !
My sincerest congratulations on learning to use the filter button.
I am however sorry that you have never explained what it is in my previous post which was factually inaccurate:
Was it that Benitz claimed he was setting up a late life producing assets co.?
Or was it that Benitz has been claiming since 2021 that each year would be JOG s year?
Or was it that Benitz has increased all the salaries despite delivering no share price appreciation? (Try comparing the amount shareholders have put into this co. with the current market cap. You'll find the delivered shareholder value accounts for an almost negligible amount.)
Your comments about my naivity are a little on the rich side from someone who has previously written about losing money in Excite Energy, where all RNS info was wonderful, until it wasn't! But let's trust the co. RNS newsflow because that's never been misleading in the past.
As for having a grudge against Benitz, that's a rather silly comment to make. I invest my money in his company and I expect him to behave like a professional- emails to investors more interested in getting them to rent his villa in Spain than discussing the co. don't fit that profile for me.
Re target price £8 - JOG's Blls are now valued at just 50p ( someone posted ) by the market then £8 sounds a bit low. No F in deal and 50p is probably right?
As I see no point in prolonging communications that are of no worth to JOG holders, I have reluctantly applied the filter to your posts. It is rare for me to do this.
"aggressive doubt" eh?............a new one on me, but I quite like it, so maybe I have learned something from you after all.
If your statement about him not telling me anything complicated is true, then why the aggressive doubt that he said it? To paraphrase your comments 'I find it incredible that your broker would dare tell you something so incredibly reasonable to deduce as this.' Yes I do find it easier to use the same brokers who have completed trades for my family for many decades now rather than an internet firm which charges almost the same, can turn around and void a trade the next day with little liability, and will lend out my shares to be shorted thereby using my own holdings against my interests as a shareholder. And if you don't believe such things are commonplace then I would strongly suggest that you are the one who should grab with both hands the 2.5% post office savings account.
.........you use a broker (?) and he said what you claim he did? Really? I don't think he was telling you anything particularly complicated. It was reasonable to assume the intended placing price was 210p - this was the exercise price of the options awarded to JOG personnel after the placing was completed. It had been acknowledged a week or so earlier there'd been a leak. But I very much doubt it was the result of JOG failing to get potential institutional investors to sign NDAs that led to it (or them). Others are always involved in an event like a placing. Plain dishonesty on the part of someone who'd been made an insider was most likely the cause of the leak, which undoubtedly cost shareholders dear as a result of unnecessary dilution.
Your unsubstatiated allegations of incompetence on the part of the CEO (against whom you appear to have a grudge) do you little credit and imv there is no place for such allegations on an open forum such as this. For all anyone knows, JOG's CEO might have been working unceasingly for months to deliver a result that everything pointed towards being capable of achievent within days or weeks of 29 November. Who knows what events transpired after the RNS was issued? Of more relevance, however, is the fact that we haven't reached the end of Q1 yet, so there's still time to deliver what was (as good as) promised. The implications for the CEO of there not being a positive announcement by next Friday don't need to be explained.
Just as you prefer to trust your leaky broker to anyone posting on a blog like this, so most people probably prefer the opinions of three reputable analysts from different brokers who cover JOG, plus the considered views of Simon Thompson of IC, who has a big following for well-documented reasons. All four confidently expect JOG to complete a Farm Out in the near term and have target prices set in the range £6 to £8 in the event it does.
Reference dumping shares in the market, have you considered the possibility the now departed COO has retained his holding because he believes it will produce impressive returns for him in the future?
Fwiw, I sold out ages ago and am now with the Woolwich...............
https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=we%27re+with+the+woolwich+advert&rlz=1C2CHBF_en-GBGB985GB1009&newwindow=1&sxsrf=AJOqlzU0GIoV3rGNREIGSmIobe4A2jlFHQ%3A1679589279745&source=hp&ei=n38cZIqmK-HE8gKCzoCYDA&iflsig=AK50M_UAAAAAZByNr7roR8djHGZgyAI6YGI3z9I3giAl&oq=we%27re+with+the+woolwich&gs_lcp=Cgdnd3Mtd2l6EAEYADIFCAAQgAQyBQgAEIYDMgUIABCGAzoLCAAQgAQQsQMQgwE6CwguEIAEELEDEIMBOhEILhCABBCxAxCDARDHARDRAzoLCC4QgAQQxwEQ0QM6DgguEIAEELEDEMcBENEDOgsILhDUAhCxAxCABDoLCC4QgAQQsQMQ1AI6CAguEIAEELEDOggILhCABBDUAjoICAAQgAQQsQM6DgguEIAEELEDEIMBENQCOggIABCxAxCDAToICC4QsQMQgAQ6BQguEIAEOgsILhCvARDHARCABDoLCC4QgAQQxwEQrwE6BwgAEIAEEAo6BggAEBYQHjoICAAQFhAeEApQAFiaOWDYVWgAcAB4AIABjQSIAfMdkgELOS44LjMuMS4xLjGYAQCgAQE&sclient=gws-wiz#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:96ff2102,vid:NQAiZvDMWiU
dyor
I have some Serica shares. Although I worry a little that they're so gas dependent. It was interesting to see their deal to buy oil production recently, but I think personally that they over-paid. Longboat is also very interesting, and priced for complete failure, which is hard to understand when they are about to sell some assets next Q for a cash injection likely to be double the current market cap.
One thing I may add, the delay thus far may have been a blessing in disguise for me.
I would have probably bought into the following shares with any gains from the JOG deal.
