Sapan Gai, CCO at Sovereign Metals, discusses their superior graphite test results. Watch the video here.
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Nickel will shine again not like the previous surge. Restrictions on Russian nickel will take the toll. Because if not wrong, its premium segments or higher class contribution to metal is very high between 6% to 40%.
Its ironic that the Nickel price was up over 4% on Friday (now spot is over $19,000, Dec 27 Future $21,700)
2/2
It really concerns me how this has been handled, clumsily written RNS’s with no follow up explanation, no emails from the company with detailed updated or Proactive Investor interviews keeping us informed, just RNS after RNS each time halving the value of the company.
The first questions I have is where is why haven’t we been able to connect the power lines and energise the site?
All 126km of power lines are in place, Twitter has pictures of Jeremy Martin viewing the construction of the substation in Sept 2023 and the last pictorial update show what appears to be a completed substation with transformers in place with a power supply building completed.
We were told that the delay was due to connecting to the Hydro dam, that energising the site was on the critical path and money was been diverted to it and that it we could see a connection by early 2024.
It’s now April and not a single word, we could really do with this win and it seems easily obtainable.
The ability to show that we have successfully completed a major part of construction and that no more cost expected is hugely significant and potentially transformative but nothings mentioned.
It’s also a chance to showcase the low cost power supply deal we managed to obtain as well as Horizonte’s green status. It also evidences how far construction has come, why haven’t we got this done?
Secondly why hasn’t the PFS for line 2 been produced? Much of the infrastructure is shared so included in line 1 costs, line 2 PFS should be easier to produce and come in at significantly lower cost with a shorter and less risky build for the same profitability as line 1.
We’ve already completed a good part of production, the furnace is on site, piers for the rotary kiln poured and the rotary kiln in place, these are now known and demonstrable costs that strengthen the credibility of that PFS
In addition in we’ve already purchased $60 million of the equipment for line rotary kiln for $7m, only $600K of which is up front. We have known what that equipment is and its cost since December 21 so this should have made line 2 PFS significantly easier
Given the profitability of Line 2 is the same for line 1 and 2 and you’re looking to raise finance I don’t know why this has been delayed, it should have been issued very shortly after the updated line 1 but again no news
https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/1208-tsx/hzm/112103-horizonte-minerals-plc-announces-acquisition-of-ferronickel-processing-equipment.html
I don’t see either our former CEO or our current one hustling to make this work. I’ve emailed them several times over the years with various questions but never got an answer perhaps if we all ask them the same question then maybe we’ll all get a reply.
I’m currently off after an operation to have my tonsils out so have more time on my hands that I normally would and this is a long one so feel free to bug out when you get bored.
I’ve been heavily invested in Horizonte for some time and been thinking about the situation we find ourselves in and wished to air my thoughts and ask you to do one very simple thing before we finally go down the toilet, can you please send an email to Horizonte investor relations asking three simple questions
https://horizonteminerals.com/uk/en/contact/
1) Why haven’t you completed the feasibility study for A2?
2) Why haven’t you done a Proactive Investor presentation to update Private Investors?
3) Why haven’t the power lines been completed so the site is energised?
The reason for this is simple, I’m calling bull$hit.
I started investing in Horizonte about 6 or 7 years ago, for all the bear picture currently painted around Nickel it had been trading at around $10,000 a ton for some time with a suggestion from reliable sources that it could raise to $16,000 by the time the mine was built. LME warehouse levels were over 300 hundred thousand tons but steadily declining.
Horizonte, even with a mountain to climb and 100’s of millions to raise was trading between 1.8 and 3p the equivalent of 36p to 60p with a market value of around 80 to 100 million. During this time Orion mine finance made significant investments with both Glencore and La Mancha joining them afterwards
From then we’ve jumped through countless hoops, completed permitting, secured a shipping dock and a power supply agreement at 30% less than that used in the feasibility study, gone through multiple due diligence processes with both banks and investors and had a number of oversubscribed placing going on to over raise finance by 100 million.
We’ve broke ground, become a nickel miner, started stockpiling, started a major programme of works and took delivery of major components. We are now 60 to 70 percent complete and 1 to 2 years away from ramp up depending if we slow time it or not.
As I’m writing this email Nickel is currently at $19,041 a ton (although I’ll give you its jumped 4% today on the news of Russian sanctions) and the LME Warehouse levels sit at 73,758 a quarter of what they were 6 years ago.
