Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Share tip: Battery maker Invinity shows some spark
Lithium batteries are the fastest-growing fire risk, says the London Fire Brigade, which reports more and more call-outs to extinguish exploding ebikes and escooters.
Power sources once hailed as revolutionary are showing limitations — and Invinity Energy Systems has a partial solution. Its vanadium flow batteries will not be a replacement for an ebike’s lithium power — their minimum size is a 20ft container — but commercially, they could be vital. Vanadium batteries have a lifespan of more than 25 years, as the electrolyte doesn’t wear out in any significant way, they can tolerate a wide range of temperatures, and can charge and discharge very quickly. They also can’t ignite.
Vanadium flow batteries are also of intense interest to the renewables market; they can store solar and wind energy supplies for hours to deliver constant power to the grid.
Nonetheless, investors in Aim-listed Invinity have been through the mill. The group was formed through a 2020 merger of two troubled flow battery businesses, Avalon and RedT, and in essence it has been an expensive research and development project. The shares, trading at over £3 back in 2018, have spent this year bumbling along around the 40p mark.
But a string of new contracts is positive news, particularly a joint venture with German engineering giant Siemens. This deal, signed in 2021, has now resulted in a new iteration of the battery technology, Mistral, which is set to go on sale next year. It’s likely to be double the cost of a lithium equivalent, but to last more than four times longer — and the market has shown plenty of interest. “If you’re a utility or large commercial user, you’re interested in lifetime cost rather than capital cost,” said Alex Brooks, senior analyst at Canaccord Genuity.
Revenues rose tenfold to £14.8 million in the half-year to July, and are set to rise sharply: analysts have pencilled £25 million in sales for 2023 —and £53 million in 2024. Invinity has a record number of orders, across Australia and Canada as well as major work funded by the UK’s Department for Energy Security and the US Department of Energy.
The firm’s loss-making status, as well as its capital position, offer a red flag. Invinity has told investors it will need further cash in 2024, after a £16 million fundraising this year, and analysts expect it to finish next year with about £20 million of debt. And yet Invinity is set to have positive cashflow by 2025. It’s risky, but the firm’s tech is already on sale and impressing blue-chip buyers. Buy.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/share-tip-battery-maker-invinity-shows-some-spark-2ks8b0gmt
The troubles with Siemens are definitely something to keep an eye on for any consequences with IES. The company have been rather quiet on what they have been doing together, I don't think Siemens have ever made even a reference to Mistral in public? (Correct me if I'm wrong someone?) Having said that though, Siemens is one of the largest employers in Germany so I wouldn't be surprised if they get some help.
Anticipating strong growth ahead at Siemens Gamesa Energy. It referred to "preliminary talks" with different stakeholders, including banking partners and the Berlin government "to ensure access to an increasing volume of guarantees necessary to facilitate the anticipated strong growth.”
*on no negative news from IES directly
Siemens Gamesa/Energy in a right mess and the latter’s shares getting smashed today after reports they’re looking for billions in Government backed securities. Think this maybe why we’ve trended down quite significantly and alongside Siemens Energy recently on negative news from IES directly. Is a bit worrying and a lot of uncertainty at this time but if Siemens Energy gets the backing it’s seeking then things should recover but may all take some time
I think toneman makes an interesting point. I think there is a reasonable chance that the likes of Schroders and some other insti investors may very well convert their warrants more or less regardless of the share price. Some private shareholders might too but SP would need to be a lot closer to 50p for me to do it - probably 45p+ which I would hope it will be anyway.
Unfortunately the (IMO unwarranted) worry about fund raising is really holding us back so need at least one strategic investor in place asap.
Those warrants aren't make or break though. Yes they'd greatly help IES reach group profitability, which is expected when Mistral starts shipping in 2025, without excessive dilution but there's also the long awaited major strategic partnership that we're all hoping to hear of in the next couple of months or so.
Management has spoken on numerous occasions about a very busy quarter 4 news-wise, let's hope they deliver on those promises.