Longboat Energy - liked the Management from Faroe - price roughly 80 p, now trading at 8.5p.
Pantheon Resources - looked at them at 80 p - then went to 120 p roughly - now trading around 25 p.
Orcadian Energy - looked at them about 28 p - now trading at 8 p.
Serica - did okay out of them over time, but would probably have bought in around high 200's - 280 - 290 p - now 220 p.
In short, I've probably been quite lucky.
Also, I am absolutely hopeless at picking winners!!.
Hopefully, JOG bucks that trend.
Thank you for the concern for my financial well-being, Dick. I suppose your question re. failure to sell shares at the previous highs could be applied to most on here - if they are so good at this aim oil company investing, why did they not all sell out at the high? The reality is that it fits neatly into why a former director did not sell his holding once he got booted from the co. And the answer is that the previous highs have involved the sale and purchase of a tiny fraction of the company's outstanding shares, there has never been an opportunity to sell huge quantities of JOG shares at such prices. With such small volumes traded most days the prices reflect what a few small trades were done at, not an opportunity to transact a large quantity of shares. It is why I am constantly frustrated that the small trades by people with little understanding of markets determines the supposed value of the entire co. As for being an unpleasant post, I would be happy for you to counter my statements if you believe they are factually inaccurate, failing which can I just presume that you simply don't like to be told the plain truth and prefer the fantasies predicted by your crystal ball? Incidentally, it was my broker who told me that Benitz bungled the placement situation and that a deal was originally planned above £2. I would trust his input on such things more than a comment from a poster on this board, without intending any offence.
Re-post of a message from February - still holds true. So does my shareholding - maybe more fool me!
Certainly meaning.
"without doubt"
Certainly usually means 'without doubt' or 'definitely', and is used to show that you strongly believe something or to emphasize that something is really true
If you believe JAB, 6 days till a deal and a possible (double your money plus, hopefully).
If you don't. 6 days to jump and stop a possible 50% drop on your present investment value).
LTH - can't see any jumping after all this time.
Newbies, gamblers, how lucky do they feel? Could be quite a big buck payback in a short space of time.
OR JAB could be working on his "Excuse" RNS - would need yo be a good one.
Credibility on the line and the humble pie section in the local ALDI could be set to do a roaring trade.
Why does he bother posting . Does he really care , well the answer is yes . He wants the price to fall so that he can get his ugly greedy hands over them . My advice sit tight. Hold tight , once news lands these will rocket .
So grateful that we have Mr Briggs looking after shareholder interests . Question is why is he constantly attacking this company ?
Possible Answers
Personal grievance
Shorting stock
Trying to push nervous shareholders to sell so can buy..,
BM - that's a pretty unpleasant post, not much of it supported by an evident understanding of how difficult and unpredictable it can be to run a junior oil co with very limited resources and a lot of outside factors to feed into the mix.
I've got used to putting up with the unsubstantiated nonsense peddled by JB, whenever there's a spark of life in the SP, but I'd have expected a bit more from you, given you're long in the shares and claim to have been around since the outset. This begs the question: why didn't you sell when the shares were near enough twice today's SP - which they have been on two or three occasions over the years?
Your comment about AB "failing to get signed disclosuresahead of the last fundraise" reveals a naivety that's generates a degree of sympathy for you finding yourself in water that's a bit too deep for your comfort. Are you sure you're cut out for this game (ie investing in oil juniors on AIM)? Do you not think you'd be wise putting your money into a Post Office savings account? I understand they're paying more than 2.5% in interest, which isn't to be sniffed at in these straitened times and there's no risk involved.
dyor
Everyone is entitled to their opinion . However , if what you’re saying is true then why has RL continued to hold his shares . When he got ousted he would have been the first one to sell up . In any event the ex Ithaca team wouldn’t put their name against a bum investment , so your opinion doesn’t match up . Are you sure your not Briggs ??
I disagree on the shareprice not moving on FO news, we've seen it double in October in a short space on no news so something tangible I think could drive a re-rating. At the moment JOG has a licence for a relatively significant asset but with no means of delivering it, the FO should at least confirm a credible delivery partner and the residual proportion of the asset JOG will continue to own, even if the timescales remain fuzzy they're 2 big current unknowns that if answered would remove a large chunk of the speculative element of the stock in my view. All that of course on the assumption a FO is signed which if it isn't then I'm sure it will have an equal affect in the opposite direction GLA
It isn't too often that I find myself agreeing with you, JB, but on all of this I must say I am inclined to agree:
Aim investors always seem to completely ignore caveats about things not being done til they're done;
Bungling Benitz has certainly managed to screw things up in the past, from his 2021/2/3 Year of JOG claims (boy who cried wolf?) through to failing to get signed disclosures ahead of the last fundraise which resulted in the placing getting away at a much lower price than intended;
The Vernier debacle seems to have completely passed some by vis a vis Benitz's credibility, which I would agree is pretty low these days if not completely non-existant.
Assuming this eventually gets a farm out, what will be next? JAB awarding himself huge pay rises for delivering shareholder value, even if the sp continues to languish? I see no reason for the sp to double or triple on news of a farm out as it will simply result in many years of delays waiting for revenue to arrive during which time I expect the leaders here will have milked most of the cash out of the company in ever higher salaries.
So much for those of us who bought into a company which was going to pick up cheap late life production assets, JOG hasn't produced a single barrel of oil in all the years I've owned my shares. Yet another Benitzism, which seems to be rapidly becoming a synonym for liar.