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Sumoskier, it is not really delays that make me negative, more so I believe as shareholders we get miss-led, are told things that are not realistic or just plain untrue. As a result, especially those previously burnt increasingly take what JLP say with a pinch of salt and I think that shows in the share price not really ticking up as it maybe it would have - added to never ending dubious warrants issues and dilutions watering down peoples investments. If and when JLP do finally deliver, sp will no doubt respond, BUT think value will remain on lower end of the range for the above reasons. I am currently almost totally out as I am fed up of waiting while missing out elsewhere in safer bluechips (eg even Lloyds has done me very well recently). I am still here watching ans prepared to jump in should they get it together, but its delayed again and 6 weeks is a long time for an investment to sit doing nothing in the current climate.
Ultimately JLP simply has to deliver on what it says. Start producing reasonable amounts of Copper at good margin. Any rise in the Copper price is secondary? Investors are largely negative on promises after so many delays hence the low SP?
Hi Prof and all LTH
I feel very much as you do.There are many pluses but there are minuses which you have listed
I agree with you about risks of doing business in African countries .I believe Zambia have a stable pro business government but that South Africa under it's ANC government is a failed state which hopefully if the population wakes up to the corruption will change next month but I am not that optimistic. However both country's have a common goal which is to create jobs and earn foreign currency and they need Jubilee as much as Jubilee needs them.
After all Jubilee will be responsible for doing both but in addition is performing a clean up job in both countries which is much needed so I dismiss any problems relating to location. I have taken the view that sanity by both governments will prevail.
So we are back to prices of key metals and the ability by Jubilee to produce copper as promised.
Having been in the chrome business I agree that chrome prices are unpredictable but with China and India needing a huge amount of stainless steel the prices should at least stay constant for a while. Of course I hope that Leon can increase profit margins Jubilee will be getting on chrome and history to date seems to suggest he can.
I am more positive than negative on copper which will be needed world wide and I have little doubt that copper prices are more likely to go up than down, and furthermore I believe with PGM'S prices are more likely to recover than to retreat .So we are back to my main concern which is can Jubilee produce copper as promised..All I can say about this is on evidence to date,with the new J/V and Slater increasing his holding in the company copper is likely to become the biggest producer of revenue by year end 2025.
As you can see I am bullish on future prospects for Jubilee.
Hi Dorfan,
Agreed that is a key factor however there is also geo-political risk, copper prices and chrome prices. I don't say PGM prices as they are so low that I feel they can only go up. Having said I am pretty confident based on what I am reading that copper will move up and chrome should at least stay steady. Geo-political will stop me going up to a large percentage of my portfolio but I am ok enough with it to buy some more.
As to can we produce the copper - yes but when is the key question given the endless delays. I think we are probably to the back end of our waiting but then again it seems to be one thing after another even when we seem to have a clear road ahead.
Apologies that I am playing my mental musings out loud. I think I am convincing myself that I should buy some more!
Best wishes,
Prof
Hi Gray1. Ive bought and sold lots of times over a 15 year period. Recently bought at 5p and sold at 6p when it was pumped. Bought again about 5.5p and sold at 7.35p. Sold because of my personal circumstances but the yearly chart looked poor at that time.
Waiting for things to change on the home front before I get back in. Want to buy and hold until the middle of next year when I'll review it. Not worried about not being in at the moment. Can't see any rush to be in as things stand. Of course positive surprises can come along. JLP is more of a distraction for me at the moment but all being well I intend to come back in with double what I had in before, I'm that confident, but also realistic. Good luck to all holders, if I get left behind it's no problem in the grand scheme of things. Don't think it will happen though.
Sorry Frog, you are correct. I meant reliably ramping copper production up to the significant volumes stated. There remains a lot still to prove imo.
Hi Mr Gray, yes I have accumulated quite a few over 15 years or more
Frog
You are a big shareholder here frogkid? Kalan you waiting to get in?
They don't want to get it Gray1.
They just don't get it Kalan.
Accept your point Northern. If JLP borrowed capital to invest in capital projects then no problem. When they raise it from shareholders it's not quite the same in my book. There is zero doubt in my mind that JLP did the placing when they did because they were running out of cash due to capital expenditure on Thutse and Roan. IMO they are spending more than they are getting in right now and are robbing Peter to pay Paul (love these old sayings). By that I mean using the money from the placing to finish Roan - even the parts officially allocated for advanced waste rock purchasers. It will be a while before we get the financials to prove I'm right. But I'm quietly confident.
It's no biggy in the long run but the over run is costing money.
When money comes out of the same pot, it's expenditure, spend more than is coming in, it's cash flowing out (net), the accountant labelling part of it capex doesn't change that unless he gets extra money in and we all know where JLP get the extra money from when needed.
Not playing any games - just saying it as it is - can't see why people have a problem with that.
Anyway- great investment this - from RNS, expecting Roan running by end of May/ mid June, fingers crossed and production to be higher than where it is now by end of June, with nameplate production by mid to end of July. Based on what the RNS said.
It was mentioned in the RNS and it didn't state it was for the advancement of specific projects it just said and I quote for "general working capital purposes". They needed it they took advantage of the placing to cover it and raised it.