Feels like they're going to have to announce some spectacular orders following the recent "Solar & Storage Live" trade exhibition to stand any chance of collecting on those outstanding warrants for Christmas.
Can they postpone the Warrants again or is it the case they must lapse this time?
How many investors do you think would purcahse the Warrants anyway despite them being above SP? At first glance there may seem an obvious answer - none - but isn't there is a subtle distinction between purchasing shares from the current curculation versus giving your new money directly to the company in exchange for bringing new shares into circulation thus directly helping the company's cash-flow situation? It feels like if you were a large institutionaly investor you might choose to do that.
LTO has a lower energy density very high cost and no as compact a bit like a VFB but without the fire safety and lifespan
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium-titanate_battery
This article states most lithium batteries use graphite sideshow but I understand some use LTO as well
https://www.axpo.com/lt/en/energy-knowledge/Batteries.html
If not a clear run, this certainly gives Vanadium flow batteries a huge boost.
Https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/miners-race-realise-graphite-projects-china-controls-exports-2023-10-20/
Graphite biggest part of lithium batteries
I think it's got to be some kind of movement or transfer between market makers. If it was a genuine buy or sell it would have moved the SP considerably.
The trade just before 11 wasn't day traders either.
Announcement soon on Siemens soon
LW: So we have been working for some time with our partners, Siemens Gamesa and Gamesa Electric, their fully owned subdivision, they make wind turbines, and they have been looking for energy storage alternatives. And a few years ago, they determined that vanadium flow batteries made a lot of sense from their perspective for working with wind.
So we entered into a joint development process with them. Well, we're getting close next year, we'll be announcing the product formally and the first customer ship. Well, we applied to the US Department of Energy for support for this next-generation product alongside partners in the United States, the national resource renewable council for independent power producers, and the Department of Energy said that they were going to be providing funding for 84 megawatt hours of this new project.
Just to put that in context, in our entire history as a company, we have yet to deliver 84 megawatt hours. And in fact, the largest flow battery in the United States is 10 megawatt hours. So this is a major affirmation that we are headed in the direction of being able to make a big difference on the renewable energy infrastructure.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1029813/invinity-chief-says-vanadium-presents-a-real-alternative-to-lithium-batteries-1029813.html
Almost four weeks since the Interim Results and the extremely positive and bullish presentation that followed it - we must surely be due a whole raft of news throughout the rest of q4.
This could be very big indeed. Siemens Energy announce project with 160MWh battery energy storage. Although they don’t mention vanadium or Invinity, to me, this is exactly why Siemens Gamesa/Energy got involved with Invinity on Mistral
“Siemens Energy will deliver the first-ever hybrid grid stabilization and large-scale battery storage plant at Shannonbridge in Ireland.
The proven synchronous condenser technology uses a generator with a flywheel connected …the synchronous condenser provides power reserve, which instantly compensates for frequency fluctuations and strengthens the stability of the grid.
At the same time, a large-scale battery energy storage system can store or release excess renewable energy when it is needed. It provides a solution to maximize use of renewable energy, even when the wind is not blowing and with a capacity of around 160MWh the battery energy storage could supply around 9500 households with power for a full day.”
https://www.siemens-energy.com/global/en/home/press-releases/two-become-one-siemens-energy-combines-two-technologies-to-stab.html
Electricity prices are often set based on the 'marginal source' – the most expensive one that has to come online to meet demand. This paper found that in 2021, gas set the price for UK electricity 98% of the time (bottom-right corner).
https://x.com/_HannahRitchie/status/1711391933883392162?s=20
You would think that if they needed batteries to store some of the excess energy it will no doubt produce on some days, that they would have already got them in place by now.
After all we’d all be paying for them through the wind levies imposed on us all through our bills.
I think we’ll get there eventually but not in UK first
Https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/10/10/largest-wind-farm-world-start-supply-electricity-britain/
Batteries needed!
In the last week or two, we’ve seen a number of substantially bigger trades in size and I can’t remember the last time I saw such trades. Clearly some significant positioning going on as that’s not day traders IMHO! GLA
Hello, a bit more of the same from yesterday and this is looking interesting.