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Thursdays results There's no way I d s losing £1 million a day .Got to be circa 10000 on new contracts there abouts i m o . I guess big share holders will want to squease a bit more from D K.Packets and parcels up at I d s. Them 2 big hubs and forward guidance iff hees serious ? Get yir offer on the table Daniel too sway the big investors and save face.
I think the best thing that can happen is results Thursday to show positivity moving forward might get a slightly higher offer then you never no
If the French deals fails
You would think DK would double down on a deal for IDS
As the no French deal should free up a lot of capital..
In addition a no French deal, you would think , DK would make more effort to buy, because as a billionaire, he can't be seen to be failing to close off deals, wouldn't be good for his name and reputation.....
NOFEAR as you say we will have to wait and see, I am sure the billionaire Daniel K can afford a smoke mask and it can all change with the wind
Oh well JBTHISTLE
jt will all backfire in Daniel Kretinsky face. The French camp fire is already sending the smoke over the UK English channel.
Will Daniel Kretinsky be able to deal with it? All to be seen.
NOFEAR is it the post from AirForce that has caused your change of heart from 5 days ago when you had IDS as a strong buy? I don't think there has been too much negative press to suggest that the offer that the IDS board are like minded to accept is not likely to go ahead. You may not have seen the comments from the head of CWU saying he feels like its a done deal. I checked AirForce other comments as a fairly new poster and see he has commented on CPI board with what appeared a fairly negative slant (which you noted) so perhaps just his/her style and as always everyone has their own agenda. Have you seen anything else suggesting it may not go ahead or have you just changed your opinion?
Bigtimebilly
"What has this got to do IDS?."
It means that Kretinsky he's going to have a bad week with his European take over approaches.
It means that the French are not having none of it. Wise up and get ahead of the imminent stampede.
When the news of the failed bid hits the news media the ids stock will hit rock bottom on top of their
£1million daily losses foreseen soon to be announced. Don't get caught with your pants down
What has this got to do IDS?.
Atos bondholders reject Kretinsky buyout offer.
La Tribune reports By Reuters on the May 19, 2024.
PARIS, May 19 (Reuters) - Bondholders of French IT company Atos (ATOS.PA), opens new tab have rejected a buyout offer from Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky, French weekly La Tribune reported on Saturday.
The bondholders were reported to have cited Kretinsky's plan to wipe almost all of the company's debt and fears that he would break up the former blue-chip technology company, shares of which have lost 90% of their value over the past three years after a string of profit warnings, CEO departures and the collapse of potential asset sales.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/atos-bondholders-reject-kretinsky-buyout-offer-la-tribune-reports-2024-05-19/
The big shareholders are not going to make a decision about what price to sell at until Thursday results.
Initial bid 3.20
50p increase to 3.70 wins the board over
I reckon DK needs 20-30p plus to win over the major shareholders
Should be interesting on Thursday, results day
My opinion it's in the bag be positive.
Taken a nice profit this AM....this in my view is priced in on the basis that the takeover might , might happen but if the govt says no then back below £3....results day will be interesting but a competitive market...not one for me...good luck holders will watch with interest...
Interesting comments from DW on LBC. Some key comments I picked up were DW believes its a done deal and government juts going through motions.
CWU want guarantees from DK around investment and growth plans. The CWU will be arguing for a new business model with representation from workers and customers. No confidence in current board. Worth a listen if you can get access.
She*
I Spy.
Read thr link, then think about your first statement and how it could be wrong.
https://leahmontebello.medium.com/about
Please read the article again carefully and see why you're 2nd statement/questions might be wrong?
To answer your 3rd point why has he come to that conclusion?
Given there's been no IA this financial year, the sick pay etc changes are all now in place, and parcel deliveries are return to pre IA levels it's hard to believe losses haven't been reduced from £1m a day.
Same with my DO very few items don't get delivered by the second attempt and most probably get delivered eventually or are collected from the CSP at the DO. You have to sense the Times reporter as put 2+2 together and just made up that suggestion. Probably a better one is that DK feels that the USO changed will be agreed within a year and they will then lead to the £300m cost savings, if they do RM will be viable as a stand alone company and then GLS could be sold off or floated probably for most of the £3.5B he's paying for IDS.
@ LittleDickyBird.
Because somebody is getting paid for doing their job, does it make their opinion wrong? Only if you believe that.
Can you answer how RM are losing 1 million a day, which is the same figure as about this time 2022? The same 1 million a day was quoted by another CEO about 20 years ago. What is so magical about this 1 million pounds a day losses?
And as for """The basic first 3 year business plan of a new company is.""". I assume then that you think IDS will be profit making in 12 months time?
@ Talk2Much.
1 - The 300 million comes from the culling of 7-9 thousand routes, nationally. Whether the new proposal works or not, is open to debate. After the event. I guarantee you though, that failures will be baked into this figure.
2 - RFID? That's fine if you're are working weith packets. Then any scan will negate non delivery failure. An example would be if 100 items could not be covered for any given reason. All you have to do is scan all items as inaccessible. No delivery attempt, but no failure either on RFID items.
