The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Edzi,
Yes gone a bit quiet with Droslovka but Roan and the modules with IRH are taking preference it would seem. However it would be good to get improvements in the tailings processing.
Agree being conservative. I am always conservative and I would be disappointed if we don't hit $100 mill gross next year as a minimum.
The margin on chrome could be pivotal as well. I have it down as $30-$35/ton gross margin others have suggested it could be higher. I will be looking at the second half of this year chrome margin to see what it comes in at.
Gray1
Hi, I'm trying my best to be quite conservative with my numbers to tell you the truth.
Of course everything stands on the price of metals but if you believe what is being written, not only on Copper but on PGM's then the figures could be better. I am also trusting that the Chrome price will be roughly where it is now, however next year JLP should be producing much more chrome that will produce a better bottom line. It is interesting to hear that the Copper Oxide get's a premium price and I have no idea how much sulphide can be produced. I am also keen to hear what is going on with JLP and Gronovska, as that will not only create a new revenue stream but it will show the market that we can produce in an area that others struggle with. Keep the posts going it's always interesting to have a good conversation Regards
I agree with your numbers for next year Edzi. I have pgms and chrome on their own coming in at between $65 mill and $78 mill gross. Add in 12k of copper only at $3k gross margin and you have $100 mill gross profit minimum.
JLP have put everything in place just need to deliver on copper the other two are pretty much established and chrome still growing.
heroric
i don't know what your stressing about, although our copper production is very low, we are producing. so saying we're not producing is going to get you some flak as your statement is not true. we also are at the tipping point of producing and copper if you believe goldman and others is going to go from strength to strength. it is apparently over 10k now and going higher so we or rather jlp through loads of **** ups have timed it perfectly. if in the next f/y we produce 10k of oxide copper on our own and 6k of copper with irh on top of chrome and pgm's together with sulphide copper.
you are talking about a gross profit well over $100m. then the following year you could double that. if you look at that scenario then jlp would be worth over 30p per share if it was sold. is this the reason why they have got a new broker ?
or is it because of chambisi? why would they need a new broker for chambisi? or is it a full float which should or would be very sensible.
I don't think copper price is anywhere near "bubble like" Heroric. We are nowhere near the top and that might well not come until 2025 so plenty of time to take advantage of the rise.
I think the Roast boys seemed to confuse/conflate a couple of the JLP projects during their brief discussions on the Sunday episode. Certainly sounds like they went to the s**g project at Mufulira which is good as we should be expecting some news on the development plan shortly!
Looking forward to the Zambia special as well as should give some broader context to the region and mining activities.
ATB
Northern
I agree Heroric the benefit of higher price of copper producing 1k tonnes per month is far better than 300 tonnes per month for JLP to take advantage of but that isn't how your original post came across stating producing no copper and that triggered some of the more robust responses to you.
Anyway just for Ardbeggar
Cmon Roan.
For the record, I added early last week, but copper peak needs to come when we are producing (properly) not before in order to see and enjoy sustained gains from JLP making real hard cash.
Iām just hoping this is the precursor to a much stronger rerate on Roan news and 2025 targets!
The point I am making is that JLPs delays mean it is missing out on record prices. Sorry but the small amounts sporadically produced to date dont float my boat. I have just wateched the cocoa price spike burst and copper looks bubble like too. JLP need to be up and running to benefit, this is my frustration. Current price peaks mean very little until they do.
8p paid .....
Cmon Roan.
Jonah,
$4K gross margin per ton may be a little high at the moment.
The first 6 months revenue was $6.7k per ton and costs were $4.5k per ton so gross margin was only $2.2k per ton back then. Copper average price was around $8.4k per ton at the time.
Yes copper price has increased but costs are expected to increase. JLPs revenue per ton reported is $1.7k per ton less than the price of copper at the time if that continues to be the same then a gross margin of $3K maybe nearer the mark.
As Roan builds up speed we will get a better idea of revenue and costs and copper price increasing can only help all looks good though.
Good morning everyone.
Heroric it is incorrect to say they aren't producing any copper.
At some points they wont be at other points they will be but overall they are at a consistent volume of around 300 tons per month no it isn't high production yet and it may be a couple of months before they hit those higher targets but that is what we are all waiting for.
Heroric,
Your over exaggeration means the point you rely on is missed. JLP are producing copper (the 300mt per month) but this IS less than we had hoped for with the full Roan upgrade.
I cant believe you doubled down on the no copper missive when corrected - either qualify your post or I will report as it clearly mistates the position here.
We are producing 300 metric tonnes of copper per month. Taking a pessimistic all in production cost of $6000 per tonne that equates to an earnings of $4000 per tonne or $1.2 M per month which is more than we are earning from PGMs I suspect (though the basket price is creeping up, so that comparison may be wrong). In any event, it is certainly not trivial.
Full ask being paid for some chunky trades..... looks good.
METALS ā Copper back up above $10,000/T on Fed rate cut hopes
05:55
May 7 (Reuters) ā Copper prices in London rose above a key resistance level of $10,000 a metric ton on Tuesday, buoyed by renewed hopes for U.S. interest rate cuts this year.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose 1.5% to $10,061.50 a ton by 0415 GMT, while the most-traded June copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) was nearly flat at 80,920 yuan ($11,213.35) a ton, hovering near the record high of 82,460 yuan. ...... A softer-than-expected U.S. labor market report on Friday led traders to revive bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve would ease monetary policy as early as September.
Lower interest rates could lift metals demand by boosting economic growth. They could also lead to a softer dollar, making greenback-priced metals cheaper to holders of other currencies. ...... Last month, top consumer China announced subsidies for scrapping old cars in exchange for new ones to boost car sales, especially for electric vehicles, which consume nickel in their batteries. And of course COPPER....
Copper gone back above $10000 on that news.
Goldman Sachs say $12K copper end of this year and $15k next year!
https://www.forexlive.com/news/why-goldman-sachs-boosted-its-copper-forecast-to-12000-from-10000ton-20240506/
JLPpositive
I believe you have hit the nail on it's head.It can only be the reasons for the closure
Thanks JLPositive.
Its does seem to put a floor under the price since even at these elevated chrome prices Glencore still choose not use the Rustenburg smelter. I'm guessing the prices still need to go up even higher for the Rustenburg smelter to go online?
@Happydays
Dorfan would probably have a better answer, but having been a shareholder in Merafe, the Rustenburg smelters are the ones which Merafe built, prior to the JV with Glencore.
Glencore's original sites were located in the Steelpoort, Burgerfort region and were newer and less costly to run. The Lion II project was built even later in the Steelpoort, Burgerfort region and use significantly less energy than the Rustenburg area. It would makes sense for the JV to keep the Rustenburg smelters mothballed and utiise all the smelters in the Steelpoort region to produce the ferrochrome they market and keep the price at a level where they can make money.
Historically the cost of labour is higher too on the Rustenburg side as that is home to the majority of Platinum players in the market, who command (demand) higher salaries too,
Hope this makes sense and help a bit.
GLA & DYOR
The article also says chrome prices are up again this quarter :).
With Thutse coming online soon we could really take off.
Would that mean Chrome prices should remain elevated?
Looks like Jubilee could gain the monopoly if we producing at a much lower cost than our competitors.