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Started: Wigwammer, 13 Jun 2024 22:21
Last post: Wigwammer, 13 Jun 2024 22:21
What is the relevance of the incanthera paper loss to the immupharma investment case today? Answer - very little. At the time they made the incanthera investment in 2018, immuoharma had over £9m on the balance sheet. They now have sub £500k. The shares are also now at a materially lower level of valuation. So the paper loss is already reflected in the immupharma valuation, and evidently the value of the cash from an operating perspective is more important now than it was back in 2018… This is all pretty obvious stuff - unless of course your objective is to always invent a counterpoint, and never make a decision… GLA
Started: Supermobileman, 13 Jun 2024 19:58
Last post: Wigwammer, 13 Jun 2024 21:46
It is often forgotten, that immupharma rose from circa 25p up to around 180p, and many investors locked in profits and made money. From memory, nolupus was not amongst them… Personally I would rather hear from somebody with a history of making decisions and getting some wrong, than the views of someone whose apparent objective is to never make a decision at all… ATB
That may be, and I cannot answer for the individual as we have never met. But from personal observation, and investment in IMM for a while, I can vouch for a vastly greater number of high profile punters on here who were totally INCORRECT about the predicted future valuation of Imm, some of whom may have used untruths or made up numbers to justify their ramping positions.
How many Nolupus' posts has been correct or truthful?
To be here on this BB that long, this is his life. Very sad.
Started: Supermobileman, 13 Jun 2024 19:36
Last post: Olderandwiser, 13 Jun 2024 19:39
Nolupus has been posting correctly on this BB for longer than you have been in nappies, sonny.
Respect to him.
Nolupus is a psychotic stalker of IMM. The flashing blue lights will come to his door to put him in a straitjacket and send him back to the mental asylum.
Started: Frits, 13 Jun 2024 12:49
Last post: xviolet, 13 Jun 2024 14:58
Someone bought a few today.
market generally going off a cliff today...no one buying anything much (my trader pals tell me)
but here....we have a spark...
Bahahhaa
Frits - bet he's quaking in his boots now, waiting at the window for those flashing blue lights & ominous knock on the door.
The question that needs to be answered Nobinpus is not the financial state of IMM. It is why your continually posing on a website regards a share that you’re not invested in?
Your false and misleading information regarding IMM current fiancial status is a criminal offence and I would strongly adive you to stop as your breaking the law.
Frits
Started: oldbutnowisa, 9 Jun 2024 15:24
Last post: Wigwammer, 13 Jun 2024 09:02
Nolupus will wait until all his ducks are in order, and buy Imm shares at 20p+… Was it 150p you paid back in 2017/18?
Dallo,
Thanks for your maths lesson..but Reality has shown us that IMM sold their stake AT 15p when the Sp was over 20p which was a large discount to the 'market price' but whatever.
Reality and fantasy , Two sides to every coin , Eyes to the stars but let's keep Our feet on the ground, please
Well if that happens I’ll be very happy 🚀
Nolupus
Small lesson in maths
Immupharma sold its holding for loss of £875,000
Warrants in unrealised profit of £1.2m at Incanthera's SP of 26.5p
If Incanthera's SP moves to say 40p then Immupharma will be well in excess of £1m profit.
Nolupus
I think the point Lord is making is that 7 months ago ,Incanthera was toast with a share price of 5p which was totally illiquid and in effect worthless with zero value on the warrants.
Regardless of Mc Carthy's mad decision to invest Immupharma's funds in it ,Incanthera could now conceivably yield Immupharma a profit of over a £1m if the Incanthera SP keeps going higher.
We have to deal in the present so this is very good news for Immupharma investors.
Now we need positive news on Immupharma related business.
Started: Supermobileman, 9 Jun 2024 00:07
Last post: GoldGirl, 9 Jun 2024 14:39
Excellent post Super 👌
Post recommended
Thank you
Super fantastic post. Even better than I thought. As goldgirl says a late stage development in which avion would not commit millions of dollars to if they thought it didn't have a great chance of it being approved. I know it's still a gamble but the odds look on our side and would be wonderful to lupus sufferers. And it's low 2p. Unbelievable.
Super
Excellent post and 100% correct as the company had confirmed to me last year.
IMM have never gone against FDA recommendation. The adaptive Phase 2/3 study was never part of FDA recommendation. There's nothing in the RNS or otherwise which suggest this. The only known FDA recommendation was to use higher dose levels. How this is done is up to IMM/Avion.
IMM and Avion came to agreement it was to be the Phase 2/3 adaptive study design, and submitted their documents to the FDA for this study as chosen route. Later, they changed their mind and gone straight for the Phase 3 study (with full FDA approval of course).
