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Reckon you might be surprised Spike. Michael Spencer owns 20% of the company and is a billionaire. He can watch us lose Penascola for nothing, which would cost him more than £10m. Or he can stump up £10m and make it all back and more. If I were him I'd hand over the money required to get both drills turning. I'm thinking today's news could have been to wipe-out the sp so a 20p raise is more palatable. We'll find out soon enough. GLA
“Not sure we could even sell a unified Tain and Serenity if they picked up the Tain license so probably best to drop and focus on Canada“
I’ve been saying for a long time there is no cash being paid for North Sea projects pre first oil. Serenity is worthless as it stands.
“I have no idea where they go from here, but think the best case scenario would be to find some parties with deep pockets and raise £10-12m. This would mean an extra 50% shares in issue at today's sp. “
G-G-G - Deltic announced in their RNS today that they did not believe they could raise equity.
Market cap now is £18million, any raising would be heavily discounted, so I’d suggest they would be looking at 100% more shares, but even at that there is no interest. I think the last hope is following the announcement today, someone comes and takes the rest of Pensacola off them, other than a small revenue share of maybe 3% if it ever gets to production, which frankly I doubt it will subject to a complete shift in political direction.
To answer your earlier question, yes I'm completely out of DELT. Too much risk now.
As for the f/o, given they managed such a great deal recently on Selene (well to be drilled in July) I think it was fair to assume the f/o was nailed on, and only a matter of getting decent terms. For it to not only fall over, but be flagged as potentially worthless and handed to Shell is almost unbelievable.
I have no idea where they go from here, but think the best case scenario would be to find some parties with deep pockets and raise £10-12m. This would mean an extra 50% shares in issue at today's sp. They can probably get an additional £1-2m from the market. And they have £5m in cash. So it's possible for them to get this over the line. And I won't at all be surprised if they manage to pull it off at this sp. If they do then I'll probably go back and pick some shares up as they're likely to jump very quickly post raise with 2 guaranteed drills and having maintained 30% of their significant discovery. Will have to wait and see now. They may have already spoken to parties who have said they'll stump up the money at 20p so need the sp to drop to these levels in order to sell the raise. Who knows. As you've said, this is AIM and you only need to look at what happened with SHG to see how murky the waters are in this market.
"probably best to drop and focus on Canada. I doubt this will have any impact on the sp as well"
- I expect if we dropped serenity, our SP might increase!
Thanks Stas. I have to say when I woke up and saw the rns today I thought the complete opposite was going to happen. I took a £100k hit today, which is a good (and last) lesson for me on speccies. My immense dislike of UK political parties knows no bounds at the moment, so agree on all Nth Sea comments today. The entire UK O&G industry is about to be wiped out by successive ret@rded governments. Not sure we could even sell a unified Tain and Serenity if they picked up the Tain license so probably best to drop and focus on Canada. I doubt this will have any impact on the sp as well.
Bottomsup - I trust the comment was made tongue in cheek. Some may have a problem with you starting a DELT thread on the i3e BB and then telling others to stick with i3e - please tell me you were talking tongue in cheek !
DELT is also a usefull reminder to any investor particularly new investors that there are no certs on the AIM. HIGH RISK / high return. Many have ignored the high risk part of the equation including myself in the past.
I followed the DELT story from a distance and reading some of the posts on their BB - I thought the farmout was nailed on. Was that the case and something has changed in the last few weeks or was the chance of a farmout over hyped on the the DELT BB. I dont know the answer but this highlights the need for every investor to do the necessary DD and not blindly accept what is posted on a BB.
Now agree that even if offered Tain we should pass. Best case is for Serica to take on Tain and we chuck in Serenity for future profit share
I don’t think any shareholder needs reminding how their share price is doing .
Let’s stick to I3e
😊
DELT - down 40% as I type. It would be interesting to hear whether GGG is going to hold tight or cut his losses and get out. The RNS was a poor read and is anything going to change between now and the end of May ?
In my view we should have got rid of serenity and all north sea a long time ago and concentrated on the cash cow of Canada and not the cash draw of the UK. I'd be pleased to see i3 become solely focussed on Canada, quite apart from what might happen to the UK taxes and levies were a labour government to get in, god help us!
There are no slam dunks when it comes to financing / farmouts - we'll see shortly how the SP reacts.
On a similar note - I'm beginning to lean towards the view that Serenity may be a dead duck - a couple of snippets from the YE report:
"There is a high cost associated with a field development plan and therefore it is contingent upon raising the necessary funds. There is uncertainty whether a one well development of the field would be commercial, and it is likely to require access to thirdparty production, processing, and transportation facilities. If the Group is unable to develop its North
Sea assets, i3 Energy Plc may not recover its loan and investment into i3 Energy North Sea Limited which could negatively impact the Company’s distributable reserves and ABILITY TO PAY DIVIDENDS. See Financial Statements note 3 where the carrying value of intangible exploration and evaluation assets has been identified as a critical accounting judgement."
