Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
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What is the likelihood that Coltrane and other large shareholders will start to sell off their holdings in the next week? Or will they stick it out to participate in the post dilution company? The likelihood of 3-4p seems to depend on this. At the moment large holders must either be buying or holding as there can't be anything else supporting a 16p sp.
Thanks pbody. I am waiting until the share price becomes completely distressed. say around 3-5p. Of course I may never get the chance as at the moment it looks to me like the bondholders have the upper hand and I don't want to be holding unless I'm sure it won't get de-listed.
I am expecting a run of sellers as we approach the bondholder offer vote from those who would rather take some money as opposed to getting diluted to oblivion or getting zero in a pre-pack
cc2015 be carful what your dealing with.
I totally agree with you.
but these are people who only post on interserve.
I think some are employees/ex employees' or sub divisions of such.
I doubt they post on other shares. they will be grateful for your advice and will sometimes have useful knowledge but you could take all day, day after day.
best of luck to you.
suggest buying in again sub 10p
1. Agreed
2. Agreed
3. Or IRV could continue to lose money as turnaround not well executed and share price heads down
4. same as 4
5. Coltrane can't increase their stake about 30% unless they make a bid for IRV. But concert party agreed. But if make a bid bondholders won't write off debt (why should they). So this looks impossible but see 6.
6. A white knight appears and disrupts the pre-pack and makes a better offer to the administrator than the bondholders have. White knight would require a £1b funding line at say 5% interest to make this work. Very very unlikely
7. A white knight appears and disrupts pre-pack by bidding for only parts of IRV. Also very very unlikely
8. Coltrane take legal action to delay pre-pack (not sure if this is possible) and things get really really messy.
schwee
I don't think there is any time left now for your 5th option unfortunately
There is a fifth: Coltrane take control of IRV by increasing their stake to 50% + 1 share, or by forming a concert group with the other top 5 shareholders which would take such a group over the 50 per cent mark.
The silence of the non Coltrane institutional shareholders is deafening.
So if the total shareholding hasn't increased and remains at 150m, one of the following four outcomes will happen:
1. The BoD / Lenders deal is voted down by Coltrane & Farringdon -= Pre-pack Administration - SP is zero
2. The BoD / Lenders deal is voted through, but Lenders de-list Interserve = SP 15.3p but no liquidity for years
3. The BoD / Lenders deal is voted through and Interserve remains listed = SP starts at 15.3p but could rise over time to 30p.
4. Coltrane provide all assurances to BoD and the BoD gain lenders approval = SP starts at 25p but could rise over time to 50p.
Outcome 1 or 2 appear to be the most probable to me
Many of the financial websites source their data from the same place. often Morningstar or Factset. If you do this day in day out like it becomes apparent there are very many mistakes on these sites.
I suspect (but do not know) that much of the data entered into these central databases is done by very junior staff not paid very much. I suggest this as some of the mistakes are so bad they should be picked up immediately but often aren't for months.
So, I find it's always best to go back to the source documents, which are the annual report and the RNS feeds.
I repeat the company cannot issue new shares without informing the market and this is done through an RNS. so, no the warrants cannot have been issued because we've seen no RNS. (Further, if you read the deleveraging plan you will see the lenders have agreed not to convert them during the period where their offer is active).
If you guys feel really strongly about it you could contact IRV investor relations for clarification.
Surely if the quantity of shares increased then shareholders would be advised and an RNS issued?
Pretty sure there was something in the prospectus about done sharex hitting the market on the 1st March, thought can’t say for sure.
214m is all over the place so is it a central base where they all get their information from?
CC
Couldn't some of these "new" shares, be part of the 10p offer the Lenders received about a year ago?
Yes a mistake. Directors cannot issue 1 share yet alone 60m shares without telling the market.
KingArthur- Like Feilb says any good news is irrelevant for shareholders now, it’s the BOD and the lenders that will be reaping the benefits. If you think this SP will £6 then you are largely mistaken since this will give the company a cap of 18bn which is impossible.
This looks like it’s all over tbh if the share information is correct.