Yet we are told that we are unable to raise any money due to uncertainty over profitability due to insecurity around nickel prices?
https://horizonteminerals.com/uk/en/npv_calculator/
For those who haven’t seen it Horizonte have a NPV calculator, it’s well out of date with the capital costs at the original $443m, even adding an extra $500 at today’s Nickle price horizon profits are huge, around 3 billion in profit over the 28 year life of the mine, a >30% rate of return.
Jeremy Martin called it robust economics and he wasn’t joking. I’ve struggled over the last six months with the declining share price and rereading these bulletin boards, nobody seems
Of a deal here and.............. 100% owned surely a Glencore/La Mancha fund to production for a % of the project could be on the cards, why not? In the next year or two I can see big EV/Steel manufacturers wanting to distance themselves from Indonesian Nickel for many reasons but mainly the ecological disaster that they are creating does the EV industry's green credentials no favours.
Just looking at friday sells and it is over 2mil. Extrapolate this out for a month and it becomes over 60mil. We know that some big players such as Helikon got rid of about 4% min. of their holding so tells me that someone is stacking up seriously. Is this the three cornerstones or is it just traders looking for a fast buck. If it is the cornerstones, then they would now own about 75% of the company.
The shares are cheap so why not do it.
Orion are now cash rich ( $400m for sale in copper mine)
Glencoe now saving $300m on a lossmaking copper mine.
Both LM and Glencore offering $100m each for another mine, but lenders could not agree terms.
Is it not possible that they could fund continuation at HZM. They are heavily invested so why not see the mine built. In 2026, the nickel price will have risen, and global stocks will have started to decrease as unprofitable mines close and China takes up almost all of Indonesian T2 nickel. The western world will begin to look out for free nickel. HZM fits that bill .
I could be just making pie in the sky here, but surely, with the returns possible, then is it not in their best interests, after they have exhausted all other possible avenues, to seriously consider a further big investment here. If they announced it, then the sp would rocket back up to around £1 per share, making their holdings worth a lot of money.
Just my thoughts, usuually way off the mark though.
Lots of sells again, but who on earth is snapping them all up?
Is it possible that the cornerstones are buying more ownership or are the traders stocking up in case of some form of a rescue?
Too late to sell my shares as a few hundred pounds is neither here nor there.
I might as well hang on to them and either watch them go down like the Titanic, or rise like a phoenix from the ashes.
I think I know which way this is going however.
I think there is very little point in myself selling now. I had £20k in this but it is down to pennies now. Might have been a point of selling when the first bad news of underfunding came in. Big lesson. Hopefully I will be able to make some back with other investments over the next couple of years.
And stay away from AIM shares! :D
Hahaha was all yours
Everyone went quiet here
If there is a shrimp of FairPlay, there is recovery for shareholders. Sale of assets will definitely generate value for shareholders. Resource is intact. $500-700m already spent on project.
With such an ego and narcissistic personality like publican I imagine he is livid that most people didn’t get to read his final farewell and opinions before he deactivated his account .
Whoops 😬
In case anyone missed it, ThePublican777 has left the building. He left four long messages this morning mainly directed at Wasa with his usual messages to him. The last thing the publican said was he was emailing the administration to get his account deleted. Hence all his messages deleted as well.
Good luck Wasa. I’m in a similar, albeit slightly smaller, boat…I personally always appreciated your input and analysis. We got it wrong. That’s fine. I’ve made plenty of good decisions elsewhere which means I can live quite happily with the losses made here. I don’t seek or expect sympathy from anyone. My own mistakes led me here. No biggie. Life goes on and I’ll stick to real estate from now on.. 😂 all the best to all genuine LTH’s and the rest of the clowns can take a long walk off a short plank…
Wasarunner, thanks, and interesting story. If ever you feel that you would like to try small scale mining I am looking to expand exploration on my permit called Tekeledougou where Cora gold have worked on the permit for me. Mining for gold is easier than Nickel. You could email me on "mark325i at hotmail dot com" if you wish. All the best.