"The Group considers the risk level to have increased in 2023 due to approaching the September 2024 deadline for FDP on the P.2358 licence."
The good news for i3e is I think the market has already written off Serenity and if it does not advance - then it should spark an effort to trim uk costs which would be a positive.
Also possibly explains why i3e undertook another Capital Restructure so soon after the previous one - i.e. to offset the impairment charges and allow the payment of dividends.
Unlucky on your Shares in Deltic energy
Tough when you a small company and can’t get a partner due to the Government standing on oil .
Hope the company finds a partner and finance.
First of all I inferred that Shubham Garg had increased his holding - I did not say that he had "doubled" his holding. My only reference to "doubled" was in reference to weighting within the fund .
"You have zero knowledge that Shubham doubled his position in i3 Energy" - I do have knowledge , not by how much but I do know he has added and now the weighting is 7% up from around 3% previously . I have not mislead anyone.
With a near 12% Yield I bought in today for my Sipp.
Reliance buys its first Canadian crude from Trans Mountain pipeline, sources say
As for being a long term investor, I've been here since the insider trading days of our failed Nth Sea exploration wells. So Tony and I have been sparring every now and then for years. How long have you been an 'investor' here? Sounds like you're a bit salty about the recent pull back. Don't worry, it's part of being an investor in i3e. You'll get used to it if you stay here for a few years.
bit of a weird little rant there ibb. firstly, i'm not sure anyone on here kisses my feet, and certainly not tony. i'd also say it depends on how you define the word 'investor', but holding onto a stock when it's likely to go down isn't exactly smart investing now is it. i'm guessing you're one of those types who believes 'investing' is sitting in a stock no matter what. thankfully i'm not, which is why i managed to get out in the high teens and buy back in the 9's. you should try it some time.
as for 'doing homework', who gives a ****. it's not about who provides the information, it's what you do with it. i like to read everyone's views on here, positive and negative, and appreciate the workings of people like tony. ultimately it's my call on where to 'invest', and it all boils down to whether you're making money or not. thankfully i've done alright out of i3e. nowhere near as well as i could have done, but nowhere near as bad if i held all the way down to the 9's.
and yeah i like to call my trades, in and out, like many on here. i'll let you know when i start accumulating again :)
Why should Tony or any longer term i3 Energy investors show GGG respect and kiss his feet. He knows little about the company or the Canadian O&G industry en large. He trades in and out of this company on a weekly basis posting his trades like investing is some kind of genital measuring contest. He’s not an investor and warrants little respect from those that are investors and do the homework like Tony.
Tony, you just love to be always right and argue for the take of arguing. You have zero knowledge that Shubham doubled his position in i3 Energy. He may have however it could also easily because of confirmed losses in other holdings. You are misleading investors by saying with surety that he has doubled his i3 position and it’s a seal of approval etc etc. Happy to be proven wrong if you want to contact Shubham and confirm.
Hedges are listen in todays RNS - read down nearer to the end.
Zeus broker note has I3e for 2024E year end EBITDA £46m free cash flow £13m and Debt of £19.6m
Will not be surprised at all if we see some director buys now, they know they have dividend coverage and who doesn't want to take almost 10% yield whilst expecting capital appreciation on a very low share price.
yes, a director purchase and a return to monthly dividends and I think that puts pay to Jeezoo's post.
Tony, regarding the gas hedges you refer to, I don't see these in the 2024 Capital Budget RNS or the Final 2023 Results RNS.
Are you getting this information elsewhere?
ie "There are hedges at CAD 3.00 / GJ from November 2024 onwards"
Not to forget
Investor Presentation
Majid Shafiq, Ryan Heath and Jason Dranchuk will provide a live presentation relating to i3 Energy's 2024 Capital Budget via the Investor Meet Company platform on 2 May 2024 at 12:00pm BST.
The presentation is open to all existing and potential shareholders. Questions can be submitted pre-event via your Investor Meet Company dashboard up until 9am the day before the meeting or at any time during the live presentation.
Investors can sign up to Investor Meet Company for free and add to meet i3 Energy plc via:
https://www.investormeetcompany.com/i3-energy-plc/register-investor
Investors who already follow I3 ENERGY PLC on the Investor Meet Company platform will automatically be invited.
Additionally, i3 is pleased to announce that an updated corporate presentation will be available on the Company's website https://i3.energy/ coinciding with the Investor Meet Company live presentation.