The 'Phase 2' part of the Phase 2/3 adaptive study was going to be the dose range finding and the 'Phase 3' part of the Phase 2/3 adaptive study was to be the progression study with the chosen dose.
The now direct Phase 3 route will still incorporates all of key objectives including dose-ranging, that was in the Phase 2/3 adaptive study. The difference is the time wasting time consuming Phase2/3 adaptive study would have where they have to stop and report after 'Phase 2' before they can start 'Phase 3'. Whereas, direct Phase 3 route does not.
IMM have data regarding dosing with the already completed pharmacokinetic study (which was requested by the FDA), which demonstrated that the key endpoints had been met and in line with all human dosing to date, that P140 was safe and well tolerated across all doses and in all subjects. It is this data in my opinion, I believed IMM/Avion have taken into account and that the longer Phase 2/3 adaptive study was not appropriate or needed.
Started: MysticMike, 7 Jun 2024 07:34
Last post: lordloadsoflolly, 8 Jun 2024 08:49
Leistertheinvestor - there’s a reason why the FDA suggests their preferred trial protocol. And I think it’s safe to assume it stems from their vast experience of previous comparable trials.
Of course, every trial is different and IMM is perfectly within its rights to say it wants a different design. I suspect this was motivated as much by speed (& cost) as the likelihood of a better readout, though obviously all parties ultimately want it to succeed.
My understanding is that the FDA wouldn’t normally prevent ANY trial design from proceeding, unless they had concerns on patient safety grounds. So in this instance, IMM would have been free to proceed. After all, it’s their (our!) money. But IMHO that doesn’t mean it convinced the FDA their alternative trial design was better - or even as good - as a Phase 2/3 adaptive clinical trial.
‘FDA guidance’ is only their preferred trial protocol, the company can show their reasonings for changing the suggested trial design to achieve a better readout, this is what’s happening and clearly the FDA have passed this new design to allow it to go proceed, as they are doing.
I see Lord, thanks for that.
Gla
GoldGirl - Immupharma HASN'T fully gone "in line with FDA suggestions" as you suggest.
Their "recommendation" was for a Phase 2/3 adaptive clinical trial and IMM initially agreed to this. Before subsequently changing their mind & opting for a Phase 3 study including dose range.
It's rarely sensible to go against FDA guidance, but we'll see.
Going by them time lines we will be looking to start the trial by back end of the year or start of 25. Happy with that. A tim interview to outline the way ahead would be nice. If incanthera comes good whats stopping them returning the favour in terms of funding !
Started: GoldGirl, 6 Jun 2024 11:20
Last post: GoldGirl, 6 Jun 2024 11:20
Gla
Started: Moneymule888, 5 Jun 2024 16:02
Last post: dallo, 5 Jun 2024 21:25
Moneymule
Agree with you but AS Watson has thousands of products but never underestimate the Black Swan of competition arriving in this market.
I hope Incanthera does great but a lot depends on consistent quality manufacturing and delivery to the marketplace..
That will depend on Incanthera's outsourced manufacturing facilities and distribution.
Hope you do well
Incanthera has patented technology and FMA.
It’s not a pure cosmetic play but it is backed up 100% by science.
Watson have identified that there is no product offering of a similar nature and consumers are demanding a product of such scientific backing rather than cosmetic pureplays.
Watson are not a daft company. To double the initial order before launch means Watson will have gaged consumer demand. They’re huge beasts and it is very difficult to get your product onto their lucrative shelves.
“I agree with your assessment of Incanthera with a market cap of £30m , 3 times that of Immupharma.” Yes that’s right, Dallo. Different level of valuation, far more priced in… ATB
Wigwammer
I agree with your assessment of Incanthera with a market cap of £30m , 3 times that of Immupharma.
However nothing is certain when it comes to cosmetic products where marketing costs represent 90% of the total overheads .
Incanthera will do well but to say it will be a £100m company without massive advertising spend is probably a bridge too far
A takeover by a big player is the most likely outcome as Incanthera has little cash and no management structure not to mention production facilities.
A buyout at 50p would be Mc Carthy's dream.
Wise to sell now by Immupharma and let the warrants ride imho
Dilution will happen once you’ve burnt through the Inca cash. There is nothing on the horizon for IMM or you’d have found out today.
Dead cat bounce
Started: Moneymule888, 5 Jun 2024 14:43
Last post: Moneymule888, 5 Jun 2024 16:00
Enjoy the cash burn.
Your hopes for news evaporating quicker than your cash. But not for long. Another year of cash burn funded and zilch progress.
A fool and his money…
Indeed. Moneymule said all his negatives before, at less than half the current share price.
The touch of an ape.. :)
The bid is 2.47p - the highest its been all day?
As I’ve said before. The focus for Tim is now on Inca.
Imm is a dud.
