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Good morning Pcs. I tend to agree with you. I find China is hard to read. However, the market there is decent enough value (though it could get cheaper, much cheaper on poor news). I'm just holding now and reinvesting dividends. At present I am showing a loss of c30%! as I bought too early (not for the first time!). For sure, a further drop would tempt me to buy a few more. As would better news from there. This is a market you cannot ignore (like the USA) and must have some exposure to or have it on your watchlist. It will turn. ALgent. PS Are you following/holding any other China related investment trusts? Myself, I am thinking of making an investment in FCSS.
" the majority of the negativity must be priced in by now."
I was just looking at China.... it is never fully priced in, if things get even worse ... the Bulls keep away and the Bears sell things down even more....although the worse it gets ...yes....the more likely a stimulus ...but enough stimulus ??
Record travel plans for this China New Year Holiday... so..data on spending confidence from that could be a barometer ....I think it is going to be a slow and gradual turnaround
....over capacity on manufacturing forcing deflation ..people must be bit worried about job losses at present so holding back spending...downward spiral if not careful
Turnaround time for China - Here's how to invest. (JCGI mentioned)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-02-06/turnaround-time-for-china-here-s-how-to-invest?leadSource=uverify%20wall
China Weighs Stock Market Rescue Package Backed by $278 Billion
I tend to agree r.e. bottoming out. Just commented on the BGCG board (which is extraordinarily quiet) that the majority of the negativity must be priced in by now. You would think/hope! Perhaps the news of the potential for Chinese stimulus will come to something. Fingers firmly crossed!
In today’s news: “Huge data leak dubbed the
'Mother of all Breaches' sees 26 BILLION records leaked from sites including Twitter, Linkedin, and Dropbox…. The biggest leak comes from Tencent's QQ, a popular Chinese messaging app which had 1.5 billion records in the breach.”
If this affects Tencent’s stock price, the NAV of this fund will drop further. I’m not currently invested (last sold around 210p) just watching with interest and will buy in again at some point, hoping for low 180’s.
Yep, doubled up at 198. See where this goes from 190ish.
Sold this at 300 last year, now it's way too cheap to ignore. It may not be the bottom but I don't think it's far from it.
Plus … 13% fall 11% of NAV down 5% …. Someone having a larf two top ups today.
I have a £2.00 target …. Current average from the decline from £3.20 earlier in the year is £2.45 bought a few more today and will again around the target … been in and out but like many caught the drop the past 6 months … to think I first bought in st £4.80 a couple of years ago down from what £8.00 a share?
The market is unforgiving.
Painful, comes to mind, considering I topped up[ for the new year last week.
“Chinese regulators announced on Friday a wide range of rules aimed at curbing spending and rewards that encourage video games, dealing a blow to the world's biggest games market, which returned to growth this year.” (Reuters.com)
Tencent is 11.2% of assets (stock price currently down 13%), NetEase 4.1%. Will be interesting to see what the impact is here.
I bought back in today because Tencent and Alibaba’s SP appear to be recovering, loosely mirroring the rise of U.S. stocks, and this hasn’t been reflected in the most recent NAV. Should soon be back to 230p+
@stargate after falling from highs of around 800p, disastrous news is mostly priced in to this trust. Better to be buying into China when prices have crashed than missing the upturn or buying in near the top.
I just keep adding monthly in my ISA as a way to build my holding.
I'm also steering clear (as much as possible) of the U.S, as it's overvalued IMHO & Warren Buffet thinks it's around 45% overvalued (he should know).
Agreed. I sold at a loss at 234p
3 year chart shows prolonged fall, and equity plumbing lowest lows, recently. Equity is in a classic long term bear, market of lower, lows, and lower highs. Sector chart broke below major support of 4/10/23, which is a strong sell signal. China, the second largest economy, has serious economic problems, papered over since 2009, by the communist regime . Economy, of China likely heading for collapse, or extended deflation, so avoid China .
Current NAV 282.91p. My 1001 buy at 16:25 shows as a sell for some reason.
Smallest hint of upward movement in the world’s second largest economy and I believe these shares will fly.
To me is all that really matters. The discount just got bigger (now 35%) so I'll keep buying :)
Dividend should continue but ignore the retrospectively calculated yield shown here. Around 5% is more like it.
Please be gentle team, novice here. Im interested in the dividend returns.
I recall (perhaps incorrectly) that when JCGI which, as an avid Sinophile Ive held for a few years, introduced their increased 4%(?) dividend, they also introduced a policy to take from capital if necessary.
If this is correct, do we know how much of the dividend being paid now is 'natural' income and how much is being taken from capital?
Because I assume, with the recent capital performance, any such capital returns will just accelerate the NAV decline.
Is my naïve understanding correct? Can we determine by how much from the accounts, and should we be worried?
I'm happy to add too. More upside than down and a decent dividend to collect whilst we wait for the re rate. GLA
I'm happy to keep adding at these prices for medium/long term growth & income.
The Chinese stock market can't stay in the doldrums forever & it's better to buy below 300p than above 600p.
Good luck to those brave enough to invest & stay invested.
The next few days will be interesting. I know it often trades 30-40p below NAV (currently 287p) but the gearing usually reduces towards the end of June. I think investors will be eyeing up the next dividend and considering what the NAV might be on September 30th.
It could slip a little further but not much. Maybe 240'ish worst case but lots of upside. Hoping to see above 350 again within 6 months
Today seemed a good day to buy. Hope I’ve timed it right as not planning to buy any more unless it takes a significant plunge. To me, the SSE index looks well overdue an upward spike 🤞