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I’d agree with Wigwammer here, when they buy shares they are committing that money for a very very long time, as if they decide to cash in at any point it wouldn’t look good. The fact that Tim took £60k is a positive as he’s never ever taken that amount before and even though I assume he’s well off it’s not a small amount, directors took 10% of the placing not many directors on aim do this so we should at least give them some credit because they didn’t have to, I also must say that Lisa is always happy to have a chat and is very easy to talk to. The most important thing here now is FDA approval in 2 weeks time, that’s the key event in this companies history, good news and this sleeping giant wakes up, the potential has never been in doubt it’s just the delivery… but after a 3 year wait it all comes down to a meeting 2 weeks today to decide the fate of IMM… boom or bust place your bets now it should be one of of a ride
My guess is they have to consider what they will be willing to hold and potentially lose over the longer term. They can’t play the game of selling up prior to the phase 3 if/when the shares recover because - as management - that will never look good. Different story for PI’s however, who aren’t constrained in the same way.
These arguments all seem pretty academic to me. Bottom line is if FDA approval is granted, share price should go up. My hunch is it'd still be in single figures once the dust settled, but who knows. And if FDA approval isn't forthcoming, Avion will pick up IMM's "assets" from the administrator. I'd largely ignore Tim'n'Tim's recent bullish outlook presentation to investors. Whilst they've plenty of share options, the amount invested with their own hard cash is hardly an overwhelming vote of confidence. How come if they're SO confident of FDA approval & a successful subsequent P3 trial?
Are you really this thick Wigwammer haha, any money received from Warrants goes to the balance sheet, you cannot possibly work out 47% dilution based on the different prices of the different warrants, tell us all again about the deferred shares your knowledge is wonderful haha
“You mentioned the figure of 107 million warrants in total , but my figures are much higher circa 154 million “… wouldn’t surprise me at all. A 47% potential dilution not mentioned in the investor presentation. Ho hum..
Not a director of Alora I should say
How can Dallo answer that question? He’s an investor no a director of Nolupus, I’d love to meet you Nolupus I bet your a right laugh at parties, if your on Twitter let me know your name
Dallo,
How do you explain that Alora with all their millions/billions did’nt participate in this fundraising for some small change ?
No point arguing on this board, the fact is if the FDA approve the phase 3 trial in 2 weeks time the starting gun will hve been fired and this sleeping giant finally wakes up from its slumber, if the company again reaches an Mcap of £250m as it did previously during the last phase 3 trial all shareholders will be very very happy indeed, IMM has immense potential to change the lives of shareholders from this current all time low level, given the potential of Lupozor. Avion believe in it, Art Deas believes it will be their lead drug, they hve seen every last bit of data, reviewed it countless times, discussed it with the FDA for near 3 years… if they believe in it and are willing to spend $25m to prove it up then I have trust in their foresight, and I would suggest there isn’t anyone on this board who has even 5% of the knowledge of Avion, when it comes to the potential success of Lupozor. We are 10 trading days away from knowing the fate of IMM boom or bust it’s not long to find out, but if it’s boom it could be one hell of a ride
Lambo222,
I must be very stupid to think I am more foresighted than you …
Nolupus, are you as stupid as Wigwammer haha the Mcap is £16m atm if the Mcap gets up to £250m again then that’s a 15 bagger or there abouts, don’t need to divide any shares by anything if the value of the company goes up 15 times to reach £250m Mcap the share price will be 75p
Nolupus
Of course there will be selling if the FDA approves the Phase 3 but then some big players will take a 2 year view on success of a € Billion drug .
Their buys will swamp the PI sellers imho.
If you are a fund manager whether in the UK or the US an investment in Immupharma of a couple of million is not a problem and don't rule out the big US backers of Alora , a $billion private company, moving in.
DYOR
FDA decision a game changer imho
Nolupus
I have respected your views going back 6/7 years and your contrarian posts are appreciated as it gives balance to our discussions here on the board.
It is important newbies understand they could lose all their money if the FDA doesn't approve the Phase 3 .
Forget about the newbies I will lose £400k if the decision goes against us but I am a stubborn old man who has been in the markets for over 45 years and never sold even when things were bleak.
Anyway I have a breakeven of 15p on 2.75 m shares after participating in the broker option.
So duck or no dinner in 2 weeks time.
At least you can sleep well with no shares.
Dallo,
Uncle Tim got rid of the useless former managers.
My memory recollections of you being very harsh on Uncle like myself and more lenient on the founders :-
I understand that you are heavily invested here after averaging down on NuMErous occasions, which means your capital invested is increasing every year but the SP keeps decreasing with dilution due to bad management, imo
The green light from the FDA should see a lift in the SP , I agree , but maybe not as high as people would like , due to the millions of shares which could be sold by those that have got them at 5p
Only time will tell ..