Spot checks? Don't make me laugh. Correct reporting? Even funnier. What about when there are no managers in the office when the majority of staff return? Do they report failures before the end of the day?
3 - IA. A bone of contention for many. But i agree. Solely for the fact that RM let strike action take place over crimbo 2022. I've never agreed with IA in the mass walk out thing. Now, if there was to be no overtime policy by the CWU, i'm all ears. It's the only thing that would actually work, IMO. And i didn't actually lose any money. But i cannot speak for the other 90,000 strikers.
4 - I have no idea either why OFCOM deem the USO in it's current format is profitable. But they do, and i'm certain that they have access to more facts and figures than you and i. Maybe they have access to the outdoor actuals, SISO, management time keeping and many other things. Who knows?
I will say this about the USO reform suggested by RM. It's very well thought out. Duties, or parts of, will still fail, but only on every other day. Any slack will easily be covered on overtime as there won't be enough to go around, so people will be desperate. You will lose 16% of the office budget for staffing. All good for shareholders.
I have no idea why OFCOM have put this on the back burner for now. I honestly thought it was a done deal.
There has been so much to read here and I'll post my thoughts without referring directly to posters because I can't remember who said what.
1) Where did they suddenly find £300 million for USO reform... They didn't suddenly find it - USO reform was always going to be worth a fortune to Royal Mail. What they have done is find a way to approach USO reform that doesn't need to involve any government intervention. For some reason Ofcom have decided that they don't want to intervene even though any government can distance itself from any changes and this is infuriating because it's one of the things holding the share price down and helping DK by IDS on the cheap.
2) Ofcom decisions aren't base solely on data provided by managers etc - RFID is used through the RMG network to identify what is and isn't moving and whether things are getting where they should be. Nobody can fudge that data. Also, if managers were providing false data, it's fair to say that it's one of the quickest ways to lose a job in RMG. Spot checks are done on offices and the state of the office is compared to what the manager has claimed, so any manager would be foolish to suggest their performance is better than the facts would show.
3) IA - are you seriously kidding me? Not in a lifetime after what every postie had to deal with through the last bout of IA... lost shed loads of money, got an ok deal for themselves but Ts&Cs changed for all new entrants, sick pay changes for all staff... only the truly militant would consider IA and they are in isolated pockets so the suggestion of IA is, imho, nonsense.
4) It would take far too long to cover off how people suggest that Ofcom believe the USO could be profitable. What they say is that at a given profit level the USO is sustainable - not that is it inherently profitable. They don't suggest how we could make it profitable, but given that the largest cost element is people who are spending more time moving and less time actually delivering, perhaps they think we should pay them less or make them work harder. Efficiency is a huge focus in offices, and whilst there are many things that people can flag up as ludicrously inefficient or a waste of money, those areas of wastage wouldn't help a great deal if they were removed entirely because of the huge overheads involved in letter delivery which is very difficult to make cost effective when you are frequently walking or driving past at least half of the properties you could deliver to.
I stand by what I've said before. With USO reform and the current leadership I see nothing but upside in IDS, which is why DK is so eager to get hold of us now. I'm not a fan of conspiracy theories, but if Ofcom won't make a decision on USO thus keeping the share price low, IDS goes to DK and the Government starts using external ownership as an excuse for any shortcomings.
@ HoundDog.
When the service point system (SPS) computerised booking in system was installed in my office about 6 years ago, there were up to 300 items per day being booked in and stored. Fast forward to about 3 years ago, with the update on inflight items. Request a day, a post office or a neighbour on any given day, and the " P739, sorry you were out items" had dropped to about 150. Since the more recent "if you are out we'll attempt redelivery the following day" initiative, P739 items have dropped to about 30.
I'm not sure how lucrative these lockers are. Yes, they can or should be delivered, where you want, when you want. But for 30 items a day, in my office? And, surely these would not include special deliveries. Which make up most of those 30. What about age verification? Or is that a done thing now?
I will add that there are over 25,000 residential delivery points in my area. Not my figure, but the chap who deals with the planning etc.
There is a column in The SundayTimes by Oliver Shah speculating on why Kretinsky is looking to buy IDS when, when interviewed last year, he said he had no intention to do so and said RM would be be better off being part of a public company.
A reason being given for the change of heart is the perceived need to move into out-of-home delivery, particularly lockers. Apparently Kretinsky has in mind 10,000 locker stations for RM and several times that across Europe for GLS. Total cost £600m, an investment which he thinks shareholders in a public company are too short term to tolerate. Probably correct, given everything else going on in RM which near term impacts results. It would almost certainly involve an equity fund raise and short term dilution.
10,000 locker stations could probably handle 80m parcels out of RM’s 1.5bn.
I doubt this is the only or even main reason but it is interesting that Kretinsky sees out-of-home as another main battlefield for RM.
What sort of time scales do we reckon is likely for a takeover? Got in about a month ago so weighing up whether to sell up now or wait for the 370p total a share?
Hey Steve Just phone Amazon, give 'em your bank details and they will send you some.