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Here's some notes I took from the recent interview with Leon. I think I got the most important points but if I missed anything feel free to add it on:
South Africa:
* Current chrome price US$295-305 / tonne. Prices remaining high due to expansion in stainless steel industry (India plan to increase 5x) as well as the problems in South Africa which make getting the product to market more difficult. Also mining costs increasing as miners forced to mine deeper ore, all putting upward pressure on the chrome price.
* Margin on new chrome contract is US$50-80 / tonne (inc PGM component). This is a major step up from previously.
* The two new chrome contracts when fully operational could double current revenue.
* Pure PGM producers earnings down 60-70%, JLP earnings will not be impacted nearly so much.
Zambia:
* Southern copper strategy, processing ROM, mixed oxide/sulphide material previously regarded as too complex to process. Not indicated yet what the recovery margins are but this innovative process could be very significant. Going after the small and medium size miners. Mining through the oxide cap to get to the sulphides has held back a lot of smaller operations from progressing. Should enhance the profitability and potentially even the viability of these type of projects. Galileo’s Luansobe give as an example (CB of course!).
* New Roan front end, which prepares and sorts material prior to chemical extraction, is greatly expanded to accept a wide variety of feedstock, which allows the plant to change feedstock as the seasons change and road transport can become more difficult.
* Front end is modular and further modules can be added to Roan as well as being stand-alone satellite operations at the site of the feedstock for pre-concentration prior to delivery to Roan. Designed to be power light and rapid in deployment.
* Roan will be impacted for ~5 weeks in late September / October then should step up production about 20% from the first module, eventually 8-10 thousand tonnes. Presumably there will be another ramp up but not specifically mentioned. Step-up in production profile expected in H1-H2 comparison.
* Northern copper strategy is specifically targeting copper / cobalt tailings. Large scale semi-commercial pilot plant to be rapidly deployed at Luanshya, up to 500 tonnes / year of copper before scale up to ~25,000 tonne concentrator plants. Mentions going to full scale at both Luanshya and Kitwe after the pilot plant has confirmed small scale results, so 3 plants in total.
* Targeting copper production costs below US$5,500 / tonne (we’ve already seen US$5,200 in H2 FY2022) but with scale that should come down to low US$4000 range.
* Zambian government want the company to go faster and bigger, they see the potential for enhanced copper production and employment. Very supportive and willing to help where necessary.
Patience was selling in the late teens and waiting.... Still waiting
I see LSE price did not follow JSE up but JSE has now followed LSE down.
On a day PGM'S are running and copper is up.
The only explanation is some investors are wary of the messages the company is putting out,and Leon will have to show that the facts translate into a massive increase in earnings.
In the mean time those of us who know that massive growth is on the cards will have to continue to exercise patience
METALS – Copper rises as dollar softens ahead of key US data
04:44
Aug 29 (Reuters) – Copper prices rose on Tuesday, as the dollar weakened ahead of a barrage of crucial U.S. economic data this week, while China's measure to support its stock market also lifted risk sentiment.Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.5% to $8,397.50 per metric ton by 0240 GMT as trading resumed after a long holiday weekend, while the most-traded October copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange edged up 0.2% to 69,070 yuan a ton.
The dollar eased as traders refrained from placing big bets ahead of a slew of U.S. economic data, including the PCE price index on Thursday and the non-farm payrolls report on Friday, that could define the outlook for interest rates. A softer greenback makes the dollar-priced metals more affordable for buyers holding other currencies.
Also helping risk sentiment across financial assets was China's move on Monday to boost its stock market by slashing stamp duty, among other measures. China is the world's biggest metals consumer.
Platinum @ $970 heading back t6o $1,000/oz.
Both SLP and JLP's pgm operations are reliant on the viability of 3rd party chrome operations. In JLP's case no more fitting example than the DCM mess.
“ The current platinum group metals (PGMs) basket price puts 70% of the South African production base at a loss when taking into account replacement capital requirements on top of the working costs.”
“If we overlay the current economic headwinds on the natural depletion profile, we can reasonably expect earlier closure of marginal mines and the potential to delay projects.
“This will potentially lead to a dramatic contraction in mine supply should current prices prevail,” said Dunne during the presentation covered by Mining Weekly.
If palladium prices remain as they are, the Johannesburg Stock Exchange-listed PGMs mining company expects significant pressure on supply and the potential for not insubstantial decline from 2025.
The mainstay of production for rhodium is upper group two reef on the western limb of the Bushveld Complex, where operations are amongst the oldest and highest cost in the industry.
“They are vulnerable to a low price environment. We anticipate lower production into the future even if rhodium prices recover somewhat.
“Supply of PGMs will become increasingly constrained and if the world truly needs these critical and strategic metals, then the markets must incentivise additional supply from here. If this is not the case, the world’s primary PGMs production base will rapidly shrink,” Dunne forecast.
It doesn’t take a genius to see that low cost producers like JLP, SLP and THS will be big winners if this plays out.
Ergo the share performance is.
JLP hasn't sunk like a stone because it was oversold and making bank?
Northam actually make money though.
I only pop in here from time to time to catch up. I can see it’s just become a cess pit of bull. Not worth responding to most of it.
Just filter out. It’s boring to read
Gotreal the person who you refer to could no doubt gain employment in Mr Putin’s “Ministry of Truth” or as a tribute act to Saddam Hussein’s former spokesman Tariq Aziz
Something here for the chartist and fundamentalist. https://invezz.com/news/2023/08/25/jubilee-metals-share-price-risk-reward-favourable/
Personally i think the bounce is going much higher and will continue for at least 24 months on the back of a positive news flow and increased earnings. Good to see this sort of exposure popping up. Onwards and upwards i feel.
