The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Wig
Final point as I finish my Guinness..would you rather have 5% of a company worth £5m or 2% of a company worth £100m having been diluted by 60%.£.250,000 or £2m .
Wig
The investors got the warrants by investing money in the company which they could lose every penny and their warrants will be worthless together with their original investments.
Stop moaning..this is what happens in an AIM high risk investment that without Alora would be in liquidation a long time ago.
Management has chucked in a fair few bob so let's be positive.
I would be more than happy if the SP bumped up to 15p after a positive FDA decision because zero is not worth thinking about.
Best of luck
Wig
The Broker Option was also available to private investors so you could have got in like I did.
Admittedly for a small (ish) amount.
Dallo. The option and warrant holders don’t have to invest a penny until the price rises, at which point they exercise and dilute your upside. What I am stating is not a controversial point. IMM has large potential dilution, and IR should be upfront about it. ATB
Wig
Still fail to see you argument.
If Lupuzor is not approved for a Phase 3 we are all fecked.
If it is we all should see a higher SP than 5p.
I am happy with a chance of success rather than lose all my money.
You seem to think if investors make a lot of money by investing at 5p then the rest of us are being screwed
They are also risking all their money within a couple of weeks including Alora if Lupuzor is denied a Phase 3 trial.
You can't have it both ways my son.
Dallo - the dilution takes place in the future in the event we see positive news. We take the risk, someone else skims the reward.
Cuvio - most companies don’t have the level of dilution here. If they did it would be entirely appropriate to make it clear during an investment presentation.
Lambo
You hit the nail on the head.
If the FDA approves the Phase 3 trial then little Immupharma will have a fully funded trial and a free ride on the back of the Alora/ Avion $25M commitment and able to negotiate the Rest of World deals for Lupuzor plus its other peptide drugs.
What more could you want from an AIM minnow with a market cap of c£16 m.
If it had to fund the trial itself I would deeply concerned about dilution but it doesn't.
Alora chucked in £ 1.2 m at 11p so it is confident.
Let's see what the future brings and ATB to LTH.
Also if warrants or options are exercised then that money goes straight to the balance sheet thus adding value to the company, as Dallo says if Lupozor is successful in the phase 3 trial and gets FDA approval and becomes Avion lead drug as Art Deas has predicted then the future value of IMM will be in the hundreds of millions and most of us who held will be millionaires, 2 weeks time we will find out if the FDA have given approval… we are funded for at least the next 6 months…. BOD took £100k in the placing, all to play for from this all time low level especially those lucky Investors who bought at 5p! If I had any spare funds I would be topping up myself, friend of mine took £30k in the placing and intends to hold for 5 years, boom or bust it’s what aim is all about, GL All, not long until the 29th August, hopefully the starting gun will be fired on this sleeping giant
Wig
We all know about possible further dilution from warrants, Lanstead share issues and out of the money options but that is to come.
Ultimately the investment case in respect of Immupharma will all be about valuation and market cap.
If Lupuzor is approved then the valuation will be based on future royalties and milestone payments
If such income streams are €100 m per annum plus,dilution will not be a factor.
If Lupuzor fails who gives a monkeys about dilution.
With due respect dallo, that is not right. The shares potentially face highly material dilution from options and warrants, limiting the upside, a fact that I had erroneously believed was reflected in the deferred share count. Our friend cuvio is right there, but he is wrong to state that the fully diluted number of shares is 325m. He can delight himself in his own time by looking up the definition of “full dilution” and realising his error. On the subject of whether full dilution calculations should be shown in an investor presentation - of course they should, if the aim is to give a true and accurate reflection of the investment proposition. This is particularly the case with imm, where it has a highly material impact on valuation. Yet IR chose to omit them… Exactly what is the impact of full dilution at the minute? No one seems to know… it was circa 25% back in November 2020, but I suspect post multiple raisings, the number will have jumped again. ATB
The RNS last Thursday which must be approved by the company's Nomad and is vital stock exchange requirement clearly states that following the Broker Option the issued share capital of the company is 325,800,000 odd and this is the figure that investors must rely on in the event they have a declarable interest.
