The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
2/2
It really concerns me how this has been handled, clumsily written RNS’s with no follow up explanation, no emails from the company with detailed updated or Proactive Investor interviews keeping us informed, just RNS after RNS each time halving the value of the company.
The first questions I have is where is why haven’t we been able to connect the power lines and energise the site?
All 126km of power lines are in place, Twitter has pictures of Jeremy Martin viewing the construction of the substation in Sept 2023 and the last pictorial update show what appears to be a completed substation with transformers in place with a power supply building completed.
We were told that the delay was due to connecting to the Hydro dam, that energising the site was on the critical path and money was been diverted to it and that it we could see a connection by early 2024.
It’s now April and not a single word, we could really do with this win and it seems easily obtainable.
The ability to show that we have successfully completed a major part of construction and that no more cost expected is hugely significant and potentially transformative but nothings mentioned.
It’s also a chance to showcase the low cost power supply deal we managed to obtain as well as Horizonte’s green status. It also evidences how far construction has come, why haven’t we got this done?
Secondly why hasn’t the PFS for line 2 been produced? Much of the infrastructure is shared so included in line 1 costs, line 2 PFS should be easier to produce and come in at significantly lower cost with a shorter and less risky build for the same profitability as line 1.
We’ve already completed a good part of production, the furnace is on site, piers for the rotary kiln poured and the rotary kiln in place, these are now known and demonstrable costs that strengthen the credibility of that PFS
In addition in we’ve already purchased $60 million of the equipment for line rotary kiln for $7m, only $600K of which is up front. We have known what that equipment is and its cost since December 21 so this should have made line 2 PFS significantly easier
Given the profitability of Line 2 is the same for line 1 and 2 and you’re looking to raise finance I don’t know why this has been delayed, it should have been issued very shortly after the updated line 1 but again no news
https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/1208-tsx/hzm/112103-horizonte-minerals-plc-announces-acquisition-of-ferronickel-processing-equipment.html
I don’t see either our former CEO or our current one hustling to make this work. I’ve emailed them several times over the years with various questions but never got an answer perhaps if we all ask them the same question then maybe we’ll all get a reply.
I’m currently off after an operation to have my tonsils out so have more time on my hands that I normally would and this is a long one so feel free to bug out when you get bored.
I’ve been heavily invested in Horizonte for some time and been thinking about the situation we find ourselves in and wished to air my thoughts and ask you to do one very simple thing before we finally go down the toilet, can you please send an email to Horizonte investor relations asking three simple questions
https://horizonteminerals.com/uk/en/contact/
1) Why haven’t you completed the feasibility study for A2?
2) Why haven’t you done a Proactive Investor presentation to update Private Investors?
3) Why haven’t the power lines been completed so the site is energised?
The reason for this is simple, I’m calling bull$hit.
I started investing in Horizonte about 6 or 7 years ago, for all the bear picture currently painted around Nickel it had been trading at around $10,000 a ton for some time with a suggestion from reliable sources that it could raise to $16,000 by the time the mine was built. LME warehouse levels were over 300 hundred thousand tons but steadily declining.
Horizonte, even with a mountain to climb and 100’s of millions to raise was trading between 1.8 and 3p the equivalent of 36p to 60p with a market value of around 80 to 100 million. During this time Orion mine finance made significant investments with both Glencore and La Mancha joining them afterwards
From then we’ve jumped through countless hoops, completed permitting, secured a shipping dock and a power supply agreement at 30% less than that used in the feasibility study, gone through multiple due diligence processes with both banks and investors and had a number of oversubscribed placing going on to over raise finance by 100 million.
We’ve broke ground, become a nickel miner, started stockpiling, started a major programme of works and took delivery of major components. We are now 60 to 70 percent complete and 1 to 2 years away from ramp up depending if we slow time it or not.
As I’m writing this email Nickel is currently at $19,041 a ton (although I’ll give you its jumped 4% today on the news of Russian sanctions) and the LME Warehouse levels sit at 73,758 a quarter of what they were 6 years ago.
Yet we are told that we are unable to raise any money due to uncertainty over profitability due to insecurity around nickel prices?
https://horizonteminerals.com/uk/en/npv_calculator/
For those who haven’t seen it Horizonte have a NPV calculator, it’s well out of date with the capital costs at the original $443m, even adding an extra $500 at today’s Nickle price horizon profits are huge, around 3 billion in profit over the 28 year life of the mine, a >30% rate of return.
Jeremy Martin called it robust economics and he wasn’t joking. I’ve struggled over the last six months with the declining share price and rereading these bulletin boards, nobody seems
Hi cleverthoughts
Just wondered if you could elaborate on this further to justify your arguement as it was a concern of mine.
I did some basic research and wages in para state are low even by Brazilian standards and roughly on par with Indonesian wages, Indonesia are using huge coal fired plants to generate the electricity presumably at a higher overall cost than the pre existing hydro plant were using
Given that wages are the same, power costs are presumably on a par if not lower and not subject to the risk of exposure to coal prices and the equipment is all new and state of the art , the pit is shallow open cast mining close to the processing site for easy transport and we’ve already paid 8 million in local infrastructure upgrades to connect to the main road network where do you see the problem to get to the lower quartile on global production costs?
