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Good for me as I put some lunch money in yesterday, but with all the signs it's going under, why is it changing direction?
This will bounce back easily. The plant is in the process of being built, 40% was built in Jan24.
I know In gold mining terms, a plant cost $80/$100m to build.
Does anyone have the stat of this mining operation:
Projected life of of the mine in years? and approx. output per year?
Now it become gambling as 50 /50 and maybe it will return good . As it have same value and if someone jum in and buy all it can give a good trade .£ 5000 buy in is good gamble now if it lose that is we know if it can come back life it crazy up.
As the company has 2 projects, what is happening to the Vermelho project, and what is the likelihood the Chinese will come in and buy this given low MCap of the company. There might still be some life in this share.
Having been invested here for years I finally bailed out yesterday. I’ve lost £200k and in anybody’s view that’s a lot. I know now what I should have done. This has been a very expensive lesson. Since 2nd October I’ve analysed and reanalysed and basically went down the rabbit hole. There were plenty of people talking on each side saying it’ll go bust or everything okay and it be funded. Neither side of the argument could prove their case. I was in the camp of it being funded.
So what are the lessons I’ve learnt.
A) don’t get sentimental over a share. I truly believed in this project for various reasons but lost sight of what I was really here for, that to make a bit of money.
B) don’t overexpose yourself. Decide on what you can afford in one investment and don’t get sucked into investing more and more if it’s doing well.
C) if doing well slice. Always take profit when you can. Set profit goals. That can be 5% then sell the lot or wait until a level is reached to take out your capital.
D) the most important is on bad news always SELL. You can always buy back if things are turned around.
E) if for any reason you missed the opportunity to sell, don’t buy more, just sell. You can always buy back if things are turned around.
Araguaia alone is worth more than one billion dollar after this massive investment, project is profitable even nickel price at 14k per tonne
Emerging scenario, they will try to raise cash from subsidries or sell Aguira, $733n spent on Ag, aleast it should be sold $700m, and $300 should be distributed to shareholders. And Vermello can be developed later on
Bit of a mess, really. But who knows, maybe there's still hope. Could be a takeover in the cards, with the market cap looking tiny. Let's see how it all plays out.
Won't Glencore just do a deal whereby they agree to take the assets for peanuts?
If one had to guess which of glencore vs marandmel are likely to be better overall at understanding and predicting nickel markets and mining project economics & risks, me, i’d guess glencore probably have a bit more experience and expertise in that field than marandmel.
This is an old hat story. Glencore had pumped over £300m into this working operation each year for ten years, but nickel prices and high production costs coupled to a low nickel yield did its undoing. Orion also sold a large stake in a Canadian copper operation for just under $400m recently.
These guys are cash rich but seem unwilling to go the extra mile here. It may cost $40-50m to go into a care and maintenance mode, but HZM mine is higher graded than a lot of other nickel mines. and surely for a couple of years wait, they can assess future nickel prices.
China will take up the bulk of Indonesian nickel going forward and there is the high probability that Ni required by the Western world will start to become more difficult to get. Ni prices will therefore rise within 2-3 years time making HXM a much better cost effective project.
It is a shame that short sightedness is prevailing here. The three cornerstones have had their fingers burnt elsewhere. Maybe now they are being overly cautious here as it will take another 2 years to get HZM into production, by which time futures Ni demand will be much stronger and inevitably, Ni prices will have rebounded.
THE CORNERSTONES will hold their head up high as normal. Honestly this is just business you win some you lose some. Not sure how the rappers here will hold their head high. They need support.
You know what my position was for months even when HZM was at the dizzy highs of 170p. But now we need to support the losers here who have vanished.
Wasa, Lawrence and others you have my sympathies.
Totally agree . How the 3 cornerstone investors can ever hold their heads up high and call themselves experienced mining investment companies beggars belief. All 3 were asleep on the job. Incompetent at best.
All those years of planning to get to the point of building the mine, and it was a massive fcuk up. Monumental, unforgivable, incompetent, shameful fcuk up. You shouldn’t be able to get it this wrong and be allowed to be a director of a public listed company ever again.
300 million market capital to nothing in a few months.
No point crying over spilt milk every one was warned here but some people buy anything I guess
The Company does not believe that any of these options are likely to recover any value for the Company's shareholders.
WTF dont you understand it's plain as English, grow a pair and take it like a man!!
Https://www.ft.com/content/ad1f0489-ad29-4e27-89b4-b5618581401a
They still trying to sort out this issue.
I thought they had access to $713m
$633m
Then another $80m?
It's AIM fraud of the highest order, this is not the first and certainly wont be the last. All i asky guys is to stop clicking the strong buy as your opinion. Your despreation should not be pushing vunerable people into the worst investmnet they will ever make. Newbies will see that and without doing research and jump in!!!
This has days possibly hours left, they might aswell throw it in the bin or give it to charity, the company should have suspended it this mornng!!
Where is it gone wrong?
418m debt, some one mentioned here 150m is not drawn yet, so net debt 268m, if Co goes into admin interest payments will disappear. £258m spent by shareholders. Funny enough, BoDs is only talking about Aguira, not Vermello, and RNS says, no recovery for shareholders
Please dont misleed good honest folks money into what now is a dead duck!!
Not many positives to come out of the board statement, but there may still be ways forward. A couple of options are that LM and Glencore finally have to ptovide funds to either keep the project moving forward, or provide sufficient funds to suspend the project on a care and maintainance basis until such times as and when the nickel price begins to climb back up again, probably in 2027.
China wants to get growth at no less than 5% for 2024 and if they succeed, then more nickel from Indonesia will be used, bearing in mind that most of the nickel produced from Indonesia has already been offtaken by some majors around the world so there is not that much free nickel left.
USA and Europe are already imposing massive import taxes on Chinese / Indonesian nickel so this means that other sources will be required.
My thoughts are that the current nickel surplus will begin to evaporate by 2027, and couple to this the fact that some nickel producers have ceased production, then there is the prospect of a shortage in around 3 years time. If LM and Glencore provide C and M for a year, then it may be possible to attract new investors as the nickel surplus begins to fall. Who knows??
Cheaper to buy it after admin. Why spend more on takeover?