Dallo ,
We have chatted quite a bit over the years and I have a good memory :-)
My contrarian points of view are disliked by many but whatever , I prefer to have an objective point of view which is not dictated by my trades ..
Not being a book writer , I keep my trades to myself usually :-)
My comments were basically in response to Lambo222, where he states 20 bagger from here , I say BS
Nolupus
What you will not accept is the FDA approval for a new Phase 3 trial is good news for Immupharma investors and will lead to a higher SP.
Is that not better than the liquidation we faced before Alora came on board and Uncle Tim got rid of the useless former managers.
Only someone with no shares like you
can't understand investors here have a chance of getting our investment back and maybe making a few bob.
We are not stupid and we know how long a Phase 3 takes but better raising funds as the decision nears and a rest of the world deal done with another Pharma than losing all our money.
Nolupus
What part of my post did you not read..
I said I would be happy with 30p.
In fact I would delighted with 20p over the next 12 months..much better than zero
I am a Immupharma war veteran by the way
Why don't you buy a few shares and join the faithful?
Dallo,
I prefer it when the board is factual and not too blatant Rampy or doom and gloom .
The facts are as you know and I recall
Mid cap approx £ 250 mill , a few months before the readout , when the P3 trial was already fully financed by IMM and when they had full ownership to ´ A annuel billion dollar drug with no competition except benlysta ‘.
There were hundreds of people on this board buying castles and Ferraris with their future gains ..
We know what happened next …
We also know where we are at this time after the funding fiascos.. ( Lind , L1 capital and Landstead )
When you say , they took risks , I would like to know what risks ?
Anyway , what is done is done , but the buck stops somewhere…
The new P3 trial ( when green lighted ) will take years ,and IMM , now have funds for a year ( heard that before ) . Further funds will be necessary to pay salaries / pipeline etc so , further dilution is to be expected.
The road is long and whilst one can be optimistic on a better outcome this time round , as lambo stated history has a habit of repeating itself :-)
´ You pays your money and takes your chances.´ I agree wholeheartedly, but it’s better to be factuel and calculate a realistic risk/reward ratio , imo
Nolupus
You are quite correct ..up to a point
Let's say Phase 3 moves ahead not funded by Immupharma this time but by Alora who will do so for $25m with no funds coming from Immupharma shareholders like the last time,then speculation even on a fully diluted SP could drive the SP to 25p plus or a market cap of say £100m.
If Lupuzor successfully goes through Phase 3 the potential royalties and other income of say for the US plus rest of the world of c$100/150 m would give a valuation of close to a $1 billion plus for Immupharma.
Dreamland I know but I would be happy with 30p
but Chairman Tim thinks it will be a success and obviously Alora and Art Deas does too.
You pays your money and takes your chances.
I don't know why you are so engaged having been correctly a bear on the share for so long with no skin in the game.
You are an interesting character as I have discovered over the past 6 years.
ATB
Lambo222,
Can you do a quick calculation ?
Divide. Your figure of £250 million ( which was the historical high point just before the P3 ended and there were approx 120 millions shares at that time)
By 480 million shares
The £250m Mcap is the key figure here, if all goes to plan no reason why this figure cannot be hit once more and that’s a near 20 bagger from this all time low level, it’s the either the opportunity of a lifetime at 5p or tge FDA screw us… 2 weeks to find out
Just a quick back of the envelope calculation taking into account the last two placings and RNS info ..
So I could be wrong ..
Cuvio,
You mentioned the figure of 107 million warrants in total , but my figures are much higher circa 154 million ??
325 mill + 154 mill = 479 mill
For perspective purposes, just before the last P3 readout , IMM had a £ 200 mill mid cap with circa 139 mill. Shares
One can see what dilution has occurred here just to keep the lights on ( luckily £ 10 mill was raised at 144p just before the readout )
Eyes to the sky but keep the feet on the ground …
Excellent posts Dallo and from someone who has a significant holding here, this is high risk high reward pharma, if Avion see Lupozor as their future lead drug and see sales of $1bn a year once approved, I don’t think we will be taking about a few million quids worth of warrants if IMM is getting $100m a year in royalties from the US market alone, from one treatment area!! This truly has life changing potential from this level, I mean £16m Mcap, the trial is fully funded for $25m alone!! The FDA approval opens the door for more licensing agreements, funding for the CIDP trial and other indications, this was £250m Mcap during the last phase 3 trial, no reason why this cannot trade in this range once again, history has a habit of repeating itself
Wig
Final point as I finish my Guinness..would you rather have 5% of a company worth £5m or 2% of a company worth £100m having been diluted by 60%.£.250,000 or £2m .