Right, so now the people are in place,, why don’t the cornerstones chuck in 2 million each;, hoover up to 10 to 15% of the company and a 10th of what they previously paid then fund the rest on loan terms considerably more generous than the banking syndicate got for theirs
Everyone happy
Regarding break even , this is a useful tool
https://horizonteminerals.com/uk/en/npv_calculator/
Capital costs haven't been updated so take of an extra 300 million for only 2 billion profit on line 1 alone at today's price over 28 years life of mine ( they only did 28 years because their wasn't any point doing any more )
Line 2 its 3.2B
Saint smith if you go on Horizonte own web site the last construction update had pictures as well, it’s just if you look on hear it doesn't, seems to have more information as well
https://horizonteminerals.com/uk/en/press-releases/2023/construction-update-for-the-araguaia-nickel-project-3/
Seems they achieved a fait bit in a month before they scaled back
Be interesting to know if it’s still power on by Feb as it’s one of the two continuing work streams, be nice to start ticking off things as complete
Just looking at the Nickel markets
Glencore pulling out of New Caledonia will leave them 90,000 tonnes down on production and will free up $350 million they have written of in losses against the three mines there, they are having to buy Nickel to cover their supply obligations. They are contracted for all of Horizontes nickel and they need what Horizonte will produce, clean, environmentally responsible Nickel, is core to their current business plan of cleaning up their act. They're just in the process of hiving off their coal business for that very reason
Its clear than Indonesia and China are capturing the Nickel market, further mines will no doubt be forced to close. Horizonte seems one of the few places that compete, wages in the region are particularly low even relative to other areas of Brazil, shallow mining in an accessible area makes it easy to get to the ore and the ore to the processing plant.
The fact that were on hydro and locked in to a 10 year supply contract at a favourable price is a massive boon, not only in terms of carbon output and the desirability of the product as eco friendly but also the cost associated with building and running a coal plant in addition to your processing plant. At the moment Indonesia is subsidising the nickel production, this wont continue forever
This is still an attractive long term proposition whatever the stock price might be
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1251028/monthly-household-income-per-person-in-brazil-by-state/
https://www.ft.com/content/ad1f0489-ad29-4e27-89b4-b5618581401a
· As stated on 2 October 2023, Reta Engenharia has been retained to complete a detailed capital cost and schedule analysis which is expected to be completed by mid Q4-2023
· Araguaia Nickel Project Line 2 Feasibility Study ("FS"), which aims to double nickel production from 14,500 tonnes per annum to 29,000 tonnes per annum, to be published in mid Q4-2023
We’re at 9 weeks at least since reta engenharia were appointed With not much of Q4 left, anyone know why both of these reports are delayed?
Https://youtu.be/9-y9TqD6JFg
Watched this through a couple of times last night, if we’re saying the V is only wort what we paid for it at 8 million then at todays market price all this is worth 14 million???
If everyone was concentrating on yesterdays RNS then you could have missed Glencore buying Tecks coal business with a plan to spin it off with their own coal business with both indicating they wish to concentrate on cleaner metal products
https://www.mining.com/glencore-ready-to-spin-off-coal-unit-after-sealing-tecks-buy/
Sepanta dori is head of decarbonation at tech, she was on our board from 2020 to 2022
https://ca.linkedin.com/in/sepanta-dorri-48233910
With the RNS due shortly I wonder if anyone want to hazard a guess on what the FS will come in at for A2?
Remember they did get some of the equipment on the cheap
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/HZM/acquisition-of-ferronickel-processing-equipment-wpeulds3svyp3xj.html
Wassa I know you love a spreadsheet, contrarian you know everything that has happened and is yet to happen so if you guess last as you’ll obviously win :)
I’ll go first with £385million, higher or lower.
The appointment of Fernando Marino as Ops Directors would seem a good start in getting it to nameplate as quickly as possible, he did it at various mines including Onca Puma. where they reached record production under his guidance
He was appointment in August I wonder if he's had had a hand in all the extra costs?
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/HZM/operations-director-appointed-for-araguaia-project-6ibvncc8siak6zf.html
This article was shared on the twitter group, I found it really interesting.
I know many have added the maths regarding the funding gap and estimates varied wildly and but until reading this I hadn’t but two and two together regarding where those differences came from, I guess I’m not the only one
THE TAKEAWAY IS THAT HORIZONTE HAD MORE THAN ENOUGH MONEY TO BUILD A1 SO THEY DON’T HAVE TO FIND ALL THE INCREASE!
An original capex of 537 million increased by the provisional 35% cost rise is 725 million
429 million has been spent already, HZM still has already agreed loans in place 131 million yet to be drawn and 93 million in cash allocated to the project for a total of 653 million.
This means that while the increase is around 187 million the gap is somewhere around 72 million.
Horizonte has an additional 13 million for the daily running costs and 16 million to fund continue developing Vermelho, we are hardly at the looking down the back of the sofa stage and the lights will be staying on for a while yet.
Apologies to those who already know this, it wasn’t until I read the article that it really clicked for me and the 180 million banded around was scaring me a little.
https://investingstrategy.co.uk/mining/horizonte-minerals-trick-or-treat/
With reference to future demand
1.9 million cyber trucks currently on order made of 300 grade stainless steel, 6 to 20% of which is nickel. Elons going to want that coming from clean environmentally sound sources
https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=why+is+the+cybertruck+made+of+stainless+steel&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&hl=en-gb&client=safari
https://www.pennstainless.com/resources/product-information/stainless-grades/300-series/
Has been if you’re going to draw attention to Barro alto for comparison perhaps mention the $1.9 billion it cost to build in 2011 to produce 34,000 tonnes. Even with the latest cost increase it puts what Hzm are doing into perspective
Want more??????? remember theirs always araguia North / Serra do tapo, the future mine nobody bothers to talk about, trucking distance to the refinery at either mine
https://horizonteminerals.com/news/20210401_HZM-SDT-MRE-NI-43-101.pdf