Ben Richardson, CEO at SulNOx, confident they can cost-effectively decarbonise commercial shipping. Watch the video here.
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Surprised there's nobody on here discussing it?
And I agree with you, the lawsuit is a pesky cloud over our heads. Personally from what I have heard and seen the evidence presented, INDV has a very good shot at taking it to trial and winning / paying out $0. But if you have access to the court docs…the judge overseeing the case is the mediator as well and is pressuring INDV to settle. Which is annoying to say the least.
Yes, I work on Wall Street, so it should not be shocking to you that I am privy to information that typical retail investors don’t have access to (but they could if they could get in touch with the right people).
Management teams often listen to their largest shareholders, especially long term ones. You just don’t ever hear about it, so you think it doesn’t happen. And yes, I do want an active large shareholder who has a lot of money at stake to make sure the board isn’t doing anything foolish like trying to settle the lawsuit at a stupidly high price. This company is run by a bunch of old conservative British people. There is almost no insider stock ownership from board members. They are not as fully aligned with us as they should be.
As for INDV vs. FTSE…FTSE250 is a capitalization weighted index like the S&P500. In a bad year, most individual stocks are down more than the index. INDV is a small component of the FTSE250. So again, trying to argue that INDV fell more than FTSE250 is due to fundamentals…I mean it could be, but I doubt it. S&P500 was down 38% in 2008 but many many individual stocks were down 50-80% even ones that had nothing to do with the mortgage or banking system.
A lot of British stocks are down more YTD than the index. Also, the USD has been strengthening, which also weakens GBP priced equities.
Idkmybibffjill - interesting that you are privy to information in relation to INDV's biggest shareholder. And that they had the "power" to persuade the BOD to defer the announcement of results pending hopeful settlement of pending legal matters.
If you care to re-read my post, I suggested that the deferment may be exactly due to the above: as I stated " Or, potentially, this court case settled prior to going to trial."
Either way, I'd stand by it not being a good optic. You seem to be indicating that the BOD can be influenced by a shareholder to defer results - is that a good thing?
They had earlier rejected the overtures of a major shareholder, Seven Seas CEO, to have a seat on the board. And yet they are minded to defer results due to a request by a shareholder to do so?
I don't have any doubts that the earnings will be good and in line with H2 comments/ projections, hopefully even better. But if you don't get the legal matters resolved, INDV will have to continue to carry forward a liability for it, and that will overshadow any excellent earnings/ performance, and negatively influence the SP. So, as I've said many times, the addressing of the legal issues is front and centre not only for the BOD and us small shareholders, but clearly based on your information, the larger shareholders too.
And in terms of the INDV share price mirroring the decline in the FTSE 250 in general. A month ago the FTSE 250 stood at 18638 and is now 17032 so a decline of 9.4%. A month ago INDV stood at 1780p and is now 1519p so down 17.2% - nearly double the decline of the FTSE 250.
Two Seas Capital specialise in legal situations. I have no doubt that they can see the clear excessive negativity applied to INDV currently.
Apeirogon, at their growth rate, they deserve a much higher multiple than 15x. I’ve been disappointed by the low volume of the US listing. We need more attention from US investors. Will just take time.
Also, instead of randomly prescribing a reason why the stock is down every day, have you looked at the FTSE 250? British market has been in free fall, and short of the lawsuit resolution and earnings report, INDV has just been tracking that every single day.
Mythaar, I have it on good authority from someone close to the situation that Indivior’s largest shareholder (10% owner) asked the company to push the earnings date back 2 weeks to allow for the lawsuit to hopefully be resolved before earnings date. So please do not speculate on matters and wrongly assume the company did it because they had bad earnings to report.
Cannabis Use Disorder treatment will be massive. Aelis Farma claim that 30% of 15-24yr olds are users and 11-16% of that develop severe problems. So in the US that’s about 1.6m potential patients in that cohort alone. Worldwide Cannabis is being decriminalised and it is getting stronger. Users are not just 15-24 either.
They need to get the trial out of the way first - or preferably settled prior to going to trial - to prevent the seemingly inexorable daily decline.
The deferring of the Q3 results was/ is a bad optic too. 2 weeks later than for the previous 5 years - why? You can trace most of the SP's decline from that announcement. You don't defer because you have so much profit to declare that you need more time to add it up. You defer because you need to get your story straight first. Or, potentially, this court case settled prior to going to trial.
Back to the original point - get the case out of the way and settled/ resolved. Until then - a steady decline until 9th November. I bought in last week again at what I considered to be a great price, and it still probably is, and the basis that the continued drop would surely abate shortly and reverse. So far, I've been proved wrong.
Once the litigation is out of the way - I don't see why this wouldn't rerate to a more sensible 15x for a company with a decent growth rate and - importantly - Nasdaq listing.
Annual operation profits of $240 x 15 = $3.6bn / £2.98bn
Factor in growth of 25% per year for 3yrs gets Operating Profit to $468m x 15 = $7bn. PV at 10% is $5.2bn/£4.3bn
Current Mkt Cap £2.1bn / EV £1.8bn
Thoughts most welcome
The final leg of the Multi District Litigation (MDL) claims is set for trial on 30th October. They set aside a total provision of $187m for this and have settled with 41 states already for $102m.
Other news will be the roll-out of Opvee for emergency opiod overdose treatment. Targeting peak net revenue of $150-250m.
“ You asked why I sold at 1784…. so I could get back in at 1584. Thanks for asking.”
LOL, right. You knew the stock would magically selloff 2 months later. Because the broad UK market is selling off. Has nothing to do with INDV.
Get outta here lol. Should’ve used your magical clairvoyance to sell above 1900 instead of 1784.
I think Blackrock have had the same holding for the year 5.05% combined. They ve just swapped a few voting rights shares inthe latest RNS
Blackrock now own just over 5% of the company. Blackrock operate a lot of ETFs, so one cannot automatically assume that there is any ulterior motive behind their holding other than to say there is clear interest in owning a good asset.
Down to 1575. I hope you're not underwater for too much longer Apeirogon! I've added a few too just now.
You asked why I sold at 1784…. so I could get back in at 1584. Thanks for asking.
Thursday November 9th. This is 2 weeks later than normal - based on the previous 5 years of 3rd quarter reporting.
Not too sure it is that easy to "resolve legal matters" in the US that quickly, other than to fall over and pay through the nose...
Just did a quick search on Two Seas Capital LP. Correct me if I'm wrong but they hold 13.7 million shares in INDV so about 10% of the company? And this is by some way their largest holding in their portfolio, c $250 million at current prices v next biggest at $75 million. They involve themselves in investments that have a "legal or regulatory catalyst" and "events-driven strategies". A positive spin on this is that they can see the potential value that Indivior can unlock, but are frustrated at the progress in resolving outstanding legal matters. Toussi may have requested to have a seat to add his thoughts to the matter and also understand Indivior's commercial and legal strategies going forward to help to protect their significant investment/ exposure in the company.
“On September 22, 2023, Sina Toussi, the Chief Investment Officer of TSC and Managing Member of TSC GP, wrote to Mark Crossley, the Issuer’s Chief Executive Officer and Executive Director, to discuss the possibility of Mr. Toussi being appointed as a director on the Issuer’s Board of Directors (the “Board”). Following discussions among Mr. Toussi and members of the Board and management, the determination was made not to move forward with the Board seat for Mr. Toussi at this time.”
Not sure what to make of this
Moving with the UK market. Selling off.
Why the drop? Down £1.50 in two days!
Shearclass, what other comps should we be looking at for INDV?