Just to offer closure because I think it will help (him), what was my loss. 6 but closer to 7 figures. I have free carry on other stocks from 50-60% sold but not doing so well. He'll come and hound me on those boards now but it's ok take responsibility for my own investment decisions. Would I do AIM again - of course not - but I'm guessing that's true of 99% of people who tried and failed. Is it rigged? Probably. It does suit the trader types who can see the ebbs and flows in sentiment, most junior companies fail of course. I guess many, me included, thought HZM was 'different' and ended up wrong. Matters not, sun is shining, off to plant potatoes. GLA and this time really farewell!
Really sorry guys and girls if my stalker is obsessing on the board I do feel sorry for you all, perhaps if I leave (which I am going to by the way because I'm no longer invested so there's not much to do here other than I could possibly berate others for not being smart like me and selling a couple of days ago - which is essentially what he is doing?) But that would imply I have no life so what's the point of staying on here when there's so much else to do in life.
I genuinely tried to learn on the board I took all views, never really understood why people came on here to warn of the perils of investing in the company my assumption was it was always because they might be short or want a lower entry, maybe that's a wrong assumption. The barman is here for something else, something eating him up inside, I can't place my finger on it but even after multiple departures and reincarnations he just can't give it up. I guess it's addictive. I've seen him post on other boards where he was previously invested (and I wasn't) generally telling everyone I told you so.I guess kicks can be had that way, not my style though.
So I bid you farewell, it has been a journey, some might say from 1.7p to £1.70 and back again, it went well for a while, I'm guessing many long termers took a hit whether now or months ago or through the placings. I don't think I was ever impolite or berated anyone, if I did, I apologies, I only offered my views and I didn't claim to know everything. Latterly it was obvious this became a lottery, I still question the motives of the main protagonists but I'll follow that in the news and digest in my own time, it matters not, my investment is no more. GLA and hope people can move on, publicans included....
You need to think about this like an iceberg. The equity is the part that you can see that is above the water, the debt is the underwater part.
You are all thinking that buyers might be circling to try and take a bit of the iceberg and you see the value compared to the equity and are assuming based on that value that can bite off more than the equity.
However what potential buyers are seeing is the whole iceberg including what is under the water - they can indeed bite off a huge amount more than the value of the equity, but they still don't get anywhere near to the surface due to the fact the bulk is below the surface, so your equity gets completely discarded.
Got to agree with you , but doesnt it strike you as odd that all 3 cornerstones ended up here in an unholy mess. Where was the due diligence? One just doesn`t and cannot hide the facts about the shortfall here. Were the 3 amigos off playing golf somewhere whilst costs escalated here. There must have been plenty of meetings with the BoD. Yes, the CEO hid a lot, but to suggest that this build would cost $500m, when other professionals suggested that $ 1b would be required tells me that the 3C`s had too many plates in the air and did not really scrutinise the numbers properly.
The CEO should be hounded out of any management control with any other companies. In fact, he should be taken to court by the lenders and the cornerstones.
As for whether this can be made into a profitable mine now only depends on the price of nickel.
Care and maintenance would be my preferred route until such times as nickel begins to become more valuable again. Probably 2-3 years minimum
Thee might be many people interested in the mine. What they are probably not interested in is paying to bail out existing shareholders when they can more likely get a much better deal after administration and they have much more leverage with the banks to force haircuts on the debt.
It is hard to believe that...
1) 100% owned. This is important.
2) Feasibility studies are completed showing a few $billion deposit.
3) Loans granted
4) 50% to 60% of the processing plant built
5) On time.
... with all this, and at a stage of near completion and there is no one is interested in this project? This is hard to believe,
This mine is comparable to the Glencore mine, sort of similar spec in terms of grade and life of mine.
Seems a bit odd to me.
To ask yourself how the main share holders who all had a member on the board allowed this to happen? The fact they own 52% of the company makes it look deliberate and they planned this all along.
Very oversold currently.................
I do believe that every shareholder should have a right to know what went wrong and not just the cornerstones.
"How on earth CEO didnot know about that trouble long time befoce that and did he do anything to announce so more solutions will be found than it is too late."
I'm not sure where you got this timeline from - the interim results were released on 17th August and then the announcement of a cost overrun was 2nd October so almost 7 weeks. The interim statements also included language highlighting risk factors that there were still substantial unknowns.
Its likely on 17th August they had some idea that some revisions may be needed but no idea on the magnitude - announcing uncertainties at that point was likely premature and no doubt holders would have been furious if that was announced in that way. They were likely working through the details at the time and discussing with financing stakeholders, but it was only the release of the definitive review end September, early October when they had to go back to the market.