But DYOR and watch cash burn
Started: Frits, 5 Jun 2024 14:42
Last post: formerlyeasyp, 5 Jun 2024 15:22
Https://www.lse.co.uk/news/biotech-growth-trust-sighs-relief-as-sharply-outperforms-benchmark-560bhbrgbmntqnb.html
Some good news in this sector....
From Nobinpus to Dallo,
Why do WE Always need to see the positive side and never the negative ??
Why sell now If Sol IS the next blockbuster ?
Why sell out AT a loss After diluting Imm shareholders so much because of the Incanthera investment ?
Why sell now If imm has such a Great future ?
*Why am I posting on this BB as I am ot invested in IMM?
one should be asking these questions ,IS my view but apparently i am Just a "village idiot "
Two sides to every coin , and like it or lump it , something smells of ......
Started: oldbutnowisa, 5 Jun 2024 08:54
Last post: oldbutnowisa, 5 Jun 2024 13:22
MM - Can't disagree with you but they can only tell us what they know and even then Simbec may have required or suggested that they keep info to themselves for now.
I think this RNS is really poor no real update on the trial, and the sale of Incanthera shares is now £1.4m the other day it was £1.5m if they cannot get these details correct what do we trust. They should be giving a better update on the trial because Sumbec were approved in Dec that’s almost 7 months ago.
Nothing new that we did not know already. Obviously nobody knows what the average time it takes to set the trial up.
That's great Leicester
I do feel we can do rather well and that's a really nice holding.
Gla
Hi, yes I remember you from N4P board, hope your doing okay.
I have added 1.25m shares over the past few sessions only because I can’t risk being out if trial news lands, won’t be adding more until the trial is well underway.
Started: Stockraiser, 5 Jun 2024 08:00
Last post: GoldGirl, 5 Jun 2024 08:14
I would like to see Tim do an interview - vibes are important
This is where future funding will come from .... ;-)
GLA SR
The warrant deeds (between the Company and the respective counter-parties - the holders of warrants) have been varied, such that the exercise price of the 2021 Warrants and 2022 Warrants is reduced from 11 pence and 5.5 pence respectively to 2 pence.
The 2021 Warrants and 2022 Warrants will then be exercisable at the earlier of (i) the five day volume weighted average price of Ordinary Shares attaining 4 pence or (ii) 12 months following First Admission or (iii) a takeover offer is announced for the Company. The reduction in the warrant exercise prices was agreed with all the warrant holders and from the Company's perspective, there will be a higher probability of receiving additional funding from the exercise of these warrants as the share price appreciates and the warrants are 'in the money'.
Started: oldbutnowisa, 5 Jun 2024 08:14
Last post: oldbutnowisa, 5 Jun 2024 08:14
When, oh when are we to actually get anything official from Simbec Orion?
Started: formerlyeasyp, 5 Jun 2024 07:18
Last post: GoldGirl, 5 Jun 2024 07:59
Scientifically I am happy looks like they have put there socks up on that.
For Lupus - direct phase 3 route and study vastly different. Quicker route!
2 interim read outs- could be anytime to see effectiveness. 1 injection per month.
I'm happy. Let's see. Interested in this late stage asset.
Mcap 10m!
Not factored anything else but this does feel like a sleeping giant.
Gla
Cue Nolo..... Nah only joking, seems like a good time to invest because in years past an RNS would attract a flurry of comments. Today....not so much.
· On 3 June 2024 the Company sold its investment in shares in Incanthera plc. All of the 9,904,319 shares held at the year end were sold at 15p per share realising gross proceeds of £1.4 million. ImmuPharma continues to hold 7,272,740 warrants in Incanthera plc.
"Substantially different" interesting comment on the new trial for Lupizor.
Not much cash in the coffers?
Holding & Hoping.
Started: GoldGirl, 4 Jun 2024 16:49
Last post: Wigwammer, 4 Jun 2024 23:33
“Eyes to the sky while feet on the ground”
“Two sides to every coin”
“Like it or lump it”
Bottom line is… the guy can’t make a decision. ATB
Dallo,
Why do WE Always need to see the positive side and never the negative ??
Why sell now If Sol IS the next blockbuster ?
Why sell out AT a loss After diluting Imm shareholders so much because of the Incanthera investment ?
Why sell now If imm has such a Great future ?
one should be asking these questions ,IS my view but apparently i am Just a "village idiot "
Two sides to every coin , and like it or lump it , something smells of ......
Actions speak louder than words. Indeed. And it is clear some posters here have added shares in recent months and others have reduced.
But what has nolupus done? Talked a lot… :)
Nolupus
Remember every investment should be viewed in the present so a year or two ago Incanthera was a basket case with just a suncream product Sol in development.
