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Hard to say Jezzo - I would say though its probably a disagree - I think there a fews things that could bump this up before next winter.
Returning to the results:
1) Absolutely no surprises - they had already previoulsy guided on YE NOI, debt and Cash and the results were entirely consistent with this guidance. A couple of people (actually mainly one) on the ADVFN BB were commenting on the profits collapsing but again this should not have been a surprise to anyone running the numbers and in fact in WHI's report from a few days ago had the same number for 2023 .
2) There were a few things that I thought were positive - tax and SG&A were lower than I plugged into my model.
3) De-Commissioning provisions ticking down nicely
4) Gas Hedges - i3e have place gase Hedges in the CAD 2.70 range for production April through November 2024. There are hedges at CAD 3.00 / GJ from November 2024 onwards - so this is counterparties actually putting money on the line betting that Gas will be above these levels later in the year.
I would take 16p quite happily but unlike perhaps many others my average is 9p and only held them this year,
It would be even more disappointing if in another 2 years we're still below 16p though. Have to keep in mind we've been given a couple of pennies in dividends the past 2 years. But if I were a major holder right now I'd be very tempted to take 16p rather than sitting and hoping AECO is resurrected in the next 24 months. This is why 16p I think would be considered given where we are now. AIMHO GLA
16p after over 6 years as a holder would be a disappointment.
one more thing i should add is we're a very tasty t/o option right now. no debt, 180m 2p reserves, **** ton of drill ready locations, and likely commodity price upside from all the pipelines coming online and access to global gas market. that's the other possible outcome here. and the longer we stay at these levels the more attractive a t/o offer will be for our major shareholders. reckon 16p would get over the line right now. aimho gla
Stas, you were right that it was me offloading last week. I dropped about 1.5m shares at an average of 11.4p. I was hovering before the development plan wet f@rt landed - I got 150k away in the high 12's the day before and was going to drop 1m. Only if eh.
Very good value again now. Anything up to 11.5p is good to very good value with +$70m NOI and +20k production. Anything near 10p and I'll be shifting a lot of cash back into here. Horrible to watch £100k evaporate in two trading sessions. Hopefully a bounce back up to 11p which seems fair value until we see the direction of AECO.
Reckon this is a hold until H2 before seeing some strength if gas prices turn upwards and look to be staying there for the next year or two. If so I think this will bounce back to the 13-15p range this time next year. As another poster has commented, any other jumps will rely on more asset / land disposals, or a decent f/o. For those of you hoping for director buys, good luck on that one. Majid won't part with anything substantial from his $600,000 salary. He prefers to take cheap options instead. One thing that would help is a reinstatement of the monthly dividend. If AECO improves then 25-35% value uplift and a 10% dividend on top over the next 12 months. Decent return, but it will require AECO to take a step-up in that time. Decent numbers and good safety margin in between though. GLA
Is that YAWN agreeing or disagreeing ?
You didn't make yourself clear.
"Only M&A news will shift this between now and next winter."
YAWN.
Full year 2023 results
I3 has released its full year 2023 results, demonstrating the cash generation capability of its business, and funding position going into the increased planned 2024 CAPEX programme, where new drilling is expected to begin in June.
2023 results show steady cash generation. I3’s 2023 results include net production of 20.7mboe/d (previously reported), compared with 20.3mboe/d in 2022. This resulted in revenues of £146.3m, lower than the £208.4m reported for 2022 on lower commodity prices. EBITDA for 2023 was then £67.2m, compared with £98.0m in 2022, impacted by the revenues but with unit OPEX better at £9.4/boe versus £10.3/boe in 2022.
Free cash flow generation was then £13.2m, from £14.2m in 2022, on lower CAPEX spend during the year. End 2023 net debt was £11.1m – broadly steady compared with the end of 2022. This all demonstrates I3’s portfolio’s capability to generate cash and support the company’s current dividend (which was cut to current quarterly levels during 2023).
Forward programme of increased activity and CAPEX, funded from new debt facility, asset sale, and cash flows. Last week I3 announced its 2024 work programme and budget, guiding to a CAPEX spend of US$50.9m including drilling of 15 new wells (10.5 wells net to I3), with drilling beginning in late Q2. This is expected to support annual 2024 production of 1819mboe/d, with a 2024 exit rate of 20.3-21.3mboe/d given the H2 weighting of the drilling campaign. Pad development drilling on I3’s Simonette Montney acreage is then expected to begin in Q1 2025.