Because the person concerned posts outright lies and defames the CEO....and the "facts" aren't relevant if you bothered to read it. Explain how the UNHCR can cancel a licence issued by the Zambian Government... You should be banned from the boards.
Lets hope it continues to rise Dorf. I was reflecting on the progress of Jubilee last night and after being critical of Ollie, i feel there is a definite change in the company. There is no doubt Jubilee is in transition from a small cap to medium cap and i am starting to take comfort in the stewardship of Ollie. Communication is improving, expectations of production becoming clearer. The company structure is being set, with sub committees etc. There is a feel of organisation, ready for the next big expansions. The chrome expansion is huge news for Jubilee, but the Northern Project is simply game changing. I feels Ollie's influence on Leon is starting to show through and complete Leon. Perhaps the mentor that will take Leon to the next level and subsequently Jubilee. Whilst i was very happy with Colin ( after all hes made all this possible ) and it is nice to see him tweeting the Midweek Takeaway, Jubilee is embarking on a whole different level now. The growth over the next 12-24 months is going to be mesmerizing and needs a whole new approach. I am really starting to warm to Ollie and feel he is changing the company from within to give Leon the tools, ability and platform to make this gigantic leap. Which is clearly becoming just another leap on the path to glory. How big can you make this Leon? 2-3 billion tonnes of copper tailings, run of mine galore! People getting very interested again.
Rhodium has also edged up a little
I suggest anyone interested in the remediation of historic tailings reads page 78 of the 2022 Annual Report: "Environmental management and stewardship" which covers the work being done with the World Bank on the Zambia Mining and Environmental Remediation and Improvement Project (ZMERIP).
"Given our technical team’s extensive expertise and knowledge of tailings remediation, we were asked to consult on the
project. During this consultation period, which spanned over two years, we investigated a large number of tailings facilities.
Our analysis focused on the environmental and health risks stemming from these facilities, as well as the commercial
viability of their remediation."
Bjeise
I agree with you what is the point .I filtered him long ago as I a not willing to read the garbage he puts out.
On a different note it appears that my friends in the platinum industry appear to be right with the platinum price moving up nicely
Would have thought the Zambians a nd un would welcome a clean up? Why would they counter that? Bushy is desperate clearly...you will find people like him on most bbs...
I have two simple points
1-I asked Bushy for evidence that the the Kabwe licence had be cancelled over 2 years ago.
The UN letter does not cancel the licence -it simply raises environmental concerns .The Zambia Government reissued the licence shortly before the UN letter -to claim the Kabwe licence has been cancelled is another in a long line of untruths
2-It is unbelievable that Bushy has known about the UN letter for a period of time and then suddenly produced it last night-it has been in the public domain for 2 years -my guess is Bushy posted it as soon as he came across it.
If Bushy is so concerned perhaps he should contacted the company regarding the latest Kabwe position and not solely rely on a letter of over 2 years old
Just filter BUSHY and get on with it
Bushy -thanks for posting that-I would be concerned if the UN had not raised concerns regarding Kabwe.Trouble is after making false claims (2 yesterday) people find it very hard to believe you -the case of the person who cried wolf once too often.The letter has been in the public domain for sometime (2 years ago and has been reported in the press as well)and in my opinion does not affect the company’s other projects going forward unless similar enviromental concerns come to light -I would suggest that the delay in Kabwe is due to searching for a clean up solution that does not impact the environment further (I can not at first sight see any evidence that the Kabwe licence has been revoked by the Zambian Government as you state)Kabwe is one of the most polluted areas in the World due to past mining activities which were not anything to do with Jubilee
Finally I am immune from your personal jibs and have no anger issues and what you,I or anyone else chooses to post here or anyway else. will have no affect what so ever on the future performance or profitability of the company
Material relevant facts backed by the United Nations Human Rights Watch group get deleted from this thread?
Ask yourself why such a morally and financially secure business has people feeling so confident that they manipulate the flow of information to a public message board or just outright attack people?
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://spcommreports.ohchr.org/TMResultsBase/DownLoadPublicCommunicationFile%3FgId%3D26407&ved=2ahUKEwjn2_aI7vWAAxVph_0HHRzdCCw4ChAWegQIDBAB&usg=AOvVaw2PGqb3xixH-a2Hw1uKNSwo
Obviously there are new people reading the board these days. I’d recommend reading this WH Ireland research note if you want to understand more about the company and its operations:
https://jubileemetalsgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/FN-JLP-091221-reissue.pdf
Most of it is still very relevant.
Once again being brief Mamon:
1st point: let's boil it down....you are asking about the technical processes...I am saying it doesn't matter, what matters are the figures. If it matters to you then great, but from an investment angle...I don't care. You might as well ask me about the technical types of claim that Legal and General process instead of looking at the % of claims yoy and the effect on the bottom line. What I'm trying to say is don't fail to see the forest for the trees.
2nd: You missed my point. Again you were focusing on a singular ESG point, I'm saying in relation to competitors they are advantaged in this area. A trust isn't going to remove them from its portfolio because of a single process change. Btw, if you follow the market enough you'll see that most ESG focused trusts are absolute BS anyway and happily have investments in Shell etc.
3rd point...yes of course, agreed entirely, but why state that in this particular case? What is it you think Leon needs to correct?