CC
Bill spotted it, I just looked on a traders site and it confirms 215M - could this be a mistake?
https://citywire.co.uk/funds_insider/share-prices-and-performance/share-factsheet.aspx?InstrumentID=153483
Where do you source this information that the shares have gone up to 210m? The year end accounts published only a week ago show 148m. Even if you add in the warrants you get 182m
BlindPanic,
The owners will be the Lenders but it will be de-listed and not a Pre-pack Admin like Mouchel,
The Lenders in this situation have enough votes to vote their own deal through. They will just de-list.
I would suggest the BoD will keep their jobs as part of the agreement to promote the Lenders deal.
There must be at least one person on the Board who thinks this is all totally wrong and Coltrane's deal would have been a fairer outcome for all. If there is someone left on the Board with their moral compass still intact, they need to stand up pretty quickly!
KingArthur,
Good news on EfW at last, but for me now it will only benefit the Lenders who will de-list this Business.
It would be the right thing to do; if the BoD did offer an olive branch to existing shareholders and raised the deal to 7.5% for them (and the Lenders could afford to), but I don't see this happening now as they have the percentage required to get the Lenders deal through and no doubt will have received personal agreements from the Lenders......
Sorry to be all doom and gloom, but I think now the only winners will be the Lenders.
I hope I am wrong and their is another twist in the tale.
Directors don’t need to subscribe for shares. The owners will change the board and provide a new MIP to the new management.
Good to read good news for a change....Another Energy from Waste project achieved Take Over.
Hard to see through the numbers and anything other than the deleveraging but a notable point for longer term investor is that the major fail that tripped this business up was the Energy from Waste sector projects.
This is significant and leaves providing they stick to their proven core business a clean balance sheet for a sustainable business without drain on profit - scratch the surface wind back pre EFW and this was £6 Sp. Has to be repeatable hence the lender investments.
Watching for a positive RNS on consideration that serves to satisfy lender and major shareholders - I managed some good day trading yesterday on the up......maybe same today?
There is a real potential long term or day trading......Future Blue Sky and Poised to Buy
Bill,
Good spot, I hadn't noticed the increase of total shares from 150m to 215m shares - this could be very important!
If all those shares went to the Lenders then you are correct they now have 30%.
Coltrane had just under 28% and Farringdon had just under 7% that is 35% of the old total (150m) a total of circa 52m shares.
But now the total share has increased to 215m, their holding % drops to 52 / 215 = 24%.
So you are correct
Coltrane & Farringdon have 24%, but the Lenders have 30%.
I think this is game over now.
I cannot see enough PI's opposing the deal to beat the Lenders, albeit it could be close.......
So the likely outcome is the Lenders deal gets through. Not enough existing shareholders take up the OO to leave 25% free float and the Lenders de-list Interserve - always their plan.
I can see now why the BoD have stated they will not take part in the OO. Every one who does will end up with shares that are de-listed. This means their value will drop and there will be no liquidity in those shares.
The Board should have come clean to existing shareholders and made this known - at least give everyone the facts.
This is very underhand imo.
Den69- are you suggesting the BoD have done some trading based on inside knowledge? Is this what Coltrane are thinking? Others have suggested the board have driven down the price. I don’t know but I guess the FCA should investigate the whole thing going back to when Ringrose said things were improving. Oh and the trading update a year ago said things were ahead of schedule etc. I can’t be bothered to look at the history hopefully others will (although the FCA have been involved for a very long time). If so and when findings result from an investigation it should be the board who suffer the consequences, never mind it was only a judgement ...etc.
Denbvy69,
I am not a shareholder here, but I would love to see the board sacked. This reminds me so much of Mouchel, where I was invested. There is an EGM motion from Coltrane to remove most of the board, but it will not be voted on until the 26th March. The company may not even exist then, and if it does the share ownership will have changed dramatically, so the vote will likely be easily defeated. Coltrane are fighting greedy lenders and a hostile board, who have probably been promised bags of shares to steer this towards being taken private or a pre-pack administration.
There are now 214m in issue as opposed to the original 150m. So I’m presuming another 65m shares have been issued to the lenders to get the deal over the line.
So the lenders have 30% of the votes and Coltrane and Farringdon have 23%? Another fudge from the great BOD.
If Coltrane proposals were taken up, because the company had a workable debt they would survive and the share in time would go to 50p ? (be nice to sack most of the board )
Except they seem to think they are immune according to this headline. Anyone got suscribtion that could check the detail?
https://www.partnershipsbulletin.com/news/english-law-may-protect-interserve