Given the upcoming programme, 2024 is set to be a busy year for I3 once the new drilling programme gets going, with significant opportunity to add new production, particularly gas volumes going into the 2024/25 winter. Funding is available from the company’s new C$75m debt facility and recent US$25m royalty assets sale. We would expect this programme to continue supporting cash flow for dividends, and future growth programmes based on the substantial 180mmboe net 2P reserves position.
I3 Energy overview. I3 is an E&P company focused mainly onshore Canada, with producing assets across central Alberta, Clearwater in northern Alberta, and Simonette and Wapiti/Elmworth in western Alberta. These hold a total 180mmboe of net 2P reserves. The company also has the Serenity discovery in the UK North Sea. I3 produced at 20.7mboe/d net in 2023, generating EBITDA of £67.2m and FCF of £13.2m after CAPEX of £24.3m. The shares are on a prospective 2024 dividend yield of 9%, and there is a busy 2024 work programme beginning in late Q2 to drive new production volumes.
IBB_INVEST,
With respect - whilst your post is correct to point out that that Razor Energy had gone bust and therefore would affect the weightings of the remaining stocks in the portfolio, its incorrect in respect to suggesting that Shubham Garg has not increased his holdings in i3e . Refer to the twitter post below with a snap shot of the portfolio from January v April and you will note:
1) Razor Energy was only an 8% holding in January and missing in April. I3e went from 3% to 7% - i.e. it more than doubled. Surge Energy his second biggest holding went from 20% to 28% i.e. went up only 40%. A similar situation can be observed with other holdings
2) Vermillion was not in the portfolio in either January of April so had zero impact on the wighting during this period
3) Obsidian was in the Portfolio in January but missing in April. The SP appreciated significantly in this period - not sure what he did with the cash but it looks like he may have redeployed into i3e and other names - regardless he appears to have increased his stake significantly in i3e.
Its right to point out that he doesnt walk on water and it looks like he has made one or two bad calls but I dont think its by accident that he's ploughed more money into i3e which looks like a solid play.
https://twitter.com/search?q=white%20tundra%20until%3A2024-04-28%20since%3A2024-02-01&src=typed_query
"A positive set of results…….about time a rerate delivered"
It is.
To 10p by the looks of it.
Only M&A news will shift this between now and next winter.
The ESG element is very positive.
A positive set of results…….about time a rerate delivered
Time to buy in large Directors.
I wouldn't rely too much into this. Shubham' portfolio has had some zeros with Razor Energy bankrupcy and several call options (e.g. Vermillion) expiring worthless. The portfolio has therefore shrunk increasing the weighting of surviving holdings such as i3 Energy.
Yes, when I chatted with Shubham last year he was negative on i3E. He does, however, know AB province very well and has subsequently had a change of heart iro our acreage. The bumpy ride will continue until AECO TURNS.
For what its worth - it appears that Shubham Garg has upped his stake from 3% to around 7% in his White Tundra Portfolio, Shubham is one of the most knowledgeable Investors / Investors in the canadian Oil & Gas space - so quite a vote of confidence.
Picked up by Canuck on the CEO CA website - one of his more useful contributions !
Tony, the absence of a budget for the UKNS is, as you suggest, telling.
Success 50k alongside a nice divi to come.
Same here Fangkat 12:05
I've submitted the question about the RNS and monthly dividends to Investor Meet. They were very good at answering all pre-submitted questions last time, so I'm sure it'll be cleared up.
Been trying to get 50k more - cannot get a quote. Even 25k are being refused to buy right now. (11:45 -
Company's may be drilling in areas of known significant reserves in the NS. The risks are never the less, enormous when considering the current and planned tax implications ( under a Labour administration).
Funds are better rewarded in Canada.
Believe what you wish - despite the UK not being the most favourable jurisdiction - companies are still drilling and developing assets in the North Sea - even assets of the scale of a Tain + Serenity.
I'm pretty neutral on Serenity - if i3e decide to drop the licence - thats ok by me - if they decide to keep it and try to extract some value - so be it. I trust the BOD to make the right decision and imo they wont make that decision until they see what happens with Tain.
Good news for those wanting to top up with May's dividend.