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The small rise today made me aware of this, looked at the fundamentals and looks positive to me with lots of upside. Bought first tranche at 44.5, may add more as I do some more research. Hopefully the seller is finished and there aren't lots of shares to keep the MM's fully stocked!
Final dividend for 2019 was cut to preserve cash, but plan was for full year 2019 dividend to total 12.4p , which at today's share price is more than 25%. New purchase today, think this has legs!
CEO has 1.2m shares (and restricted stock/options) all at a higher level. Last 200k buy at 49p, but noted another 200k but at 103p. Right at the bottom of the 5 year chart. Much of the hard work been done to establish itself, looks a bargain at these levels.
Small investor here.
I agree that IPF has been oversold.
There are three major issues with this stock:
Government Caps on interest rates (now base plus 5% max)
Moratorium on debt repayment
Both are applicable until the end of this year - these will have a significant hit on their earnings
Bond payable April 2021 (c €400m), they have issued a prospectus for €1Bn
In my belief, anything < 68p represents “value” in the medium term, however it will take 2 years before they return to previous levels of profitibaility sp - c180p
I believe there is a short on this share too. I am a holder of this stock so I’m watching with interest.
There is your TR1! 10M dump yesterday must be them out now?!
Wickersley
I Disagree as most of there business is done outside of the uk.
I ought to have been clearer. By "Government" I did not mean the UK. Poland, Hungary & Czech Republic are their main business areas. Two of which have implemented the restrictions I outlined in my earlier post. The IPF model assumes a 25-30% default rate on all lending, which is fine when you are charging base + 80% interest. However at +5%, their model fails.
Joined today your not a shorter by any chance ?
I see an opportunity here.
I sound ramper sorry i don`t mean to
Goodness me no. Just £2K in the game (at 38p). I posted because I saw some "frothy" comments from others when looking at the current share price v last years accounts. The April 30th trading statement really ought to be read before monies are invested (68p > 32p within 5 weeks)
Welcome to the website Wickerley I see today is your first post. Good luck
Laughing. I'm happy just to sit here & watch the price tick up.
no better investment trade than one that ticks up haha
So there are now 2 different sellers, interesting, hopefully they are just mobilising cash and not selling their whole holdings
The MDs have been buying in quantity. Sort of tells its own story. Accounts look good with ample provision and they have also put in place alternative collection strategies; collections effectiveness is expected to be at a similar level in May with improvements anticipated thereafter. Nobrainer at theses levels ...
I have been researching this today with a view to buying. Not looking to deramp or get a cheap entry etc. Just trying to decide if its for me, i am already in NSF which is the same area of business And i think .. There are obviously covid headwinds here as There are for all companies. I’m not greatly concerned by that, Its obvious too That a couple of ii,s are selling Down - but that wont last and again It is happening across many sectors during covid-19..
Its the bonds due in 11 months that i need to know more about - can someone please explain in simple terms how this works as its fair old amount and may affect my decision to invest.
“Bond payable April 2021 (c €400m), they have issued a prospectus for €1Bn“
Sorry postman at door, meant to edit Third line, and I think these loan businesses could do well in a recession.
They currently pay interest on the bond. I would expect the bond will be renewed prior to settlement date. Not sure what conditions / terms are attached. You would have to trawl through the RNSs
Thanks Zebbo - Found this in FY results - At December 2019 we had total debt facilities of £862 million (£542 million bonds and £320 million bank facilities) and borrowings of £679 million, with headroom on undrawn facilities of £182 million. We continued to extend debt facilities during 2019, and now have £322 million of facilities extending beyond the Eurobond maturity in 2021. In the final quarter of 2019, we repaid £14 million of bonds that matured, and bought back £5 million of 2021 Eurobonds at an average price of 97.3. We have two bonds totalling £84 million maturing in May/June 2020, and our £344 million Eurobond matures in April 2021. The settlement of the Polish tax dispute removes a significant liquidity risk for IPF and this, combined with the high level of headroom on undrawn debt facilities, will allow more flexibility in the refinancing of the Eurobond, which we aim to complete by the end of 2020.
I see rns they have just paid £44m of £84mil maturing now in two bonds. Has the 2nd one been extended? I assume that Repayment was from cash held (which was £217m)
The 400m maturing next April I’d agree its a fair assumption they will do a similar thing , pay off a lump and extend the rest subject to agreement.
Ian.B, shouldn't that be £344mn maturing in April 2021? Still a large item, however, to roll over. I wonder what credit spread change it will entail, to get it away.
Further to my last post, I see now where you might have got your €404mn Eurobond reference size from. The Q1 Update RNS! But then, how does that square with the Final Results RNS in which you refer to the £344mn outstanding April 2021 Eurobond issue? I am confused.
IPF states, " IPF is a well-capitalised and funded business and we have successfully served millions of customers for more than twenty years."
If this is so, how come the sp just made a new monthly low in May?
There was a few posts flagging up 400m euros bonds due (see the first post in this thread) ... which Is what i asked about.
In the FY rns the Euro-bonds due in April 2021 are referred to in GBP And not in Euros - £344mil value In GBP - at current exchange rate i think thats nearer 383mil euros Than 400mil but exchange rates can change. Not splitting hairs on exact amount i was more interested in how they will deal with that when it comes up.
IPF hopes to conclude the refinancing by year end, according to the Q1 update. The sp is highly geared to that event.
Couple of institutions selling down - allowing for a cheap entry. £90m market cap. 25% ish dividend at this level had the final dividend been paid. Refinancing the debt due April 2021 the challenge, but the equity has been marked down to ridiculous levels surely..
Cash flow positive in April. Comforted re debt by the fact that we don’t have a credit crisis. Supportive governments/ economies.