Some businesses do it with a loan some have enough cash flow to cover and some do a placing JLP chose a placing no big deal they were honest about it don't know why others are trying to make out they didn't have a short term cash flow problem. JLP have clearly acknowledged it and moved on.
Pretty sure working capital was mentioned in the RNS SeisNav? I'm too lazy to look.
@heroric, to suggest the Cu will not appear makes no sense, we already produce it!
They didn’t do a placing to raise “working capital” it was to advance the specific projects that were in the proposed placing RNS. The placing was oversubscribed so they raised more than planned. What company is going to turn down extra cash at a time when they are trying to grow the business? It doesn’t follow that they needed that extra cash for a cash flow problem. Unless of course you think Leon was lying about the reasons for the placing. Kalan obviously does as he’s said as much.
Gray1 there are increasingly some good (and returning long term) posters on here now with much needed open discussion also taking account the traits of JLP - and their input is very much appreciated and valued. Please dont be put off posting and asking the hard questions.
The only way we win here is to be very careful, scratching below the surface. Ignore anyone saying its a no brainer or a certainty. Its absoutely not and JLP have a loonng history in which I have won and lost. We are here in hope, currently I am currently mostly out though annoyingly bought a few literally the day brefore the last RNS. I ve since sold a few of those at loss as I fear this may drop further during this latest delay. The big question is - will they ever deliver the copper? - they have a lot to prove and at the moment imo are not doing a great job of proving it. Lets hope they do but I am applying an abundance of caution and question everything and do not buy into it being a "no brainer", "certainty" etc.
Ard Begger says below that IRH have entered a binding agreement with JLP. Much as Id like that deal to be done, I am not confident that is the case as it has not been definately stated as we had expected to hear. What was actually said in the RNS I felt was vauge/coy leaving room for doubt and interpretation. Have they put money in yet? who knows? - that is the joy of JLP
Working capital is working capital shuvlin however you want to dress it up and the business didn't have enough in it to cover ongoing and new operations yet to come on line just accept it. What's with the agenda? Is it so unreasonable to you what I have posted about? It's not that contentious happens in business all the time.
There will be a time lag in spending working capital to process the rocks to turn it into copper before they realise any cash coming in from that process.
Jlp realised there may be a short term cash flow problem so raised extra for working capital therefore the cash flow in the business at the time probably wasn't enough to offset this position so would have been temporarily negative.
They have covered this good business decision nothing wrong in accepting this JLP have. Chrome cashflow will improve this.
Depends on what you mean by General working capital, obviously the new equipment will have working capital needs as it is prepared for operation so that is over and above what is required for current operations. You are jumping to conclusions which fit your agenda perhaps?
An increasing requirement for working capital to fuel growth is synonymous with an expanding company; it signifies nothing. But as Northern rightly states, in terms of current operations the company is cashflow positive..
· For general working capital purposes.
Taken from the last placing RNS so some of that money was expected to be used as they anticipated a potential cash flow issue.
This would suggest there was a potential short term cash flow issue which Kalan highlighted and according to JLP there was whilst they advanced the module process which they also raised money for.
There was a temporary working capital cash flow issue JLP said so why deny it? Hopefully we have seen the last of it and cash from the chrome process will offset any possible further short term issues whilst we wait for the Copper ramp up.
Thanks for highlighting it, Northern. Its the same basis on which BT used to claim that profit re-invested is not a profit because it isn't sitting in the bank or being distributed to shareholders.
Kalan,
I am one for balance in views up and down. I think the challenge some people have is how language is used.
For example you talk about cash flow and "in the medium term turn truly cash flow positive".
Lets be clear on an operational level JLP is cash flow positive. JLP is currently choosing to invest in capital expenditure to further develop the business. The FD has a view on the timings of cashflows and also the facilities available to the company and will manage this accordingly. Your use of language may lead the uninitiated to believe JLP can't pay their bills which is incorrect.
ATB
Northern
Quoting WHI: "In Zambia at the upgraded Roan concentrator Jubilee is still frustratingly waiting for the electrical
installation to be complete – now delaying start-up of the new full new front-end until May. Once commissioned Roan should be in a position to supply 13kt/yr of copper in concentrates. That said, in the quarter JUBILEE INKED THE CONTRACT WITH IRH (Abu Dhabi based) to develop the ‘waste rock’ project. This ground-breaking project should see the JV
(30% Jubilee) process 2.4Mt/yr to produce ~20kt of copper within 2 years from four modules processing a part of the 260Mt of copper-bearing material at surface identified. A resource drilling program will define fully the parameters of the plants and their optimal location."
P.s. can't see IRH signing on the bottom line until it's proven to work at Roan, but then I don't know them like I know JLP so could easily be wrong.
The long term prospects are excellent. the medium term should see JLP turn truly cash flow positive. The short term continues to be problematic. I and others have flagged up everything that has happened in advance of it happening. Looking at JLP through a clear lens allows you to read between the lines, focus on the unsaid. Serious question - when will Roan be fully up and running to nameplate. Not the end of March (that was never promised - just start up), not the end of April (this was promised but surely we all knew the electrical components weren't going to magic out of thin air). So when will it be (no date promised this time) - best estimates please. We'll leave will it work to another time.