End of argument imho
Cuvio - your statement that the fully diluted number of shares is 325m is completely wrong. In the November 2020 RNS, the company reported 311m shares on a fully diluted basis, and since then we have had multiple rounds of further dilution. So I ask again, what is the fully diluted number? If the deferred shares figure does not reflect it, then what does? The point that you have sat through the AGM and the investor presentation, and still believe the figure is 325m, is testament to the point that IR has failed to make the basic figures clear to you (or anyone). ATB
Cuvio not Curious.
Curious
You are 100% correct about the deferred shares.
Purely arose from the reduction in the nominal price of the shares from 10p to 1p to accord with the Companies Acts requirements regarding issuing shares at a price below the nominal price .
The deferred shares have nil rights or value
The fully diluted number of shares right now is far higher than the 325m you state, and any investment decision based on a valuation using that number will be a poorly informed one. The reason you and many others here are poorly informed, is because investor relations have thus far failed to give any clear guidance as to what the diluted number is, or will be post the latest dilution. The last time they gave clear guidance was November 2020 in a total share capital RNS, and it was around 300m then - there has been multiple dilutions since… Of course, knowing the diluted number of shares in issue is key to making an appropriate investment decision - unless you are somebody who is ok buying things without checking the price first. ATB
So what is the fully diluted number of shares, cuvio? Simple info that should be made abundantly clear by IR in a one hour presentation.
“At last, someone who understands what they are talking about..” … indeed lambo… you post on a daily basis and clearly haven’t got a clue what you’re talking about :)
At last someone who actually understands what they are talking about, good post Cuvio, Wigwammer is clueless and as I suggested to him he should go seek professional advice rather than posting things as fact on this board when he is 100% wrong
First, thank you for conceding that the fully diluted number of shares here is around 610m - an outcome which should have been made clear by IR in the investor presentation. Second, the status of the deferred shares is they will be redeemed as/when anything good happens, diluting the upside to ord holders by up to 87%. Have a lovely weekend.
Yes but do you know the status of the deferred shares??
And respectfully, you need to do some research.. “ Total Voting Rights… Fo llowing Admission, the Company's issued share capital will comprise 325,803,104 Ordinary Shares with one voting right each and 284,984,933 deferred shares with no rights to vote. ”
Wigwammer respectfully you have no idea what you are talking about, I think you need to seek some professional advice before making incorrect statements on the number of shares in issue here
Pokerchips - to repeat, the diluted number of shares in issue here is 610 million, with the deferred shares representing a further 87% dilution to the ords if/when exercised. It should be a minimal expectation of an investor relations function to make information of that materiality abundantly clear to all investors. Instead, they did a one hour presentation and, as far as I remember, it was never mentioned. In fact, management stated that the market value here was under £20m - well, yes it is, if you conveniently ignore the prodigious deferred share dilution. I’ll leave it up to individuals to work out whether the omission of such material info represents good IR practice or not. ATB
@ Jenforluck
Avion may throw millions at this but it wont be targeted to ease IR for IMM. The reality is Avion have IMM by 'the short and curlys' The P3 results imo will be very good, however, a possibility of recommendations before moving to stage 4. On the face of it, this would be welcomed news to shareholders providing Avion move quickly.
I just don't see them being that charitable knowing that time is running out for IMM. I have always maintained that Avion have been dragging their feet and that view has not changed. They want all the revenue and all the royalties for themselves. They will get this from the administrators who will only be too happy to take their share of the pie.
I dont think it is IR job to spoon feed retail investors with regards understanding the share structure of the company or even the meaning of the Financial structure of its largest shareholder ...... RI should seek professional advise rather than rely on IR to provide some sort of guide for Dummies ......
When the largest shareholder is the Finance Company helping to keep the lights on , then you have to know you are in a higher end risk investment ....doesn't mean it is a scam ... but it does mean who have to know what exactly you are entering into
just have to understand the financing situation.... and fully