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Selecta, thank you!
Don’t agree with you, but fair play to you for defending your position
Hi Peltata,
The forecast, that they are maintaining is £32.5M.
So, basically a range of £30M to £35M.
Actually admire your honesty Jonnn. A lot of contributors dish out abuse and misinformation to support an undisclosed short position - you're not like that. I also think Jdw has some weaknesses but for me the strengths outweigh them.
If you have 3 pubs in a city centre, then covid changes peoples work patterns quite dramatically, why keep all 3?
Nope. Sticking to my guns on this one, always prepared to eat some sht, and was well aware when opening a short with these sort of fugazi companies the SP very rarely matches the health of the company. High risk for sure, stops are set.
However, good op to add to the short position off this trading update as eoy, try as the might, they will find it hard to hide the ebit numbers or, specifically with this company, their D/E ratio, which the market will react most to imo.
Sales up 11% when your prices have increased 15% means your sales arent up. Companies like using the LFL sale figures, cus it can mean whatever they want it to. Industry food and beverage cost inflation is at 20% btw.
"We didn't sell those pubs cuz we needed the cash to pay our debts, honest, we just thought the pubs were too close to each other"
So yes, eating a bit right now, but holding. High risk for sure, as aslong as he can keep the core shareholders happy they won't budge. But they might do when the figures don't match the rhetoric.
Also, the ftse up off the back of the banks, plus being down for 3 days, gave this an extra kick. My only decision now is to add to the short rn, or wait til eod tomor. Might miss a golden op depending on u.s core cpi.
For now i'll take the abuse.
Can anyone tell me the profit range expected? The RNS mentions it as meeting market expectations but never actually quotes the number!
The usual simple and clear statement from 'spoons, illustrating a near-complete recovery from the pandemic lows and signs of steady progress since early 2022.
quite what the free cash flow will be is at the mo' anyone's guess because of investment in rationalising the pub estate and whether the CFO (one of the best) can repeat the swaps wizardry.
My estimate is FCF from ops of ~£500mbut how much of that is ploughed back into debt reduction and estate improvement is an unknown.
Happy to hold for an exit above £10.
PS Jonn's stuff is almost entirely discountable, 'spoons are the most reliable investment in the pub space.
How's your short going Jonnn? ;)
Jonnn, not sure what much of that means
The debt will be priced according to the asset class, not each asset
The exec should take credit by their hedging arrangements
Why is cashflow a concern in a business selling in cash and able to lean on the supply chain?
They may well be 'selling higher to less customers', but that is like saying Lidl are increasing their prices
I can’t help but wonder if these are just very cheap due to general market sentiment. The pubs I’ve been in are busy and at some points packed. Roll on the trading update next week on the 11th and I’ll think we’ll have a strong push upward. GLA DYOR
Where to start. They are a great example of a fugazi company, they never need to be profitable, aslong as they keep attracting that investment via growth. Except, when no real growth means that investment tap gets turned off, the SP goes to zero.
Margins crushed. Trade slowing. Minimum wage up 10%. They can't pass their cost increases on fast enough. Trying to sell higher to less customers, hows that gonna go i wonder, on a model designed around the opposite. They have 30 plus sites that they can't sell, but still have to pay the debt on. Everythings hit them at once.
One plus is their accounting. They bump stuff around to try make the balance sheet not look like the steaming pile of excrement it actually is. I'm sure they will try and push their debt out, again, but i'm gonna predict that their lenders may have a few revisions to make. Every site gets a 30/40% haircut, and at the same time we will increase your rate. Hows that sound? Cash flow then becomes a problem. So, only one option, dillution.
Head and Shoulders has formed - expect this to be back below 600 in the coming days and weeks.
But happy to buy my latest slices back for less. ohh, rum old do.
Same industry. Fullers (FSTA.L) update out today. Fullers SP up 5%, JDW SP down 4%.
HSBC raises JD Wetherspoon to 'buy' - price target 940 pence ...
Been great run from under 5 pound, has, it reached is peak 4 now?
It's been a good run but some retrace in inevitable.
When and how far - we don't know.
... but you rarely see a 50% rise in 3 month without some retrace.
.
This is heading for £10. For Tim to say top-end of market expectations, that will include generous accruals for further repairs to keep the profit figure down as much as possible. There is still a lot of debt risk priced-in but this will get released in the run up to and post-final results. IMO
And today!
£8 soon, this is more like it. Cheers!
lol
Good to hear select06, more more , double up
We need a giggle on this site
GL all
@abacus & Jonnie.
Haha, your posts made me smile (which is more than this share has!)
'at least round here'. Like it, a round here would be similar too.
As Jonnie says about £15, depends how money drinks you buy, though.
It's easy to make a round go above £15. Just buy more drinks!!
Don't worry, it's just my warped humour, and the way i read your posts!
I’m holding out for £15
I never thought this would go below a tenner
How wrong I was, but I’m not making the mistake of thinking this won’t go above £15