Mc Carthy should never have invested funds from Immupharma in the company but he did.
Now when Immupharma needs funds the Incanthera investment has come good....better than writing the whole investment off and being stuck for cash .
Look on the positive side.
With the warrants in the money there is no realised loss on Immupharma's investment in Incanthera.
Started: yorkshirehussar, 4 Jun 2024 16:25
Last post: yorkshirehussar, 4 Jun 2024 16:25
When I was following this share it took 6 months to appoint them as CRO. This suppressed the share price. Then with all the doubt about financing this took it to all time lows. Now we have some money in the bank and if incanthera stays at its levels or gets stronger we will make at least a 100% profits on the warrants. The answer I myself as a thick Yorkshire man don't know is how long does it take for simbec orion to put everything in place. I assume getting candidates who are steroid free is a challenge for this phase 3 trial and then I believe they have to be a certain bio marker ? Can someone fill in the dots please ?
Started: yorkshirehussar, 3 Jun 2024 19:27
Last post: Nolupus, 4 Jun 2024 16:22
Okay With that...
Not that it matters much AT this stage but might have some importance later.
Best regards
Nolupus
I agree.
On further reading of the small print , the company has wrapped in the Alora warrants into the clause stipulating the earlier of the 3 conditions namely 4p share price, 1 year First Admission anniversary or a takeover.
Apologies as I didn't see the Alora warrants being brought under the conditions of exercise.
So no warrants exercise until the EARLIER of the three conditions arises.
Cheers
Dallo,
Thanks for your thoughts but all the warrants were modified because of the placing so the wording of the changes would seem to me to imply all of the warrants ...
All a matter of interpertation but
The 2021 Warrants and 2022 Warrants will then be exercisable at the earlier of (i) the five day volume weighted average price of Ordinary Shares attaining 4 pence or (ii) 12 months following First Admission or (iii) a takeover offer is announced for the Company
Nolupus
Because per the September 2023 placing agreement, Lanstead contributed £1.2m of the £1.5m raised and the warrants clause in relation to the First Admission anniversary of 1 year in effect applies to Lanstead mainly although the £300,000 placees have the same clause .
Regarding no response from Lisa ,I am somewhat bemused and will try again to contact her today.
One of the major items of concern was funding, now largely in the rear view mirror post the asset sale announced yesterday. Well done Tim .. ATB
Started: Frits, 4 Jun 2024 09:56
Last post: Frits, 4 Jun 2024 09:56
Just filter out our village idiot, his song has been the same since I joined here a long long time ago.
Another positive result, just hold the line, don't flinch.
You will be rewarded
Good luck all
Frits
Started: Ilovesushi, 3 Jun 2024 19:30
Last post: Ilovesushi, 3 Jun 2024 19:30
Just got to wait a while for the trial results then woooooosh
Started: biffbaffboff, 3 Jun 2024 10:23
Last post: GoldGirl, 3 Jun 2024 19:00
Meant dallo. Auto type is doing my head in 😆
Hi dalloway
Sorry I missed your post. Potentially 5m cash position if it all maps out and mcap 10m!!
If Tim can keep up the momentum we could easily be x4 plus l.
Gla
Lord,
My figures include all cash investments into Incanthera..
The licence agreements was never Taken UP by Incanthera...
Best regards
Nolupus - Do your figures take into account the terms of the Definitive Licence Agreement? These included Incanthera making a licence payment to ImmuPharma of £1m via new ordinary shares in Incanthera?
Either way, the move looks sound, given Incanthera's subsequent dilutive placing at 15p announced this morning. Doubtless IMM were - ahem - "given advance warning", without any insider trading laws whatsoever being broken.
Good news today. Extends the cash position while retaining exposure through the incanthera warrants. Well done to those who bought at the lower levels.. ATB
Thanks msuk for the explanation 👍
Cup and handle pattern ,bullish but needs aggresive buying to push it pass the resistance c 2.75 then 3.00 ...lots of sell liquidity above thats why every rise taken down
Msuk
Thanks for posting your chart. Im not a chartist. What does it mean 🤔
Started: yorkshirehussar, 3 Jun 2024 11:39
Last post: yorkshirehussar, 3 Jun 2024 11:39
The market loves financial stability. We are now in a very strong position for as and when the USA agenda comes through.
Started: Moneymule888, 3 Jun 2024 11:09
Last post: Moneymule888, 3 Jun 2024 11:09
I told everyone to get into Inca, enjoy this cash burning dog 😂
Started: yorkshirehussar, 31 May 2024 12:06
Last post: Ilovesushi, 3 Jun 2024 10:55
UP 25%
Here she goes chaps!!
TOP OF HIGHEST RISERS
Now only down 90%!
UP 23.17% so far. Will go to 3.0 pence shortly